Treatment for Nervous States

This is a response to William Davies book “Nervous States”

Treatment for Nervous States                                                                                  by josuter

It is important to identify the problems.  The distinction between fact and fiction is a necessary one.  However, facts are only important if there is a decision to be made.  A pilot needs facts to make important decisions.  If no decision is required, then any narrative will work – until it doesn’t.  A further distinction must be made between facts that may be true, but not relevant, and not Useful.   We cannot go forward without Useful Information (UI). 

The 2008 financial meltdown was actually predicted by a small number of economists but there was no mechanism to get their arguments into the top level decision making circles.  So a large part of the problem is Finding, Filtering, and Moving UI.  Another example is that of campaign financing where money buys information channels.  But UI is the real prize here and it may be impossible for the sender (the politician) to prove their point of view.  It is possible, however, for the audience on the receiving end to construct their own filters.  

A major advancement is modern communication technology.  In your opening story about rumors causing near panic in crowd, it was communication technology that brought in the relevant information and ultimately prevented the situation from becoming worse.   Modern communication technology has drawbacks, however.  It can usually facilitate movement of information from side-to-side or broadcasting out-and-down to lower levels, but it may be nearly impossible to move UI up the ladder when one cannot get past the front desk.  

Consider the Questions that are thrown at us, the Metaphors and Stories that make the pieces of our culture.  Do they make sense?  Useful Information will never be 100% but maybe enough to act.  The all-important Question is “How do you know . . . X ?”   How do you know if what the media just reported is true?  What is missing?  This task may require a division of labor with filters to test the integrity of it all. 

One definition of sin is a break in a relationship.  This seems to be what is happening between the leadership and citizens in many countries.  It can be repaired by the actions of a few people at the top, but if that does not happen it will require a more concerted effort.  Vincent Bevins (If We Burn) notes that over the past few decades, social movements have not had the lasting effect that previous ones seemed to have.  Governments may be willing to tolerate demonstrations but not real change.  So change must be more subtle – maybe a change in direction or a change of the tools we use.  

Finding, Filtering, and Moving UI (FFMUI) will be a key to both unlocking the problem and for treatment of the situation.  It will require some creative thinking and use of other types of power besides barrel-of-a-gun or the power of money.  Other powers might include Division of Labor, Competition, and Targeted Feedback to name a few.  A Dynamic Democracy would incorporate many of these other powers, some of them being the power of the groups of people who are chosen in a random fashion with their own panel of judges.

The Nation-State as a mental construct has power because people act together and decide on rules and boundaries.  But Nation-States can evolve, however, by putting mild counter stress on the system in the right places.  We cannot wait for the unfocused energy of the crowd.  Rather, we can structure the growth in the proper direction, like bracing a growing tree to grow upright.  We can also push others to make some decision, even if that decision is a  small one.  Sports-like friendly competition to find and filter UI can also be useful.  

A social hierarchy has many layers, each layer using and sometimes abusing the layer below.  This is how bad feelings between various groups get started.  What are people asked to do by their leaders?  Some religions require 5 prayers each day.  Many find it to be a source of strength.  We cannot wait for extreme emotion to motivate crowds.  We need to go into neighborhood communities and challenge individuals and small groups.  

Standing at the starting line with a thousand runners ready to begin a race, the energy is palpable.  Crowds can certainly feel and act differently than the interaction within small groups and individuals.  We can still use competition in new ways, even with small groups. It may work start from outside the group.  After all, we are social animals.  We can push UI to other individuals and groups to push them uphill.  This is the reverse of Stories in the Old Testament where other tribes were pushed downhill and vanquished.  We can change the story.  Are those guys the enemy or are they our younger siblings?  It makes a difference.

Here in parts of the US we are starting a local process called Discovery Games (DG) with a dozen people who push other people to discover new ideas and information.  We challenge players to take the game and run with it on their own.  

Un-Corrupting the CIA

Our Secret                                                                                                       by josuter

Corruption in the CIA is closely linked to keeping secrets, those things that only you and a few others know.  It’s real power.  Ask any 6-year old.  Corruption, as defined by an engineer, is about elements on a circuit board that are simply not working as they should, so we say they have become corrupt and need to be replaced.  It’s not about being good or bad.  We all have good and bad in varying ratios.  

Graham Fuller, ex-CIA analyst, says “I don’t know how you ‘un-corrupt’, if you will, an organization like CIA   . . . and I suspect ‘un-corrupting’ really means establishing an organization in which there is an openness and willingness to speak truth to power and not be afraid and twist it.”   This may be wishful thinking.  After all, finding hidden information is the nature of the work of the CIA. 

Take a group of top-level business people meeting in a secluded room.   The first thing they do is fix prices.  The walls that surround these people offer privacy and secrecy.  Common sense would suggest more transparency, but if secrets are exposed a scapegoat will be offered for public humiliation, leaving the system unchanged.  This happens at all levels and areas of society.   It’s a part of how social hierarchies are made and maintained.  We may not need transparency per se, but a way to separate useful information from the person who has that information.  

Finding good questions will help.  Finding good people can help too, but good feedback is really the key and can make up for weak questions and imperfect people.  Good feedback depends greatly on the immediate environment.  Who is in the room with you?  What are their expectations, spoken or unspoken?  What is their position and power over you?  How confident can you be of their advice or of other options?  Is one surrounded by people who celebrate a New Gaza Resort – all the while looking at others around them, carefully watching for the reaction in others too?  Or is one surrounded by Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS), generally a saner group of people.   

Recognizing the impossibility of getting the whole truth, one can get a good approximation with a structured approach.  A “First Person Reviewer”, i.e. the boss who wants better information, can assign a question to 2 or 3 small teams with several people on each team, hand-picked by the boss of course.  The questions should be hand delivered and include the names of others on each team.    “I want a one-page report back tomorrow with all your signatures.”  This may remove some of the boss’s ability to reward or punish but he or she will get better information.  

Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle states that one cannot know both the exact position and the momentum of any particle.  It’s either one or the other.  So a boss can either retain his or her ability to reward and punish individuals – or get better information – but not both.   The goal is to trap the truth, not the person.  Still, it may be important to get rid of compulsive liars, something that can be done using a similar approach.  

Herb Simon was known for his study of decision making and the theory of Bounded Rationality.  Many people say that this means you simply get someone with a lot of experience who will just make their best guess.  But what does the word “bounded” mean?  It is more than simply trimming off the less probable options.  Rather, it may reflect the importance of the group structure and process.