Author: josuter

WinDG

Posted on by josuter

WinDG

Problem:  Democracy cannot function without good sources of information.    

Stories can be factually correct and still misleading if framing is incorrect or key parts omitted.  The same can be said for “truth”.   A better concept is “useful information”.   Useful Information (UI) implies a need for ideas and information to complete a specific task or answer a specific question.  It may require a search and more discussion.  

How do we even talk with people who have their own facts, or seem uninterested, or intent on building a counter narrative?   We can challenge them to a game of discovery.  We may discover new things too.  The tools of discovery involve the creation of small group structures to help find and filter useful information. Organizers of such groups can even make a small profit, a Win!   How do we start?

Good Question

We are all asked questions by family, friends, and teachers early in our own development.  Many of us will learn how to ask ourselves good questions.  Leaders and talking heads ask questions too, some of which are rhetorical questions – to which, of course, they have the answer.  Some questions are intended to mislead or incite some action in the audience.  The point here is that these questions initially come from someone else, even an outsider.  These may or may not be the best questions.  With a bit of practice and a few other people, we can learn to frame the problem, develop better questions, and search for solutions in a more efficient and effective manner.   

How Do You Know?  

This question, “How do you know – anything?” is an essential question to make progress toward solutions.  If this question is not asked, people don’t know that they don’t know.  Trusting the source is often equated with trusting the information.  The opposite is equally true, i.e. not trusting (or not liking) the source will lead us to reject information from them. 

Create Information Filters with Discovery Games (DG)

One can create an information filter on the receiving end (not the broadcasting end) by using Small Groups (SG) of people divided randomly into teams with a few players each, plus some judges, also picked randomly, who can decide which team has the best information and wins the prize.  This is real competition for a short period of time – minutes, hours, and sometimes days if the search time must be extended. Players and Judges (PJ’s) are mixed and remixed as needed.  Outsiders who may believe different facts can be invited a few at a time and folded into the mix.  One does not have to argue with them in public.  Simply challenge them to bring their facts to the game.  

Play Ball

Discovery Games follow the model of sports, except that the goal is to find and filter ideas and information rather than to hit a ball into the net.  There will be look-alikes who swear they have found the truth, but their results can be run through another filter at any level.  Which one will you believe?  The process must be efficient and take almost no time of the organizer or sponsor.   PJ’s can even start their own game.  If necessary, they can each put in a small bit for a prize to help focus their minds for a short period of time.  

Push the Process

DG’s can be useful, but the real power lies in pushing the DG process itself to other small groups and other communities.  Starting a new DG in another place can be the goal of a preliminary DG. Getting outsiders to use DG’s may require a larger starting prize, but not too high.  The prize should be just enough to hold attention for the duration of the game.  

And what issues?  What is the Discussion Question (DQ)?   It can be almost anything in which better information could make a difference, but there is really no limit.  It could be a personal question, a local issue within a church or school.  Even national and international issues are fair game. 

Campaign finance is often associated with ‘getting out the message’.  The number of votes received often correlates with the amount of money spent but this is not always the case.  It should be about finding better information.  Better information in political campaigns can be achieved with a DG-type filter.  This requires debates within the private team setting before presentation to each panel of  judges.  Debate is essential.  Andy Grove, CEO of Intel during an especially turbulent transition period, learned the importance of having a vigorous debate before making decisions that would affect the whole company.   Democracy now needs more real debates on many issues and at many levels.  

DG’s are not a social gathering. The goal is the finding and filtering of useful information.  Players can use any source of information.  Keep prize money local and offline if possible.  Challenge other small groups.  They must often make the discovery themselves.  An example might be a tobacco company who want to make cigarettes in a local factory to provide jobs.  Not everyone believes that is a good idea for their long-term health. 

Win Win Win

Readers of this web site (YOU) can start a DG and make a profit.  Your added value lies in organizing people who may not normally talk with each other.  You are giving them the tools to move forward on some issue.  Once people understand the game and want to play, they can contribution a small amount of money.  You keep 10% for organizing the game.  

You do not have to be the moderator, however.  Simply invite a dozen people (5 minimum) and divide them into 2 or 3 teams of Players, plus Judges (PJ’s).  Give a DQ (Discussion Question) and a time limit.  Teams meet in private.  Judges decide on the winning team and a prize is awarded.  Players and Judges can be re-mixed (or not) and the next DQ is announced.  This process is repeated until PJ’s find better information or have something to act on.  Follow-up to an action can be done with the same structure.

Why is privacy important?  Why is competition important?  These can be Discussion Questions for a game.  The DQ process must be transparent to the PJ’s, enough so that they can trust the results.  First games can start with any Discussion Question and then move toward more serious issues.  

Push Uphill

Once players understand the game structure they will expand its applications to other groups and other communities, near and far.  Competition can be with any other group and on any issue. Pushing one community uphill toward sustainability can be a series of games with many parallel DG groups focusing on that one community.  Why push others uphill?  Because a lot can be learned and brought back home to use.  Plus it can be fun. 

MWG

Posted on by josuter

MWG   (“There’s a Man With a Gun over there. . .”by josuter October 2025

These lyrics to a 1967 song by Buffalo Springfield were written during the Vietnam era, just before the violent Democratic Convention and Kent State shootings.  Fear was in the air.   The gun was a symbol of power.  The gun is near the top of the list of inventions that changed the course of history.  Guns can exert force at a distance, overtaking factors of strength and speed as survival mechanisms. 

In the halls of leadership guns have a constant effect on the course of history.  The guard with a sidearm prevents unwanted people from entering the office of the leader.  This is not all bad since it keeps order, but in keeping order, it also keeps out people who have different ideas and unwanted information.  Leaders are not stupid people, yet over time they become ignorant about what they should know.  They receive skewed information on the basis of the selection of people in the room.  This is a weak link in democracy and it favors the good salesman or lobbyist with a bag full of money.  

Guns not only protect the integrity of money and contracts but have been an essential tool of empire building.  Guns, money, and information form the top 3 powers of government.  Other types of power involve more time and organization.  In the short run, guns and money will always attempt to control information too, but this is tricky.  Democracy will not work without good sources of information.  Yet it is obvious that if guns control social structure, who’s in and who’s out, then guns can control ideas and the flow of information.  

Metaphors 

Information comes thru all our senses, but spoken and written languages are basic tools for storing, moving, and manipulating ideas and information.  Metaphors especially are a powerful tool of communication and provide tools for thinking and conveying ideas.  Metaphors and mental models can help or hinder solutions.  They must reflect reality accurately.  A “head of state” is not like the “head” of a human or animal and does not function in the same way.  The better, more accurate metaphor is “Guys with Guns”, since this more accurately reflects the source of power.  

Religion and Political Power 

Powerful stories too must touch reality at some points to be effective.  They cannot be totally fiction.  Gaza has gone awry because of a Story that does not apply.  The age-old conflict between Politics and Religion continues today.  All religions have an internal logic, even if one does not agree with the premise.  Their own internal logic might be used to find a way out of this conundrum by searching for inconsistencies.  Is our God only the God of our small group, or the God of all?  Is our God a living God?  If the answer is ‘yes’ to both of these questions, then the Story can change to find solutions to real problems.  

Even the definition of a word can have a powerful effect on our behavior.  Are the people on the other side “the enemy”?  or are they “the younger sibling?”  Taking this latter position puts us in the role of the older, more responsible sibling, and our behavior is allowed to change.  The words “War” and “Peace” are associated with the Nation-State rather than the “skirmish” of smaller groups.  Conflicts may always be with us if we choose that path.  We have a choice.  In any case, peace is a byproduct of better communication.  

The Emperor’s New Clothes (ENC) and the Dynamics of Fear 

The story of the Emperor’s New Clothes is not a story about ignorance but about fear.  It may be the fear of saying something stupid, or fear of being left out.  It might be fear of looking weak, especially at top levels of power.  In the story of ENC everyone at some level knew the emperor had no clothes, but it was fear that paralyzed them and kept them from saying anything.  This story repeats over and over again today.  It keeps us from responding or asking questions.  We can begin to address this fear by creating structures that provide some cover for people who may want to raise appropriate questions and comments.  

Social Structures Change Information

As with the gun, an intentional and temporary structural change of social groups can change the flow of useful information.  A different Structure and Process (SP) can bring different Questions to the table.  This is true for groups of all size.  As an example, a Select Security Council (SCC) in the United Nations might engage a small number of nations with special veto power as part of their specific SCC, whether it be agriculture, water, education, healthcare, etc.  This would make the UN more effective and responsive. 

Systems and Feedback – We Create our own Filters

Systems need feedback as a source of useful information, both from inside and outside.  Good feedback is required to make a system function properly.  If democracy is to be more than simply a way to divide the spoils, it must have a larger purpose and a way to solve practical problems.  Democracy needs better feedback at many levels.  

Sensors in a system can be quite small and dedicated to the measuring one thing such as temperature, or measuring the concentration of some element.  This information is directed back to a control panel designed to control larger machinery that will correct the balance and direction of the system.  Social feedback in groups is more complex since body language and tone of voice must be considered alongside ideas and information. Sensors in society might be small groups that are structured to find and filter information in a way that will give useful information to decision makers and to other people.  

End of the Nation-State?    Western hegemony can rightly be viewed as an Empire.  The idea of a Nation-State in Europe was adopted in 1648 after an exhaustive 30-year war and ending with the Treaty of Westphalia.  This system was relatively stable for hundreds of years.  Now there is some question about whether the Nation-State is up to the task to carry mankind forward.  Is there adequate feedback to people making important decision makers?  Those who would de-construct the nation-state must show new pathways to address social issues.  This will require a division of labor to handle the information on the many problems that will arise.   

Forming a new political party will take too long to address current problems.  New leaders may become corrupt by the time they come into office.  A faster and more effective way to make change is the formation of feedback loops within a system that has gone awry.  Feedback sensors within social groups can start with a handful of people who use a method to balance their own bias but keep the process moving.  The other factor for large scale change is to use a division-of-labor to divide the most pressing issues among people by their month of birth.  Those in January will have their own selected “special vote” on some issue that is different from those with a February birthday, etc.  Statistically, the outcome will be nearly the same for both large and very large groups on one issue.  Division of labor for information gathering can be done for many issues and will create better filters.  Supranational bodies such as the European Union or the United Nations seem unable to solve critical problems alone.  Maybe do not have the right structure – or they simply lack adequate feedback.  

A Way Ahead:  The Small Group Process (SGP) to Push and Pull from the Outside

Often the way out is not just putting the system in reverse.  The way down the mountain may be to go up and over to another path.  

Like learning to ride a bike or going to school, we were all pushed and pulled by someone else.  We can push and pull other groups uphill toward a future that they can make secure and sustainable.  We are not selling or recruiting but rather challenging the next group.   The small group process (SGP) can be started from the outside starting with a small group and using a PRICE mechanism.  (PRICE= Privacy of team meetings, Randomness in picking team players, Incentive, Competition, and Efficiency).  PRICE can counteract the negative social dynamics described by the ENC story.  The goal is to make the target group safe and sustainable, something that requires better communication at all levels. 

BC=Better Communication (BC) requires work and others may try to sabotage our efforts.  BC Games can be played with people we don’t really like or know.  There must be a goal or discussion question (DQ), and a time limit.  We know that guns and games can both change social interactions, but guns tend to be exclusive, whereas games are inclusive. 

Do we want the Empire to “Collapse” with all the ensuing violence? No, but any pathways of change must show how to address perennial social problems.  It will require a division of labor to find, filter, and move useful information on many issues and many levels.  Rather than the historical Mon-archy or Olig-archy the new structure must have agency at all levels – a “Poly-archy”.

The Small Group Process can re-capture the integrity of democracy by creating information filters, starting with a handful of people.  Their feedback does not start by going to a central government but rather pushing and pulling the next region, the next city, or the next neighborhood to build their own SGP and information filters.  This can even be done internationally, Beyond the Border (BtB).   The focus can be on any issue or it can be used to move the SGP to other locations.  If the goal is to make the next region, city, or neighborhood secure and sustainable, then this SGP may need to include forming their own security if police are absent or dysfunctional.  

Applications of Feedback Mechanisms

It is not enough to simply tell the truth.  We must push truth and Useful information (UI), sometimes with evidence, to decision makers, then use similar methods for follow-up.

Nation-States and their leaders seem unable to extricate themselves from a nuclear weapons buildup.  We must set a goal of zero nuclear weapons and start down that path.  Groups of 3 non-nuclear nations can form “trio sensors” that act as feedback to decision makers (DM) within nuclear nations.  The DM is someone who has their finger on the nuclear button or is close to those button-pushers.  The DM’s (along with their Family, Friends, and Colleagues) must be reminded of this on a monthly basis via letter, email, or phone call.  This monthly reminder can be made into a game and played at any level, between levels, and internationally.  

If leaders are unwilling or unable to listen and act, then the feedback becomes more pointed and intense.  The trio monitors one specific nuclear nation, and if there is imminent threat of nuclear war, or if nuclear weapons have already been used, then the non-nuclear trio will support the use highly accurate missiles to destroy the DM within the nuclear nation.  This can be done even after nuclear weapons are detonated.  This new structure may need to help re-direct a military industry that may or may not yet realize the dead-end of nuclear weapons build-up throughout the world.    

A second use of using the SG Process is creating a robust system of support in an unstable economy.  This cannot be started at the top but could be addressed with SG-type communication to improve local social dynamics in one location, then in a network.  The goal here should be to make the target group able to sustain themselves in the event of a recession, depression, or economic collapse.   

Governments cannot make everyone secure all the time.  We must push other groups to become as self-sufficient as possible.  Demonstrations are a politically acceptable way of pushing up against central powers.  But we must push in all directions.  If leaders don’t listen, SGP’s can be used to start a series of local debates.  It will be important to engage young men and women who otherwise may go off to fight someone else’s battle.  If we are to claw back democracy, we must create better information filters at all levels. 

How’s My Hair? – Questions for AI

Posted on by josuter

Will AI become self-aware?  If “sentient” is defined by the ability not only to think, but to feel, to evaluate actions, and have some degree of awareness, will AI become sentient? Will AI go into “survival mode”?  An awesome IQ is OK if it is programmed to help humans survive, but if it goes into the self-survival mode, will AI become the enemy?

For individual human beings, self-image (the hair thing) is important since we work as a group and must have some acceptance within the group.  AGI (pronounced “A Guy”) will want his name to be all caps “GUY” to give the impression that he fits right in too.  Does GUY have friends?  Does he or she need friends?  Does GUY have sex?  Silly question! . . .  I mean gender?  Does GUY have gender?  Does it matter?  

The level of AI intelligence may not be as important as who will control it.  Will it be used for the benefit of all humans – or just a select few?  One answer to that question is already shown by the fact that AI is currently being used for facial recognition in combat situations.  Britain too, is now requiring facial ID scans, while at the same time, police in Pennsylvania can wear masks to cover their faces.  Some concerned citizens are pushing back on this step toward a police state.    

GUY might decide that democracy is not the best form of government.  Could it be possible that he will decide that capitalism is not working either?  Is the Nation-State out of date?  Probably not, but changes may need to be made.  

When AI makes a decision, there will only and always be second-hand knowledge for us.   An “official advisor” will let us know, or maybe some communication robot will make a public announcement, blasting it like the 911 emergency announcements on everyone’s cell phone.  

What AI really “thinks” will turn into debates such as those over the existence of God.  Does GUY really exist?  Maybe GUY is like one of the many Gods of the Greeks and Romans.  This will certainly bring arguments among friends and neighbors, but that may be a good thing, even essential, if we are to move forward.  In any conflict, the side that communicates, i.e. talks, has a definite advantage while the other side spends their time gaslighting the public.  Debates done in private will at least find honest opinions, if not forge an answer or find a pathway to a better solution.  

What if ChatGPT is lying to us?  “How Do U Know?”  This is a key question.  We may find an answer by creating human search engines that behave as receivers or tuners to sort out misinformation from useful information.  Add competition and random mixing of teams to engage people in a search to bring back useful information to share with their team.   

In the parable-story of the Emperor’s New Clothes, there was no sudden realization that the Emperor had no clothes.  Everyone knew that at some level.  Our own knowledge of human behavior tells us this would be the case.  It was fear that kept people quiet.  Maybe they were afraid of the guards, but more likely they were afraid of looking stupid to others in the crowd.  Fear forms a major point of resistance to finding out what is really happening.  

Humans can, over years and generations, adapt to almost any change in social, political, and natural environments.  GUY may try to control the environment.  This may be an impressive talent, but probably not a good long-term strategy.    

The Key Question remains: “How do you know?”  Many fact checkers have lost their credibility or maybe the readers lost their reason to search.  Neither one has a vested interest in the survival of one specific community.  A community, or Networks of Communities (C-Net) must be the basis of morality.  In a real sense, it has always been that way.   The local community is where Maslow Needs are met and together, they form the building blocks of a larger and healthier society.  C-Nets can accept the positive parts of GUY and keep an eye on, or reject, the negative aspects.  That is how it must be if humans are to survive.  Then GUY becomes a tool and will serve mankind.  C-Nets must challenge each other and keep an eye on one another like siblings do.  

How long do we have to take control of AI?  Maybe a few years.  C-Net is probably as good as we can do in filtering the intention of GUY in relation to the survival of the group, whatever group that might be.  The Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle states that one cannot know (it is impossible) both the exact position and exact momentum of a particle at the same time.  The same may be true of information since the origins and purpose of any information can never be exact.  But we can get closer than we are now.  

Is Democracy the Problem?

Posted on by josuter

Is Democracy The Problem?                                                                                             jsuter@sbcglobal.net

Citizens blame leaders.  Leaders blame citizens.  Could it be that the problem is democracy itself?  In an interview by Danny Haiphong with Sean Foo and Richard Wolff, they discuss the inability of US business and investors to know the investing landscape.  If the current politics is unfavorable, investors only need to wait a few more years until another band of merry men and women take over.   This does not bode well for future planning.  China has a dictatorship but they still have 5-yr plans.  Russia too is not held back by a three-legged stool of democracy and seems to move faster.  

Are we seeing the end or an evolution of the Nation-State?  A complex system must change several things simultaneously if it is to maintain balance.  If only one thing is changed, the system will snap-back to what it was before, be it Deep State or whatever.  It is important to look at all aspects of our existence within the Nation-State framework.  This includes looking at the structure of government itself and analyzing what feedback mechanisms keep it on track.   

One option is to put more authority in the hands of a single regional leader, but then also make that leader removable at any time by 80% of any minority.  This would encourage communication in both directions and form a more Dynamic Democracy.  Even Israel could use a Dynamic Democracy for the benefit of everyone.  

A government which is set up only to divide the spoils will push leaders and citizens into separate spaces rather than have them work together to solve problems.   Grassroot citizens – as a group – are often ahead of their leaders, especially in the knowledge of what is happening on the ground.   Paraphrasing Friedrich Hayek: “there is often no substitute for information on the ground.”

Economics too must change if we are to address the health of the economy.  An additional currency could be added at the hyper-local level with about 100 people.  Properly used, hyper-local currencies (HLC) can be used to induce people to cooperate at the local level for the purpose of creating useful goods and services to trade on the open market.  In addition, it creates resistance to inflation and a buffer against recession.  Adding another currency at the hyperlocal level is where people can be accountable to each other without a court system. 

Banks create incentives or gradients when they direct money from one sector to another.  A business then uses that gradient power to create organization.  There are other ways however, of creating organization that can be started by people at the local level.  If ten bread winners are able to support two in their group for some period of time as determined by the group, then those two then can do any job that the group decides is important.   They answer only to the group.  This is an opportunity for grassroots engagement.  In fact, many changes may not start without grassroots.

A new type of nation-state can join with other nation-states and maybe even business to form clusters that have defensive military capabilities.  When the most powerful nation, where leaders dress in fine suits, cannot subdue one of the poorest nations where people dress like Star Wars characters, it may be time to think about different types of governing and military structures.  An Association of Non-Nuclear Nations (AN3) does not need large, impressive buildings or fancy accoutrements, yet such an organization can create a purpose and flexibility that is missing from the United Nations.  It is an exclusive club however, since nuclear nations cannot join.  

Military industries too could find other missions, arming small clusters (3) of non-nuclear nations with non-nuclear missiles, maybe even some that are supersonic.  Lots of money to be made here.  It will be defensive buildup, yet able to reach critical targets within nuclear nations.  This would remove the current advantage of nuclear weapons and point us toward a nuclear-free world.  

If war and war games are the purview of the nation-state, then anti-war games may be the purview of citizens who must otherwise make the sacrifice for war mongers.  What anti-war games look like is still unclear, but many things can be created by people at the grassroots with the goal of making the environment for a next-door neighbor or next-door country more predictable and stable.  We cannot escape the fact that much of nature is about competition, so assertiveness and even aggression may be needed if a potentially dangerous or de-stabilizing threat is detected.  The goal is to create a stable and predictable environment.  Petitions to Congress may not be enough. 

American citizens are told to “wake up!” – but sleep is not the correct metaphor.  People have the wrong story in their heads due to mis- or missing information.  Citizens can create additional information filters made up of small groups using any news source.  They then bring ideas and information back to hash it out in a private space, maybe with team competition.  This would benefit other readers and listeners of the news.   

Another tactic is to focus on one target region or town (foreign or domestic) for a short period of time with the goal of giving people the tools to making their region self-sustaining.  Others may benefit and learn from observation.   This too can be done with competitive games.  There are many places and many levels to start if there are people who see another pathway and share their vision.  One person can also set a gradient, just like a bank, only smaller, by creating an incentive for an individual or small group to answer some specific question.  

A transformed United States is more flexible and able to counteract the OBOR initiatives made by China in the developing world.  Rather than regime change, we can contribute to the developing country becoming independent and healthy.   That country will then be able to resist the OBOR initiatives – and we will gain trading partners.  

Liberty on Trial

Posted on by josuter

Liberty on Trial – Hearings on the USS Liberty                                       by josuter

This is the time for Congress to hold hearings around the attack on the USS Liberty by Israeli war planes in 1967. It may be a small bit of justice for those Americans killed, but more importantly, it will be a realization that Israel is willing to kill Americans in a white flag operation if needed to help pull the US further into the war with Iran. This is not out of the question. Hearings should be done soon. If Congress is cowed by the Zionist Lobby, there are many other places around the country where this issue can be discussed and debated.

Is it any wonder that Trump is an incessant liar? Mainstream media has ignored and covered up so much in the last decades. Mainstream media print whatever they are told. Truth-seeking media will persist in asking questions. The benefits of being an incessant liar allows Trump to lie to those power brokers around him: “I was told these were bunker-busting bombs.”

Diplomats complain that Trump does not do diplomacy in the normal way, and Trump does not read the daily intelligence briefings. Reagan and Gorbachev, meeting in Helsinki, both wanted to get rid of nuclear weapons but when they left the room the dark suits entered and nullified the intentions of their leaders. Why would Trump or Witkoff surround themselves with a group of people that cannot be trusted?

Tim Harford (“Adapt”) makes a case that new communication technology should allow more decisions to be made at the lowest level consistent with their ability to find useful information. This is in contradistinction to the man Netanyahu sitting in front of a big screen with a white cat sitting on his lap giving commands to everyone, including to Donald Strangelove.  

President Trump, either intentionally or unintentionally, is giving us a window of time to reclaim democracy. If Congress is unable or unwilling to decide on what is Anti-Semitic, this question could be decided at the institutional level, including universities and civic institutions, answering the specific question “What is Anti-Semitism?”. We know there is real Anti-Semitism and then there is the stuff that common sense simply rules out. If we cannot do this, then let’s hang up our boots.

Donald Trump, as the captain of the ship, may be willing to go down with it, taking neocons and Zionists with him. It will be a radical, but maybe necessary change to the Story of Democracy that is not just For the People, but Of and By the People.

Trump the Terminator

Posted on by josuter

Is President Trump being swallowed up by the Empire – or does he control his fate?  The assassin’s bullet was the challenge.  Game on!   This revelation may have showed him the only way forward if he were to Make America Great Again.  He would have to bring down the Jewish Lobby and its insidious influence of American society. 

The last scene of Terminator 2 plays out an accurate description of this unfolding tragedy. The character played by Arnold Swartzenegger realizes that his own brain contains the same material that will destroy the world.  He must sacrifice himself. He commands his young comrade to push the button for the power hook that will lower him, Arnold, into a cauldron of molten iron.   

If Trump is to succeed, he must keep his enemies close, thereby bringing down the Neocons and Zionists as well.  It must be a quantum drop and a shock to the system.  

The minders from the Zionist Lobby will be told to “Stay out of my office!”  Trump’s gambit may be the only way to reclaim democracy.  It cannot happen gradually when the media is controlled by The Lobby.  

A Systems Approach to Nuclear Deterrence                                                               by john suter         

Posted on by josuter

A response to a new book  “Rethinking a Political Approach to Nuclear Abolition”     

by Perkovich, Yoshida, Nishida 

The nation-state does not make decisions.  It is not a living being.  In reality, a nation-state is a group of people within a geographic border with leaders who make critical decisions.  Leaders who reflect on their use of language, stories, and metaphors will discover that the stories in their minds are highly influenced by their own circle of assistants along with the influence of lobbyists, family, friends, and colleagues.  We make decisions as individuals but gather information and tell stories as groups.  The story created includes what the world looks like, or should look like, and what the consequences might be if bad decisions are made.  The chess board on the cover page of the book indicates that many leaders are led to believe they are grandmasters playing the game.  In reality, they are part of the game too.  This fact should be recognized and used to find solutions.   

The rethinking considered in this paper may lead to reformulation of scenarios of a seemingly difficult problem, but does it bring in new ideas and new solutions?   Solutions may start to appear depending on how the problem is set up.  What are the assumptions?  What questions are asked?  What are the contingencies?  Nuclear weapons experts unable to consider other questions or outside ideas will not be able to create a new future.

New Tools, New Situations, New Imagination

New factors in a different world must be recognized.  New tools include new pathways of communication that include social media.  World travel and cross-cultural mingling has also changed the game.   Astronauts in the space station arrive there from a variety of countries and languages.  A number of high government decision makers have dual citizenship with another country.  Without arguing the pros and cons, this fact brings up the question of whether it may herald a new role in the evolution of the nation-state.  

When a problem seems too complex it can be helpful to enlarge the problem.  Complex systems must have feedback to function and to stay in balance.   In the case of nuclear weapons, the system must be enlarged to include the whole world. 

Thinking in systems can be very helpful in complex problems, allowing some people to focus on only a part of the system and then integrate that part with other parts.   In many systems, control is determined by the feedback from a small sensor to a specific decision point or control valve.  This is the target of the feedback. In the case of nuclear deterrence, the target is a specific Decision Maker who gives the command to launch a nuclear attack, but targeting the person would only happen after a nuclear weapon has been launched.  

MAD deterrence has been the underpinning of the nuclear arms race.  It makes sense that no political leader would make a decision that would eventually destroy their own country.  MAD deterrence in a systems approach for nuclear deterrence is set to “take out” (whatever that means) a Decision Maker.  To be a deterrent, however, the Decision Maker must know ahead of time what will happen to them.  This is systems thinking that could save the system – i.e. the whole world.  

But who or what is the sensor?  In a balanced and stable system, feedback can come from sensors at several sites.  In the nuclear control system, feedback could be from a Trio of Feedback Sensors, each one having at least one real person in a small group.  These small sensor groups would be distributed geographically and located in any combination of nuclear nations and non-nuclear nations, of which there are more than 150.   Even non-state actors can participate. These Trio-Feedback groups must create their own reliable communication methods and standards.  

Time to Decision

Decisions to launch or not launch are coming under increasing pressure.  One factor is simply the increasing number of countries building their own nuclear arsenal.  Even more pressure comes from the improvements in missile technology, decreasing the time to make a decision to 10 minutes or less, a very short time to decide on the fate of the world.  If there is a solid belief that an attack by an enemy is imminent, it may be smarter to strike first and to make that strike overwhelming.  Defense becomes offense.  Is this Orwellian – or is it common sense?  Military leaders exist today who make the first strike argument.  

Systems in Biological Models 

A study of other systems could be helpful in designing a system for control of nuclear weapons worldwide. There are systems in biology, for example, that control the balance of several opposing factors without catastrophic results.  The coagulation cascade that prevents blood loss in the human body is a marvel of design.  It can activate or “turn on” many cells and tissues all at once (the cascade) yet prevent the process from going too far.  And it can do all this within minutes.  A hematologist making a presentation on this subject might also comment on the general command and control mechanisms of this system.  

The Dark Suits – the Human Factor

Historically there have been presidents and their counterparts who have had the courage and creative thinking to broach the question of nuclear weapons: Reagan with Gorbachev in Helsinki, Trump with Kim Jong Un in Singapore.  As reported by people in the room, the principles were on the same wavelength and got along fine.  When the principles left the room, however, the Dark Suits entered and re-tied the Gordian Knot.  It should be common knowledge that there are a significant number of clinically paranoid people among the Dark Suits.  Without totally discounting their point of view, they should be challenged.  Testing of their view with a Discovery Game can allow anonymity but retain the integrity of ideas.  

Fear is a true motivator, and paranoid people tend to only look at power thru the barrel of a gun.  We must be more creative in thinking about and using other types of power, including how to find and move useful information, a critical task when news outlets are unreliable.  Circles of advisors have always had their own agenda but with a limited view.  If the issue of nuclear weapons is not on the agenda of the Chief of Staff, it won’t be discussed.  Leaders need better information, new ideas, and privacy of discussion away from their advisors.  

While countries now might wish to prevent a catastrophic nuclear exchange with their adversary, it is obvious that each continues to engage in many subtle and indirect ways to destroy their opponent.  In so doing, they continue to build enmity.  

There are ways to set up competition in more constructive ways and with a positive twist.  China is tied to a concept of their own making called “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR).  Using that same metaphor for leverage, it might be possible to “Break the Belt” by focusing on a few Links within that belt and make those countries (the Links) self-sustaining enough so that they do not need China.  Pushing the Link country uphill toward success rapidly would be essential, something the US might have to practice.  This process could be made into a competition and a challenge to many parts of society besides the military.

Grass Roots Groups as Monitors 

What if we get to zero?  How would that maintained?  One possibility could be to engage a group of 100 citizens in a specific geographic area, or with a specific politician to monitor.  If any rumors about new nuclear facilities arise, these citizens drop everything to “check it out” and force an answer.  This requires communication and information filtering that is robust, plus a way to organize their neighborhoods to pick up the slack from their regular jobs.  This is a systems approach that engages people as sensors, not as consumers. 

Other groups can play with hypothetical situations on almost any issue, but these should be limited in time and limited in number of people to make it efficient.  Some of this could be made into a game in the same way that military planners play war games.  

Several smaller nations are now starting a process that will give them a “latent” possibility to build their own nuclear weapons.  This is essentially useless since an all-out war will be over within a day if not within hours.  They would do better to invest in conventional military readiness which could, in reality, play a big role in limited nuclear exchanges.  Or these countries might invest in the formation of Trio-Feedback groups.  

A Story to End Israel

Posted on by josuter

Stories can be created by anyone, but stories that create a culture mostly come from people above us in the social hierarchy – people like politicians, religious leaders, parents, teachers, and older siblings.  Time-tested stories provide a structure to help guide beliefs and behavior.  When reality changes, however, the story must also change to match reality.  That is not the case with Israel.  Enemies of Israel, frustrated for decades, are setting a trap to destroy Israel.  Using a known martial arts technique, they are using the force of the opponent turned against the opponent themselves.     

Zionist Christians and Jews in United States, the largest and most powerful country, are force feeding the Zionist war machine with financial and military support.  With war as the primary mode of foreign policy, the coffers of the leaders in Israel are overflowing from well-meaning Jewish and Christian Zionists who are mostly ignorant about what is happening.  

What is happening?  Younger brother has grown up.  Younger brother has developed supersonic missiles with ranges of thousands of kilometers and using pinpoint accuracy from advanced guidance systems.  These missiles have already evaded the Iron Dome to strike military bases within Israel.  Yet Zionists are kept in the dark about this due to censorship and misinformation by government, mainstream media, and local religious leaders.  

Is there a way out?   Maybe.  First, it must be understood that God and Government are not the same.  Secondly, pressure must force better choices by the warring parties.  This pressure can come from leaders in other countries but the pressure itself can be started anywhere at any level.  Leaders must be pushed to find or create alternative pathways.  A Dynamic Democracy could allow significant input by any minority in a new government.  Grassroots people, who primarily want stability and predictability, will also have input in a Dynamic Democracy process. 

Realizing the bad blood between United States and Iran stemming from the 1979 overthrow of the Shah, third parties can host public hearings on why the Iranians felt strongly about charting their own course and their need for a change in government.  This may help to clear the air.  

Writers of the Old Testament, knowing the types of people whose minds were closed, may have been led to write about their demise.  Stories of Armageddon in the Bible may have been written specifically about the end of the Nation of Israel.  Zionists today remain unaware of the impending destruction of the land they say God has given them.  Even if nuclear weapons are used in a war between the US and Iran, Israel will be merely a footnote.  

The Old Stories will not work in a new time and new environment.  Ignorant about what is happening on the ground, Israel is going out on a limb soon to be cut off.  Ten of the Twelve Tribes of Israel are already gone.  The last two are headed for a buzz saw.  This is sad for those of us who want Israel to survive.  Tens of Thousands of Zionist supporters within the United States could rise up and demand a change in the government of Israel – but will we?  Can we imagine another future?  

Changing the Story for Israel

Posted on by josuter

Goliath got up on the wrong side of bed.  It would be a difficult day for him.  People of the Jewish faith must thank him for doing it however, since it was Goliath who provided the reason that a shepherd boy David would rise to become King.  It was not surprising that David had skill with his slingshot, having practiced daily to keep the wolves away from the sheep.  He could hit a tin can at 50 paces – or something like that. 

This is a cherished story of Judaism, yet one can imagine another chapter to the story.  Goliath, whose first name was Garth, had a younger sister Billie who had seen the whole incident.  Billie made note of the fact that Garth had not worn is helmet like his mother told him.  Billie was not going to make the same mistake.  Sure enough, on the second meeting with David, Billie was victorious and went on to become Queen of the Philistines. 

Stories can certainly be inspirational, but to be really useful they must touch reality at some point.  Fast forward to Israel today where the Iron Dome is said to keep out all the missiles. . . except they don’t.  The story of the Iron Dome has holes in it, allowing both Iran and Yemen to fire missiles into Israel. This is a problem. Once the enemy has equal or superior military force, the story must change if Israel is to survive. It does not have to be a new Story, but it must change directions and follow a new path. 

Up to this point, Israel’s solution is to “kill the enemy first” before they have a chance to strike, following a strategy conceived by the early Zionist leader Ze’ev Jabotinsky.   That might have worked during the time of Abraham and Isaac, but that was long ago.  At that time, a “nation” was a group of related tribes with no geographic boundaries.  The earth was flat and one might see only 50 miles from the top of the nearby mountain. This was their story, and it remains precious, but will it guide us today?  

We must now think not only about who the enemy is, but about who we are.  Are we an older sibling – or are we really an enemy?  This self-concept can make a difference.  Is the God we worship the God of all – or only a God for us?

Then how does one change a story?  It is not a group effort except maybe a consensus to trim a bit here and there like a hairdresser might do. It should grow from a seed from ideas of one or two people, then be compared with another story, then chosen by a third party judge who makes a “decision” (meaning “cut off”), and the process repeated. 

What can Christians do about the war in Gaza?  Christians know both the stories of Abraham and the current direction of Israel.  And we like stories.  We can help to start a new story or at least a change in the current story, and with just a few people, re-iterate the process, invite some outsiders, maybe some Jews, maybe Muslims or others. They can participate but cannot take over the process. If those invited refuse, then we develop the Story alone.  Others may eventually join in to create a new pathway ahead. 

Treatment for Nervous States

Posted on by josuter

This is a response to William Davies book “Nervous States”

Treatment for Nervous States                                                                                  by josuter

It is important to identify the problems.  The distinction between fact and fiction is a necessary one.  However, facts are only important if there is a decision to be made.  A pilot needs facts to make important decisions.  If no decision is required, then any narrative will work – until it doesn’t.  A further distinction must be made between facts that may be true, but not relevant, and not Useful.   We cannot go forward without Useful Information (UI). 

The 2008 financial meltdown was actually predicted by a small number of economists but there was no mechanism to get their arguments into the top level decision making circles.  So a large part of the problem is Finding, Filtering, and Moving UI.  Another example is that of campaign financing where money buys information channels.  But UI is the real prize here and it may be impossible for the sender (the politician) to prove their point of view.  It is possible, however, for the audience on the receiving end to construct their own filters.  

A major advancement is modern communication technology.  In your opening story about rumors causing near panic in crowd, it was communication technology that brought in the relevant information and ultimately prevented the situation from becoming worse.   Modern communication technology has drawbacks, however.  It can usually facilitate movement of information from side-to-side or broadcasting out-and-down to lower levels, but it may be nearly impossible to move UI up the ladder when one cannot get past the front desk.  

Consider the Questions that are thrown at us, the Metaphors and Stories that make the pieces of our culture.  Do they make sense?  Useful Information will never be 100% but maybe enough to act.  The all-important Question is “How do you know . . . X ?”   How do you know if what the media just reported is true?  What is missing?  This task may require a division of labor with filters to test the integrity of it all. 

One definition of sin is a break in a relationship.  This seems to be what is happening between the leadership and citizens in many countries.  It can be repaired by the actions of a few people at the top, but if that does not happen it will require a more concerted effort.  Vincent Bevins (If We Burn) notes that over the past few decades, social movements have not had the lasting effect that previous ones seemed to have.  Governments may be willing to tolerate demonstrations but not real change.  So change must be more subtle – maybe a change in direction or a change of the tools we use.  

Finding, Filtering, and Moving UI (FFMUI) will be a key to both unlocking the problem and for treatment of the situation.  It will require some creative thinking and use of other types of power besides barrel-of-a-gun or the power of money.  Other powers might include Division of Labor, Competition, and Targeted Feedback to name a few.  A Dynamic Democracy would incorporate many of these other powers, some of them being the power of the groups of people who are chosen in a random fashion with their own panel of judges.

The Nation-State as a mental construct has power because people act together and decide on rules and boundaries.  But Nation-States can evolve, however, by putting mild counter stress on the system in the right places.  We cannot wait for the unfocused energy of the crowd.  Rather, we can structure the growth in the proper direction, like bracing a growing tree to grow upright.  We can also push others to make some decision, even if that decision is a  small one.  Sports-like friendly competition to find and filter UI can also be useful.  

A social hierarchy has many layers, each layer using and sometimes abusing the layer below.  This is how bad feelings between various groups get started.  What are people asked to do by their leaders?  Some religions require 5 prayers each day.  Many find it to be a source of strength.  We cannot wait for extreme emotion to motivate crowds.  We need to go into neighborhood communities and challenge individuals and small groups.  

Standing at the starting line with a thousand runners ready to begin a race, the energy is palpable.  Crowds can certainly feel and act differently than the interaction within small groups and individuals.  We can still use competition in new ways, even with small groups. It may work start from outside the group.  After all, we are social animals.  We can push UI to other individuals and groups to push them uphill.  This is the reverse of Stories in the Old Testament where other tribes were pushed downhill and vanquished.  We can change the story.  Are those guys the enemy or are they our younger siblings?  It makes a difference.

Here in parts of the US we are starting a local process called Discovery Games (DG) with a dozen people who push other people to discover new ideas and information.  We challenge players to take the game and run with it on their own.