Treatment for Nervous States

Posted on by josuter

This is a response to William Davies book “Nervous States”

Treatment for Nervous States                                                                                  by josuter

It is important to identify the problems.  The distinction between fact and fiction is a necessary one.  However, facts are only important if there is a decision to be made.  A pilot needs facts to make important decisions.  If no decision is required, then any narrative will work – until it doesn’t.  A further distinction must be made between facts that may be true, but not relevant, and not Useful.   We cannot go forward without Useful Information (UI). 

The 2008 financial meltdown was actually predicted by a small number of economists but there was no mechanism to get their arguments into the top level decision making circles.  So a large part of the problem is Finding, Filtering, and Moving UI.  Another example is that of campaign financing where money buys information channels.  But UI is the real prize here and it may be impossible for the sender (the politician) to prove their point of view.  It is possible, however, for the audience on the receiving end to construct their own filters.  

A major advancement is modern communication technology.  In your opening story about rumors causing near panic in crowd, it was communication technology that brought in the relevant information and ultimately prevented the situation from becoming worse.   Modern communication technology has drawbacks, however.  It can usually facilitate movement of information from side-to-side or broadcasting out-and-down to lower levels, but it may be nearly impossible to move UI up the ladder when one cannot get past the front desk.  

Consider the Questions that are thrown at us, the Metaphors and Stories that make the pieces of our culture.  Do they make sense?  Useful Information will never be 100% but maybe enough to act.  The all-important Question is “How do you know . . . X ?”   How do you know if what the media just reported is true?  What is missing?  This task may require a division of labor with filters to test the integrity of it all. 

One definition of sin is a break in a relationship.  This seems to be what is happening between the leadership and citizens in many countries.  It can be repaired by the actions of a few people at the top, but if that does not happen it will require a more concerted effort.  Vincent Bevins (If We Burn) notes that over the past few decades, social movements have not had the lasting effect that previous ones seemed to have.  Governments may be willing to tolerate demonstrations but not real change.  So change must be more subtle – maybe a change in direction or a change of the tools we use.  

Finding, Filtering, and Moving UI (FFMUI) will be a key to both unlocking the problem and for treatment of the situation.  It will require some creative thinking and use of other types of power besides barrel-of-a-gun or the power of money.  Other powers might include Division of Labor, Competition, and Targeted Feedback to name a few.  A Dynamic Democracy would incorporate many of these other powers, some of them being the power of the groups of people who are chosen in a random fashion with their own panel of judges.

The Nation-State as a mental construct has power because people act together and decide on rules and boundaries.  But Nation-States can evolve, however, by putting mild counter stress on the system in the right places.  We cannot wait for the unfocused energy of the crowd.  Rather, we can structure the growth in the proper direction, like bracing a growing tree to grow upright.  We can also push others to make some decision, even if that decision is a  small one.  Sports-like friendly competition to find and filter UI can also be useful.  

A social hierarchy has many layers, each layer using and sometimes abusing the layer below.  This is how bad feelings between various groups get started.  What are people asked to do by their leaders?  Some religions require 5 prayers each day.  Many find it to be a source of strength.  We cannot wait for extreme emotion to motivate crowds.  We need to go into neighborhood communities and challenge individuals and small groups.  

Standing at the starting line with a thousand runners ready to begin a race, the energy is palpable.  Crowds can certainly feel and act differently than the interaction within small groups and individuals.  We can still use competition in new ways, even with small groups. It may work start from outside the group.  After all, we are social animals.  We can push UI to other individuals and groups to push them uphill.  This is the reverse of Stories in the Old Testament where other tribes were pushed downhill and vanquished.  We can change the story.  Are those guys the enemy or are they our younger siblings?  It makes a difference.

Here in parts of the US we are starting a local process called Discovery Games (DG) with a dozen people who push other people to discover new ideas and information.  We challenge players to take the game and run with it on their own.  

Un-Corrupting the CIA

Posted on by josuter

Our Secret                                                                                                       by josuter

Corruption in the CIA is closely linked to keeping secrets, those things that only you and a few others know.  It’s real power.  Ask any 6-year old.  Corruption, as defined by an engineer, is about elements on a circuit board that are simply not working as they should, so we say they have become corrupt and need to be replaced.  It’s not about being good or bad.  We all have good and bad in varying ratios.  

Graham Fuller, ex-CIA analyst, says “I don’t know how you ‘un-corrupt’, if you will, an organization like CIA   . . . and I suspect ‘un-corrupting’ really means establishing an organization in which there is an openness and willingness to speak truth to power and not be afraid and twist it.”   This may be wishful thinking.  After all, finding hidden information is the nature of the work of the CIA. 

Take a group of top-level business people meeting in a secluded room.   The first thing they do is fix prices.  The walls that surround these people offer privacy and secrecy.  Common sense would suggest more transparency, but if secrets are exposed a scapegoat will be offered for public humiliation, leaving the system unchanged.  This happens at all levels and areas of society.   It’s a part of how social hierarchies are made and maintained.  We may not need transparency per se, but a way to separate useful information from the person who has that information.  

Finding good questions will help.  Finding good people can help too, but good feedback is really the key and can make up for weak questions and imperfect people.  Good feedback depends greatly on the immediate environment.  Who is in the room with you?  What are their expectations, spoken or unspoken?  What is their position and power over you?  How confident can you be of their advice or of other options?  Is one surrounded by people who celebrate a New Gaza Resort – all the while looking at others around them, carefully watching for the reaction in others too?  Or is one surrounded by Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS), generally a saner group of people.   

Recognizing the impossibility of getting the whole truth, one can get a good approximation with a structured approach.  A “First Person Reviewer”, i.e. the boss who wants better information, can assign a question to 2 or 3 small teams with several people on each team, hand-picked by the boss of course.  The questions should be hand delivered and include the names of others on each team.    “I want a one-page report back tomorrow with all your signatures.”  This may remove some of the boss’s ability to reward or punish but he or she will get better information.  

Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle states that one cannot know both the exact position and the momentum of any particle.  It’s either one or the other.  So a boss can either retain his or her ability to reward and punish individuals – or get better information – but not both.   The goal is to trap the truth, not the person.  Still, it may be important to get rid of compulsive liars, something that can be done using a similar approach.  

Herb Simon was known for his study of decision making and the theory of Bounded Rationality.  Many people say that this means you simply get someone with a lot of experience who will just make their best guess.  But what does the word “bounded” mean?  It is more than simply trimming off the less probable options.  Rather, it may reflect the importance of the group structure and process.  

A New Story to Avoid Nuclear War

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A New Story to Avoid Nuclear War

I was a young boy when my father told me something that I realized was not true.  I loved and admired my father, but why would he do that?  Maybe he believed it.  Maybe that’s what his father told him.  Both grew up in different times and different environments.  For that I could forgive him. 

When the environment changes, the story must change.  A powerful story must touch reality at some point yet leave room for imagination.  Culture is a collection of stories that work and have value in a particular environment.

Metaphors reflect our vision and understanding of the world.  We think in metaphors and use them to influence other people too.   Memes are metaphors with feet.  Allistair Crook says the fever of misleading memes should be broken.  But how do we do that?   It takes a long time for a bad meme to burn out.  Because of this lag it may be necessary to take counter measures simultaneously at multiple levels.   

The Story of The Emperor’s New Clothes is just as true today as it was when written nearly 200 years ago. The Big Lie in the tale was not that the Emperor had no clothes.  That fact was evident.  The Big Lie was that people who could not see the new clothes were stupid.  This made people shut up.  When political leaders are afraid to look weak, it increases the resistance to finding Useful Information, both for themselves and others. In the same way, censorship destroys language.  People hide what they mean and some others may create a new language.   

Israel needs a New Story.  Their Old Story worked in the past but not today in this new and different environment.  Can they forgive their fathers, or will they continue to be prisoners of an Old Story?  

Environment

By themselves supersonic missiles (SSM) can be viewed as a dangerous and destructive weapon.  But this is a nuclear weapon environment.  If only the Big Players have SSM’s they will simply be another weapon on the shelf and potentially destabilizing.  As a part of a larger system with feedback loops, SSM’s can be distributed to both nuclear and non-nuclear countries where they could be a stabilizing force, allowing us to back away from the Nuclear War precipice. 

Even several SSM’s fired by mistake or by malice will not destroy the whole world.  There will be time to investigate.  On the other hand, detonation of a single nuclear weapon will likely lead to thousands of them being launched.  Henry Kissinger noted that after the first nuclear weapon is launched everything beyond that point becomes unpredictable.  So it is highly likely that all the missiles will be launched.  Consideration of the atomic bombs dropped on Japan during WWII are not helpful in thinking through this problem since the United States was the only one who had them at that time.  This situation is more like the old-fashioned gun fight with two gun-slingers – except we are using nuclear guns and everybody dies, including the crowd.  Is this how we will treat God’s Creation, this great and miraculous Creation? 

Jonathan Schell’s book “The Gift of Time” was a reflection on the luck – or maybe providence – that kept us from using nuclear weapons in the decades since WWII.  But time can be so short and even disappear when leaders have only minutes to make a decision that will affect the fate of the world.  “He who hesitates loses”.  We must not put anyone in that position.  Yet some leaders believe that a nuclear war can be won.  That is the Story they tell each other – but it is misleading.  

Motivation of those who are Gender-Queer might be, in part, a statement that the alpha male model does not work anymore.  The alpha male model has brought us this far but continuing along the same path will lead to destruction of everything.  The risks go up even further when more nations want nuclear weapons.  Yet Queer people want to be protected too, so we and they must find some other type of defense.  

Nuclear weapons are not a “great equalizer” as some have said, but rather a “great destroyer”.  They warp reality and make individuals blind.  SSM’s could be a key stabilizer  and function to keep the larger system stable, but only if distributed among all nations and using interlocking regional groups.   

Types of Power

A Story can definitely have power but it must match the environment.  It should be obvious that we need other types of power.  It may be up to citizens to find and use those powers since current leaders are too busy and may have no motive to do so.  

Education is power.  30 years ago, Jackie Jackson, a public school teacher speaking as a guest on The Newshour, clearly stated that the value of education is survival of the group, not just getting a job.  We argue over school funding while the Russians educate their students in STEM subjects, allowing Russia to build SSM’s while the US  lags behind. 

Government, business, and mainstream media use BOG (Barrel-Of-a-Gun), money, and information as tools of power.  This aligns with the task of government to set boundaries, business to produce goods and services, and media to gather and filter information.  

These types of power might be called Type I or material powers since a person who possesses them has power.  Type II and III powers are process-structure types of power and include Division of Labor (DoL), Competition, PIE Games, Feedback (FB), Bottlenecks (BN), Focusing on a Few (FoF), or changing Target Learners (TL). 

Other types of power include: Discovery of better Questions, Discovery of Points of Resistance, Creation of New Stories, and various Information Games.  These are all types of power if they help to get things done. Organization itself might be considered a power, though it may be more a manifestation of power since many organizations will collapse when the power is shut off.  

What is the purpose of the Nation-State?   

The Treaty of Westphalia that ended the 30 Year’s War in 1648 was the result of exhausted warriors agreeing on some boundaries and promising to keep their hands off others’ property.  Since that time the Nation-State has evolved to become the primary protector of its citizens, plus creating a stable and predictable environment.  So the Nation-State can evolve, but can it change itself?   How?  And in what direction?  Feedback will be key.  

Can democracy handle these increasingly complex issues?  How do we Start?  Thinking about HOW we talk can be power.   

Small seed groups (2 or 3 people) can start something with one of these powers.  A discussion or debate does not have to save the world.  It only has to take one step or discover one idea.  The next step is a “process” discussion like “How do we get this idea into a larger group?”  Alternating Issue Debates with Process Debates will move us forward. 

We cannot simply point out mistakes or accuse someone of “hubris”.  There is hubris at every level, even among children who are unable to hear others from a lower station.  Maybe it’s boredom or not wanting to repeat things already learned.  Maybe it is a fear of looking bad or an effort to maintain the social hierarchy.   So we must help find a new path.  

Triple Play

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Triple Play 

by josuter

Social media and political podcasts have played an essential role in keeping the integrity of journalism alive.  It is essential for change.  In truth however, these podcasts are becoming a bit boring.  Mearsheimer seems too predictable, and sure, it’s fun to be a part of J-Nap’s club with his half-million followers, but what are he and his followers doing to end the forever wars?  It will take more than just getting angry or projecting ad hominem attacks.   

Leaders don’t care what citizens think.  We must make them care.  We must make them listen and change course.  The courts are too slow, and mainstream media is controlled by vested interests who hide the truth, only reporting what they find convenient.  This creates a glass ceiling for useful information.  We cannot reclaim democracy just at the ballot box.  It is time to move to the next level.   It is time for a Triple Play.

ONE-  Temple University  

The Question is “What is Anti-Semitism and what is Not?”  The goal here is to put decision-making back in the hands of Temple students.  Except for extreme cases, students should be able to judge what is anti-semitic and decide on a reasonable consequence.   We as individuals and Small Groups (SG) from all over the country can focus on Temple for a few weeks, pushing ideas and information to them.  This means up to and including public humiliation of those who abuse language or abuse their official position of power.  Don’t know anyone who attends Temple?  Maybe, but you probably know someone who knows someone else . . . we are all connected.    

TWO – 2,3,4th Tier Diplomats for Ukraine

The fact that our leaders are not talking with the Russians is frankly a sign of immaturity.  Citizens can playact diplomacy as an alternative channel for communications and publish their results.  We can cross borders with translators, using people of almost any age.  Just nominate someone and support them.  Create a Division of Labor for finding and filtering Ideas and Information.  Efficiency and integrity are top priorities.  This is not a social club.

THREE – Deconstruct Nuclear Weapons (NW)  

Nuclear weapons treaties are good but temporary.  In the long run treaties are not enough.   An increasing number of nations want Nuclear Weapons.  Therefore the chance of an accident goes up.  Decisions about whether or not to launch thousands of NW must be made within minutes.  A “launch” order will mean the end of human civilization.  Survivors – if any – will be in survival mode. Deconstruction of NW at this point in time is the better option.  NW can be replaced with Precision Kinetic Missiles (PKM) that are not nuclear, but they are precision and travel at supersonic speeds, from 5-10 times the speed of sound.  At the time of this writing there is no way to stop them.  i.e. There is no defense against PKM’s.  All countries, both Nuclear and Non-Nuclear should be part of an offensive PKM group of 3 or more nations.  PKMs can be triggered to work the same as a NW or set to trigger even faster.  A system of 3 or more PKM’s can be aimed at the capital city of a nearby nuclear nation, arriving sooner than a conventional missile.  This system is safer than any system of Nuclear Weapons.  A nation targeted by several PKM’s may need to find new leadership, but the country will survive.  This will remove reasons for the continued existence of NW.  

It is unlikely that Nuclear nations will institute this system by themselves.  Non-Nuclear nations, like responsible older siblings, must take the initiative to set up such a system.  

The leadership in the West has been wrong about many things during these forever wars, including estimating the strength and resources of both our allies and our opponents.  Inadequate information led to an incomplete mental models and poor understanding of the situation.  We will be unable to respond to changing environments – political, social, or natural environments – without better information filters.   

We must go beyond what our leaders can envision.  Humiliation should only be a last resort for people who cannot listen and learn.  We must look for more than someone to save us.  We need to develop communication channels and processes to find practical solutions.

Each of the items listed in this Triple Play will require some Person-to-Person (P2P) communication.  This can be difficult to get started.   For many reasons, P2P may be the site of greatest resistance to change.  It is the place of greatest fear, especially if one of the persons is holding a gun.  It is also the place of greatest love and greatest sacrifice. Democracy is won or lost at this level.  It is foundational.     

We must push others to make decisions.  Push them uphill.  The Temple students must not only be allowed to take control of the Sem-Anti-Sem issue but pushed to take responsibility for making judgements and considering consequences.  This is part of their education.  

We must find places and ways to increase our ability to ask good questions and search for Useful Information.  Play with the Question.  Try a hypothetical situation.  SGs may be the best place to start and try to figure out how to move useful information and ideas.  SGs can be started with few friends who strategize, then maybe pass flyers with Questions or Ideas around the neighborhood community (even anonymously to start).  i.e.  “How do you (we) know anything about issue X?”  Keep below radar until there is some momentum. 

Big issues will require some planning and Division of labor for Information Gathering (DIG). Yet each smaller part can be started by a small, local group.   We are not selling anything.  We are challenging others to play ball.  

Feedback to the Future

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Feedback in Nuclear Weapon Control Systems and Society

Precision Kinetic Missiles (PKMs) like the Oreshnik, some say, are a game changer.  Yet missiles are still being fired into Russia from Ukraine with NATO’s help.  The argument in this paper is that PKMs will not be a game changer unless they are part of a larger system with adequate feedback.  

We are now on the edge of a nuclear war, an apocalypse with no winner.  No nations will remain.  There will be no democracy.  If any people survive, they will be in survival mode.  The situation now is more dangerous than the Cuban Missile Crisis with talk of preemptive strikes by Rear Admiral Buchannan who himself does not realize that we cannot “win”.  He is not getting the information, the feedback that he needs to make better decisions.  But he is not alone.  More nations now believe they will be safer if they obtain nuclear weapons.  This may seem true if leaders see no other options or pathway to ensure their safety.  

Because of the ever-shortening time period to make a decision whether to launch a nuclear weapon (now 5-10 minutes), the first use of any nuclear weapon is likely to begin an all-out nuclear war and the end of humanity.  This risk is increased if there is no direct connection between the White House and the Kremlin.  

Complex systems cannot operate without good feedback to keep the system stable.  This feedback is often from sensors that may be quite small but that give important signals under specific conditions.  What we call international politics is a type of system that is quite complex, but it is still a system.  

Examples of feedback:  1.  The thermostat that helps to regulate the temperature of a room.  In most cases this can be adjusted by people in the room, though that may not be true in large conference rooms.  2.  Airplane landing gear must be in an up or down position.  This information on landing gear position is sent from the sensor directly to the decision maker – the pilot.  3. The human body has many systems that work together. Each system has sensors that detect changes and give feedback directly to keep that system stable.  The person’s brain may or may not be aware of any changes.  It is a marvel of engineering and worthy of study.   

Leaders in international politics are imagined to be in control.  We assume they have the necessary information to make good decisions.  Comparisons to a chess game are often used but one thing that Prime Minister Netanyahu has shown us is that leaders who think they are grand masters are actually part of the game and can be taken out.  

The power of PKMs is reflected in the words: “Precision” means it will hit the target exactly.  “Kinetic” refers to the fact that the missile is going so fast at supersonic speeds that it needs no payload to explode.  The kinetic energy is proportional to the square of the velocity and all of this energy will easily destroy the target.  Supersonic speeds also mean – as of this date – that there is no way of stopping or intercepting them.  

If one steps back and looks at the whole system, PKM’s make sense if they are under the control of small groups of nations and pointed to the head and critical infrastructure of the nearby larger nuclear states.   PKMs are thus only a game changer if part of a larger System feedback design.   Three countries, both nuclear and non-nuclear act as one sensor and must agree to fire their PKMs at the Headquarters of Nuclear Nations if anynuclear weapons are detonated.  Misfiring of a PKM by accident will not be nearly so destructive as a nuclear weapon, and the reasons for the misfire of the PKM can be found and corrected.  

PKMs can be given to or developed by groups of 3 non-nuclear, smaller countries to start this system of feedback, even if the larger nuclear countries decline.   Larger nuclear countries will join when they realize that this system is safer.  We can then begin to de-construct all nuclear weapons. 

If nuclear weapons are gone, the feared power shift from West to East will not be so large and imbalances can be addressed in other ways.  If 2025 is to be anything, it must be the year to construct feedback loops, especially for control of nuclear weapons.  This effort can start at any level, from Discussion and Discovery Groups, to the Congressional level. 

John Suter Communication Research

January 1, 2025

States of Syria

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The situation in Syria is portrayed as many radical Islamist groups who may start a civil war.  This is not unlike the 109 parties to the Treaty of Westphalia that ended the Thirty-Years War in 1648.  Those negotiations took place at two locations over 6 years.  The warlords and princes who comprised the parties did not trust each other at all and so a complex arrangement was absolutely necessary if the fighting was to cease.  

Today we have new tools of communication, such as the cell phone and other methods of communication.  It is not unthinkable – if we can find some intermediaries – to start to bring these Islamist groups into some kind of stable balance.  It may require division of Syria into “states” with each sect having their own piece of property or state.  The engagement of a few open-minded religious leaders can help mold a new story.  

In looking for a solution to the Gaza War, this could be a step to creating a better support system for all countries in the region.  

We Should Never Have Taught Them to Read

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We should never have taught them to read.  Turns out they are just as smart as anyone.  Blame the children of slave owners.  Why?  They were best friends with children of slaves.  What do best friends do?  They share things.  All kinds of things.  They show each other stuff they just discovered and even how it works.  Pretty exciting. Sometimes they will challenge their best friend, but always patiently, because they want their best friend to succeed.  

This goes on till sometime in their adolescence when they would look at each another in a different way, as if one of them were a stranger.  Spoken or unspoken, one of them would realize their friendship must be secondary, put on a lower level, behind some new role in their own family and community.  Sometimes they fight just to make the break quicker, less painful.  Yet that precious friendship, lost or dissolved, never goes away completely.  

They never were animals.  Animals don’t read or play musical instruments – though they do sing.  Animals don’t become artists, teachers, engineers, or business people.  Animals don’t invent Arabic numerals.  Yes, Arabic numerals, a tool used by everyone.  Any why this fear of Russians, people who have created a great culture with great music, literature, and ballet?  Have you ever heard a Rachmaninoff Concerto?  If Russians are evil, then we should not allow our children to listen to The Nutcracker Ballet, composed by a Russian named Tchaikovsky.  

Here we consider the power of language, the power of music, mathematics and design.  These are all part of a story that should give guidance, and must touch reality at some points along the way or it will fail.  Stories can be modified when circumstances demand.  When the politicians are paralyzed it may be up to religious leaders of integrity with or without military leaders to make such changes.  Citizen’s can and will do it on their own but it may take longer.  If the story and the social hierarchy rest only on the power of violence, then humans are destined to forever fight each other and never see what lies beyond.