Month: January 2025

A New Story to Avoid Nuclear War

Posted on by josuter

A New Story to Avoid Nuclear War

I was a young boy when my father told me something that I realized was not true.  I loved and admired my father, but why would he do that?  Maybe he believed it.  Maybe that’s what his father told him.  Both grew up in different times and different environments.  For that I could forgive him. 

When the environment changes, the story must change.  A powerful story must touch reality at some point yet leave room for imagination.  Culture is a collection of stories that work and have value in a particular environment.

Metaphors reflect our vision and understanding of the world.  We think in metaphors and use them to influence other people too.   Memes are metaphors with feet.  Allistair Crook says the fever of misleading memes should be broken.  But how do we do that?   It takes a long time for a bad meme to burn out.  Because of this lag it may be necessary to take counter measures simultaneously at multiple levels.   

The Story of The Emperor’s New Clothes is just as true today as it was when written nearly 200 years ago. The Big Lie in the tale was not that the Emperor had no clothes.  That fact was evident.  The Big Lie was that people who could not see the new clothes were stupid.  This made people shut up.  When political leaders are afraid to look weak, it increases the resistance to finding Useful Information, both for themselves and others. In the same way, censorship destroys language.  People hide what they mean and some others may create a new language.   

Israel needs a New Story.  Their Old Story worked in the past but not today in this new and different environment.  Can they forgive their fathers, or will they continue to be prisoners of an Old Story?  

Environment

By themselves supersonic missiles (SSM) can be viewed as a dangerous and destructive weapon.  But this is a nuclear weapon environment.  If only the Big Players have SSM’s they will simply be another weapon on the shelf and potentially destabilizing.  As a part of a larger system with feedback loops, SSM’s can be distributed to both nuclear and non-nuclear countries where they could be a stabilizing force, allowing us to back away from the Nuclear War precipice. 

Even several SSM’s fired by mistake or by malice will not destroy the whole world.  There will be time to investigate.  On the other hand, detonation of a single nuclear weapon will likely lead to thousands of them being launched.  Henry Kissinger noted that after the first nuclear weapon is launched everything beyond that point becomes unpredictable.  So it is highly likely that all the missiles will be launched.  Consideration of the atomic bombs dropped on Japan during WWII are not helpful in thinking through this problem since the United States was the only one who had them at that time.  This situation is more like the old-fashioned gun fight with two gun-slingers – except we are using nuclear guns and everybody dies, including the crowd.  Is this how we will treat God’s Creation, this great and miraculous Creation? 

Jonathan Schell’s book “The Gift of Time” was a reflection on the luck – or maybe providence – that kept us from using nuclear weapons in the decades since WWII.  But time can be so short and even disappear when leaders have only minutes to make a decision that will affect the fate of the world.  “He who hesitates loses”.  We must not put anyone in that position.  Yet some leaders believe that a nuclear war can be won.  That is the Story they tell each other – but it is misleading.  

Motivation of those who are Gender-Queer might be, in part, a statement that the alpha male model does not work anymore.  The alpha male model has brought us this far but continuing along the same path will lead to destruction of everything.  The risks go up even further when more nations want nuclear weapons.  Yet Queer people want to be protected too, so we and they must find some other type of defense.  

Nuclear weapons are not a “great equalizer” as some have said, but rather a “great destroyer”.  They warp reality and make individuals blind.  SSM’s could be a key stabilizer  and function to keep the larger system stable, but only if distributed among all nations and using interlocking regional groups.   

Types of Power

A Story can definitely have power but it must match the environment.  It should be obvious that we need other types of power.  It may be up to citizens to find and use those powers since current leaders are too busy and may have no motive to do so.  

Education is power.  30 years ago, Jackie Jackson, a public school teacher speaking as a guest on The Newshour, clearly stated that the value of education is survival of the group, not just getting a job.  We argue over school funding while the Russians educate their students in STEM subjects, allowing Russia to build SSM’s while the US  lags behind. 

Government, business, and mainstream media use BOG (Barrel-Of-a-Gun), money, and information as tools of power.  This aligns with the task of government to set boundaries, business to produce goods and services, and media to gather and filter information.  

These types of power might be called Type I or material powers since a person who possesses them has power.  Type II and III powers are process-structure types of power and include Division of Labor (DoL), Competition, PIE Games, Feedback (FB), Bottlenecks (BN), Focusing on a Few (FoF), or changing Target Learners (TL). 

Other types of power include: Discovery of better Questions, Discovery of Points of Resistance, Creation of New Stories, and various Information Games.  These are all types of power if they help to get things done. Organization itself might be considered a power, though it may be more a manifestation of power since many organizations will collapse when the power is shut off.  

What is the purpose of the Nation-State?   

The Treaty of Westphalia that ended the 30 Year’s War in 1648 was the result of exhausted warriors agreeing on some boundaries and promising to keep their hands off others’ property.  Since that time the Nation-State has evolved to become the primary protector of its citizens, plus creating a stable and predictable environment.  So the Nation-State can evolve, but can it change itself?   How?  And in what direction?  Feedback will be key.  

Can democracy handle these increasingly complex issues?  How do we Start?  Thinking about HOW we talk can be power.   

Small seed groups (2 or 3 people) can start something with one of these powers.  A discussion or debate does not have to save the world.  It only has to take one step or discover one idea.  The next step is a “process” discussion like “How do we get this idea into a larger group?”  Alternating Issue Debates with Process Debates will move us forward. 

We cannot simply point out mistakes or accuse someone of “hubris”.  There is hubris at every level, even among children who are unable to hear others from a lower station.  Maybe it’s boredom or not wanting to repeat things already learned.  Maybe it is a fear of looking bad or an effort to maintain the social hierarchy.   So we must help find a new path.  

Triple Play

Posted on by josuter

Triple Play 

by josuter

Social media and political podcasts have played an essential role in keeping the integrity of journalism alive.  It is essential for change.  In truth however, these podcasts are becoming a bit boring.  Mearsheimer seems too predictable, and sure, it’s fun to be a part of J-Nap’s club with his half-million followers, but what are he and his followers doing to end the forever wars?  It will take more than just getting angry or projecting ad hominem attacks.   

Leaders don’t care what citizens think.  We must make them care.  We must make them listen and change course.  The courts are too slow, and mainstream media is controlled by vested interests who hide the truth, only reporting what they find convenient.  This creates a glass ceiling for useful information.  We cannot reclaim democracy just at the ballot box.  It is time to move to the next level.   It is time for a Triple Play.

ONE-  Temple University  

The Question is “What is Anti-Semitism and what is Not?”  The goal here is to put decision-making back in the hands of Temple students.  Except for extreme cases, students should be able to judge what is anti-semitic and decide on a reasonable consequence.   We as individuals and Small Groups (SG) from all over the country can focus on Temple for a few weeks, pushing ideas and information to them.  This means up to and including public humiliation of those who abuse language or abuse their official position of power.  Don’t know anyone who attends Temple?  Maybe, but you probably know someone who knows someone else . . . we are all connected.    

TWO – 2,3,4th Tier Diplomats for Ukraine

The fact that our leaders are not talking with the Russians is frankly a sign of immaturity.  Citizens can playact diplomacy as an alternative channel for communications and publish their results.  We can cross borders with translators, using people of almost any age.  Just nominate someone and support them.  Create a Division of Labor for finding and filtering Ideas and Information.  Efficiency and integrity are top priorities.  This is not a social club.

THREE – Deconstruct Nuclear Weapons (NW)  

Nuclear weapons treaties are good but temporary.  In the long run treaties are not enough.   An increasing number of nations want Nuclear Weapons.  Therefore the chance of an accident goes up.  Decisions about whether or not to launch thousands of NW must be made within minutes.  A “launch” order will mean the end of human civilization.  Survivors – if any – will be in survival mode. Deconstruction of NW at this point in time is the better option.  NW can be replaced with Precision Kinetic Missiles (PKM) that are not nuclear, but they are precision and travel at supersonic speeds, from 5-10 times the speed of sound.  At the time of this writing there is no way to stop them.  i.e. There is no defense against PKM’s.  All countries, both Nuclear and Non-Nuclear should be part of an offensive PKM group of 3 or more nations.  PKMs can be triggered to work the same as a NW or set to trigger even faster.  A system of 3 or more PKM’s can be aimed at the capital city of a nearby nuclear nation, arriving sooner than a conventional missile.  This system is safer than any system of Nuclear Weapons.  A nation targeted by several PKM’s may need to find new leadership, but the country will survive.  This will remove reasons for the continued existence of NW.  

It is unlikely that Nuclear nations will institute this system by themselves.  Non-Nuclear nations, like responsible older siblings, must take the initiative to set up such a system.  

The leadership in the West has been wrong about many things during these forever wars, including estimating the strength and resources of both our allies and our opponents.  Inadequate information led to an incomplete mental models and poor understanding of the situation.  We will be unable to respond to changing environments – political, social, or natural environments – without better information filters.   

We must go beyond what our leaders can envision.  Humiliation should only be a last resort for people who cannot listen and learn.  We must look for more than someone to save us.  We need to develop communication channels and processes to find practical solutions.

Each of the items listed in this Triple Play will require some Person-to-Person (P2P) communication.  This can be difficult to get started.   For many reasons, P2P may be the site of greatest resistance to change.  It is the place of greatest fear, especially if one of the persons is holding a gun.  It is also the place of greatest love and greatest sacrifice. Democracy is won or lost at this level.  It is foundational.     

We must push others to make decisions.  Push them uphill.  The Temple students must not only be allowed to take control of the Sem-Anti-Sem issue but pushed to take responsibility for making judgements and considering consequences.  This is part of their education.  

We must find places and ways to increase our ability to ask good questions and search for Useful Information.  Play with the Question.  Try a hypothetical situation.  SGs may be the best place to start and try to figure out how to move useful information and ideas.  SGs can be started with few friends who strategize, then maybe pass flyers with Questions or Ideas around the neighborhood community (even anonymously to start).  i.e.  “How do you (we) know anything about issue X?”  Keep below radar until there is some momentum. 

Big issues will require some planning and Division of labor for Information Gathering (DIG). Yet each smaller part can be started by a small, local group.   We are not selling anything.  We are challenging others to play ball.  

Feedback to the Future

Posted on by josuter

Feedback in Nuclear Weapon Control Systems and Society

Precision Kinetic Missiles (PKMs) like the Oreshnik, some say, are a game changer.  Yet missiles are still being fired into Russia from Ukraine with NATO’s help.  The argument in this paper is that PKMs will not be a game changer unless they are part of a larger system with adequate feedback.  

We are now on the edge of a nuclear war, an apocalypse with no winner.  No nations will remain.  There will be no democracy.  If any people survive, they will be in survival mode.  The situation now is more dangerous than the Cuban Missile Crisis with talk of preemptive strikes by Rear Admiral Buchannan who himself does not realize that we cannot “win”.  He is not getting the information, the feedback that he needs to make better decisions.  But he is not alone.  More nations now believe they will be safer if they obtain nuclear weapons.  This may seem true if leaders see no other options or pathway to ensure their safety.  

Because of the ever-shortening time period to make a decision whether to launch a nuclear weapon (now 5-10 minutes), the first use of any nuclear weapon is likely to begin an all-out nuclear war and the end of humanity.  This risk is increased if there is no direct connection between the White House and the Kremlin.  

Complex systems cannot operate without good feedback to keep the system stable.  This feedback is often from sensors that may be quite small but that give important signals under specific conditions.  What we call international politics is a type of system that is quite complex, but it is still a system.  

Examples of feedback:  1.  The thermostat that helps to regulate the temperature of a room.  In most cases this can be adjusted by people in the room, though that may not be true in large conference rooms.  2.  Airplane landing gear must be in an up or down position.  This information on landing gear position is sent from the sensor directly to the decision maker – the pilot.  3. The human body has many systems that work together. Each system has sensors that detect changes and give feedback directly to keep that system stable.  The person’s brain may or may not be aware of any changes.  It is a marvel of engineering and worthy of study.   

Leaders in international politics are imagined to be in control.  We assume they have the necessary information to make good decisions.  Comparisons to a chess game are often used but one thing that Prime Minister Netanyahu has shown us is that leaders who think they are grand masters are actually part of the game and can be taken out.  

The power of PKMs is reflected in the words: “Precision” means it will hit the target exactly.  “Kinetic” refers to the fact that the missile is going so fast at supersonic speeds that it needs no payload to explode.  The kinetic energy is proportional to the square of the velocity and all of this energy will easily destroy the target.  Supersonic speeds also mean – as of this date – that there is no way of stopping or intercepting them.  

If one steps back and looks at the whole system, PKM’s make sense if they are under the control of small groups of nations and pointed to the head and critical infrastructure of the nearby larger nuclear states.   PKMs are thus only a game changer if part of a larger System feedback design.   Three countries, both nuclear and non-nuclear act as one sensor and must agree to fire their PKMs at the Headquarters of Nuclear Nations if anynuclear weapons are detonated.  Misfiring of a PKM by accident will not be nearly so destructive as a nuclear weapon, and the reasons for the misfire of the PKM can be found and corrected.  

PKMs can be given to or developed by groups of 3 non-nuclear, smaller countries to start this system of feedback, even if the larger nuclear countries decline.   Larger nuclear countries will join when they realize that this system is safer.  We can then begin to de-construct all nuclear weapons. 

If nuclear weapons are gone, the feared power shift from West to East will not be so large and imbalances can be addressed in other ways.  If 2025 is to be anything, it must be the year to construct feedback loops, especially for control of nuclear weapons.  This effort can start at any level, from Discussion and Discovery Groups, to the Congressional level. 

John Suter Communication Research

January 1, 2025