Professor Ferguson,

If Network Theory is useful as a model for thinking about historical parallels, there may be other models from science and engineering that could be useful too.  Some of these describe systems that work well within a given environment.  They all work with feedback as a key component.  This is something that should be considered in government and other human endeavors.  How do we create structures that have good feedback?

Structures

What is the function of Democracy?  At the time of the American Revolution one of the main functions was to provide a workable government but  also to prevent the re-accumulation of power by monarchy.  Voting and was limited to landowners.   Whether or not it was the intentions of the founders, the words of the Constitution and the ideas described by these words carried a lot of weight.  Eventually the process created a much richer and more robust country.

Democracy is a balanced structure.  Much of the strength of democracy lies in the balanced structure of the three branches of government.  Voting by citizens provides a type of  feedback and is essential if the system is to work.

Will democracy continue to work well?  We have new tools and new challenges.  Two important things have changed since the inception of democracy in the US.   The first is a communication technology that has profoundly changed social dynamics and continues to do so.  Second, we are hitting limits in many areas, including geographic frontiers.

Unpredictable things can happen when one hits a boundary.  When Einstein described the behavior of light, he did not focus simply on light as it traveled through space, but rather described what happened at the boundaries.  “What happens when light is reflected?”   We should ask,  “What happens to democracy when it hits a wall?”   What resources do we have, and can we respond soon enough?  Do we have the structures in place to handle the changes?

The concept of Empire offered structure and a way to organize people at all levels.   China has a non-democratic form of government with a structure.  China may eventually get it right because they allow for a fresh look every 5 years plus an ability to change course as needed.   This may be changing however with Xi Jinping.

Competition

The first of your killer apps, competition, helps provide the gradient needed to drive the political process for choosing people as leaders.   A structure without competition is like a TV that is not plugged in.  The components are all there, but the electrons must give up some energy to drive the circuits as they slide down the gradient of 110 volts. Competition also helps to drive a thriving economy, but when it comes to finding useful information, mainstream media and education may be inadequate.  They may not be malicious but simply unable to keep up.

In true competition there should be players and there should be judges.  In the case of political races, the politicians are the main players and the people take the role of judge.  In an economy, one business is pitted against others to provide goods and services.  Consumers then judge which one is best by voting with their pocketbook.

In the free flow of ideas among the media, or in finding useful information, the role of player and judge is less clear.   As you point out, user engagement is the primary concern of companies such as Facebook.  Their ad model of revenue pulls in information of any kind – good and bad.   Most of mainstream media use the ad model for at least some if not all of their revenue.

Culture is connected and formed at the intersection of the environment and a genetic population.  If either changes then the culture changes.  A Clash of Civilizations is really a clash of stories, stories about how to survive in a particular environment at some point in time.  Conflict arose when people started to travel.   This mixture can potentially be good however.  Just as the constitution and establishment of democracy brought in new ideas, this hybrid of ideas can inform people on how to survive in a new and changing world.

Competition in the area of finding useful information should be competition on the receiving end of the information, among small local groups, even if they are discussion national issues.  The competition is used to find useful or interesting information.   Results of this competition can even be used for feedback on specific policies or general political issues.   Competition can be used in examination and reading of history when our education system does not or cannot do it.

Competition with a simple structure can be used for finding and filtering useful information and to filter out junk news.  The filter is the result of the competition itself.  This is not to dictate what people believe, but can help greatly in finding alternative pathways for problem solving.   If more censorship is carried out by private corporations or by the online crowd, this can be countered with the right kind of competition.  There needs to be a goal, a structure, and a gradient, plus adequate feedback.

Conservative Values

Einstein’s work was not accepted by many until it was verified with experiments.   Political values, both from the Left and Right, should apply in some fashion to many communities at the local level.  What would Conservative values and laws at a local level (town, city, county) look like?   What would Socialist or Communist values and laws look like?  These could be tested and compared on similar scales.

Most conservatives thinkers who have a public life only write about the pros of conservatism and the cons of left wing ideas.  They don’t carry out any experiments to test their ideas, though this could be done.

Choosing Democracy:Moving forward and solving problems.

John Anderson, referring to young voters who seem to reject democracy, made this statement followed by a question,  “We have so much.  What has gone wrong?”  It may be that we are losing purpose, both as individuals and larger groups.  At the same time we can see many voters want to see action on real problems.   This should favor the party in power that can tax and spend, giving at least the appearance that they are doing something and that the economy is growing.

Political and media commentators talk about growth in stock values, growth in the number of housing starts, and number of jobs.  But growth can be more than growing the economy and building more houses.  Biological models can be instructive here too, with growth at the cellular and organ level.  It is not simply a growth in height or weight, but a kind of growth that leads to an improved ability to handle a broader challenge and to increase stability.

This kind of growth also requires a goal, structure, gradient, and feedback.  The structure does not have to be a formal institution, but have some dimensions agreed upon by players.

Max Weber defined the state as that entity with a monopoly on the use of coercive power.  Empires of the past took land and property by force, then imposed structure and organization.  Both the political left and right view their main source of power as coming from DC which has that monopoly on coercive force, though some on both sides also put faith in local power.  Changing things more slowly over time can be done by paying attention to feedback and placing sensors in the right places.

Running an experiment is an act of constructing a question.  In society, who asks the questions?  This is a key part of feedback and needs to be considered carefully.

The success of China’s experiments will depend in large part on the quality of their feedback. Coercion makes it more like a project than an experiment, however.  Then there is no guarantee of success in solving social and political problems. In real competition whoever figures out the feedback problem will win the day.