June 2023                                               LEQ                                                                by jo suter           

Lex Fridman asked Elon Musk a Question (LEQ) about humans colonizing Mars: What type of government, economic system, and political system might work for a new human civilization on that planet?  Elon agreed that colonizing Mars would be an opportunity to re-think government.  This is an important question, not only for future colonies in space, but to ask what a retrofit might look like here on Earth. 

Elon’s first idea would be to have a direct vote rather than a representative government  to decrease the influence of lobbyists. Not a bad idea. In addition, rules and regulations should be allowed to run out and not automatically be renewed.  To start a new Martian economy, Elon suggested that a crypto currency might work – maybe Doge?   Let’s push the LEQ question a bit further. 

What are the possible types of Martian government?

Most space exploration up to this point has been a military-type command and control, even with civilians aboard.  It’s just easier to have a chain of command.  Of course most of us would want a long-term colony on Mars to be democratic or have some variation of democracy in which leaders are chosen by the people.  It is unlikely that laissez-faire or libertarian government would be allowed on Mars (at least to begin).  The environment is too harsh and everyone has work to do.  Beyond that, it is possible that some space colonies could have a non-democratic, dictatorial type of government.  That would include an oligarchy or monarchy, both of which are less democratic.

What is the role of government and is that role different on Mars?  To start with, governments must be concerned about the survival of the colony.  Decisions must be made and disagreements settled.  Many people look to government for a vision of the future.  Governing must be more than simply a division of spoils and resources however. “Total Recall” is an action movie with Arnold Schwarzenegger as the hero with amnesia who returns to Mars and saves it from the Bad Guys.  Though not explicit in this movie, it appears that Mars is run like a corporation, sometimes a free-for-all, but not a democracy.   

Will there be nation-states on Mars?  The origin of the nation-state was heavily influence by the 30 years war in Europe, ending in 1648 with the Treaty of Westphalia.  This was an agreement in which the royals agreed to keep their hands off each other’s property.  We still fight, but since that time the nation-state rather than a feudal lord has become the object of allegiance for most citizens within their respective borders. 

If a colony on Mars divides into nation-states and expend any amount of energy fighting each other, they won’t make it.  Other mechanisms of keeping the peace must be created. Cultural stories may hold some of the keys.  Individual and group accountability will help too, so there must also be Feedback Loops created to filter and move useful information.  Survival of the group or colony will depend on it.

There is no doubt that colonies on Mars will be isolated and for that reason Martians will have to make many of their own decisions.  As Elon pointed out, radio waves that travel at the speed of light will take at least 4 minutes to reach Mars at the very least.  Screen writers of the movie “The Martian” ignored this 4 minute delay for the sake of the story line, but in reality, a Mars colony must be mostly self-regulated and self-governed.

This brings up interesting questions.  Will there be police on Mars, and will they carry guns?  Movie writers may not be technical experts but they have at least thought about some of these issues.  In the movie Total Recall a stray bullet could do a lot of damage – “Don’t shoot!  The dome will shatter and kill us all!”

Economy

Currency is not simply worthless paper.  It is a ticket to participate in the local economy and social interactions.  It is a communication tool.  What “backs up” a currency?   It can be the power of the federal government via collateral, or contracts and the courts. 

In Total Recall the citizens used a currency called “units” instead of dollars.  They were expected to work and apparently this is how they were paid.  Whoever ran Mars also coerced labor from the citizens by withholding the amount of air they had to breathe.  In our more civilized world we use “sanctions”.  This may have some effect, but may also be too general to be really useful toward achieving the desired end goal. 

Here on Earth, business and capitalism work rather well as a method of organization.  There are buyers and sellers using some kind of currency.  Verifying the transaction can be the tricky part.  Elon recalled that while at PayPal, he learned that transactions involving money are mostly about information processing.  That implies the key importance of good information as a fundamental requirement of any transaction, especially any digital transaction.  Who sold what, to whom, and when? 

The financing of capitalism requires an ever-increasing growth as measured by GDP.  But colonies can grow in complexity and sustainability too, not simply growing physically bigger.  This type of growth takes energy and organization as well.  Can financial services be separated from Capitalism?  Should it be?  Financiers will finance tobacco companies if it will make money for them. 

Will there be multiple currencies on Mars?  Counterfeit currencies may be locked out if good record keeping is done.  A transaction would have to exchange something of value to create a new currency.  If I can start a tobacco farm on Mars and sell tobacco, an addictive substance, new currency or barter schemes will simply appear!  Voila!  This creates a market place but would it be in the long-term interests of the colony?  No.  True wealth starts by people getting out of bed each day to create goods and services that are also of value to the colony.

A distributed ledger known as blockchain may have been a useful discovery that spun off from the invention of crypto currency, but the use of electricity to create value for Bitcoin (BC) is a gross waste of energy.  Plus, solving a long math problem to obtain a BC is really of no value to anyone.  It simply slows down the rate of introduction of BC into the mainstream, much like the stoplights that control the rate of entry onto a busy highway.

Yet BC has woven itself into the social fabric and tied itself to the US Dollar (which is also used as a measure of the value of BC).  Weather or not BC retains its position is not yet clear, since any contracts written using BC may not stand up in court.

One can start a new currency simply with a transaction.  The first BC was reported to be payment for a pizza.  If each coin has an ID (for larger denominations), then that ID plus a separate Verification of Buyer & Seller are sent to a bank.  The Buyer and Seller can use any currency they want if the Bank will accept it. 

If each large Crypto coin has its own ID, then counterfeit is much more difficult. With each Buyer and Seller having been verified independently by a trusted Verifier, a Bank can move the money from the buyer account to the seller account.  This also means that any currency, including local currencies, that can keep track of each coin ID can be used as a currency.  It might be necessary to keep each crypto coin intact and only of one value:  e.g. If I invest a (fictitious) local “Buffalo” coin equal to $100 USD in a local company and my investment increases to $360 USD, I can withdraw my money from the local bank with 3 Buffalos (traceable) plus $60 USD or $60 of a local currency.  The bank can mix or match in agreement with account holder.  So multiple currencies may be of value on Mars.  This redundancy in currency may not be quite as efficient but adds a layer of reliability.

Can currency  be “backed up” by a group?  If there is a local currency, then individuals can have both their own account but also be part of a group account.  If the individual defaults, then the group is liable.  This encourages discussion.  Much better than fighting.  But local currencies will still be a weak spot for counterfeiters or crooks.  In order to minimize this a combination of large ID-Crypto (each crypto has its own ID) plus a local currency might be used for transactions, as in the $360 example above.  The crypto-ID coin alone could be used for transactions between colonies.  The local currency is part of the open-book accounting and can be exchanged at the local bank.  The open-book accounting will let each person in that colony know what they spent or received each day, without details of what was purchased.

A local currency will have a limited number of people in that group but it is more transparent. In a digital system there is no paper money that can be hidden and “disappear” from the accounting ledger.  Every bit of currency can be accounted for every day.   The risk of any digital currency being used for surveillance can be lessened with Small Groups and local currencies. 

What happens if an individual breaks trust with their group?  There are several types of communities already here on earth, such as the Amish, in which the individual rule-breaker is shunned.  That means that the other members will not speak or interact with the rule-breaker for a certain period of time, sometimes a very long time.  It can be quite powerful.  The Amish are a group of people who will not pick up a gun to kill another human.  This is fundamentally a different type of power than that used by our legal system which is backed up by the barrel of a gun.  Shunning is a social pain and very real, but it won’t work if there is no caring and concern for other people.  Like the Amish, we have choices to make.

Inflation is something that steals true value, especially from those who are unable to automatically increase their income.   Inflation of 2% was thought to be optimal, but where did that number come from?  Maybe from the lag time of Goods and Services behind the injection of money into the economy?  Or was it a strategy to outbid someone else when information took weeks to arrive.  Neither of these apply when information is almost instantaneous.   Maybe a 2% increase in price is the level at which the buyer does not take time to look for better deals.

In his book “Small Is Beautiful”, E.F. Schumacher points out that capitalist systems require an ever-expanding GDP, but this cannot last forever.  There has to be some reset mechanism.  For finance, the reset turns out to be the boom and bust cycle of the market or the money supply, or both.  Once reset however, GDP-growth can continue, sometimes at a frenetic pace.  Some economists wonder if there are better measures, but until now it has been difficult to separate GDP from basic Capitalism. 

A declining population can be a drag on economic growth if one only measures GDP, the gross estimate of economic activity.  Population growth is not so important if the community works on becoming resilient and sustainable.   Yet how does one measure resilience and sustainability?  It will require gathering and filtering of information and ideas.  This includes the ability to formulate or discover useful questions, even hypothetical questions to probe the possibilities and estimate true value. 

Political Systems, Social Hierarchies, Small Groups and Feedback Loops

Political power is closely related to some official position or military rank but also related to positions in a social hierarchy (SHA).  Much of this is our own mental model.  The British may kneel to the King of England, but others may not.  In reality there are many complex layers to a social hierarchy, each of which is willing to use and abuse the level below.

Social hierarchy has its downside too, the most serious being the difficulty of moving useful information upward due to a natural resistance within the hierarchy.  Useful information from the bottom struggles to make itself heard without a specific, pre-determined pathway.  We need to develop new connections and new ways to Get Things Done (GTD) or Slow Momentum (SLOMO) of things already in motion.

Much of the work in doing this requires finding, filtering, and moving useful information.  We have the ability to do this with tools of modern communication.  That will not be enough, however.  Technology must be combined with small group structures to provide useful feedback to people in positions of power or to points of decision.  The term “feedback” here means specific information from a specific place directed to a specific decision maker or point of decision.  Biologists study feedback in plants and animals, both individual and groups.  Engineers build systems with Feedback Loops.   Courts, Contracts, and Conflicts all depend on Useful Information for adequate resolution and all can benefit from well-designed feedback. 

One social structure with practical applications could be a TenTwo group in which ten breadwinners support two of their own group with rent, food, and insurance for some period of time as decided by the whole group.  Those two people can then do any kind of work that they and the group decide upon.  They are entirely self-contained, making all their own decisions.  This can be started with incentives from the outside since many of them will not automatically organize.  The TenTwo group then has more power for self-direction than ten individuals acting alone but must use a decision-making process that is very efficient.

Small Group (SG) of all types can be more effective because of the FB within the group, giving time to think and talk.  Privacy of discussion within the group gives the individual deniability.  No matter the group’s decision, the individual does not have to go out on a limb and does not have to agree with their group’s public position.  This privacy of group discussion is an essential part of finding ideas that would otherwise not surface.

Human Martians will need to deal with the same common human emotions:  jealousy, pride, anger, love, sacrifice.  If we survive any length of time on Mars, these emotions will also rise to the surface.  Sub-dominant males or females, insolent teenagers and people out of power will try to prove their superiority over others.  Fights will break out.  Unless we can find ways to stop at this level, it will be the person with the biggest weapon that wins. Then we will again be on the same road to destruction.   So it is important to think about how to find and move useful information.

Feedback and Useful Information. 

It will take more than just frequent voting or higher voter turnout to change anything.  On the other hand, we don’t need a revolution or change of leadership if we can use tools of communication and feedback with small group structures.  Small groups that are truly random will give an answer that begins to approximate the same answer as a larger group.  Randomly selected groups of 10 can approximate the results of a group of 100.  The results do not need to be perfect if there are feedback mechanisms to make adjustments on a regular basis.  This was an argument of pioneers in the field of Cybernetics Science (The Science of Feedback) such as Norbert Wiener (“The Human Use of Human Beings”) who described the ability of a ship’s captain to guide a ship in the right direction despite changing winds and ocean currents.  The captain could rely on feedback, both from instruments and from trusted sailors. 

A dynamic process with feedback can be much more helpful to find problems that develop.  That statistical fact gives us a division of labor and a division of information gathering which makes it a useful tool or sensor in a feedback loop, bringing that information to a decision maker and point of decision.  Any dictator who loses feedback will see the downfall of his regime.  Creating of a Ministry of Truth is a sign that leaders are losing control of the story.  Random Small Groups can be used to challenge any story no matter what the source might be, if they can first ask questions, then think, talk and challenge each other.  They can challenge leaders or other groups, or just do something and then evaluate results with a similar process. 

Feedback loops can be designed from either end, from top or bottom, and can jump layers of an organization, though sometimes that means taking a risk.  John Houbolt, a NASA engineer who saved the Apollo program by pushing the Lunar Orbit Rendezvous design, was one person who risked his career by going outside the chain of command to write a letter to the head of NASA.

In a Mars colony use of Small Groups and Feedback Loops means that one group can also give feedback to any other group, not simply to their own.   Feedback does not have to be perfect.  The results should be testable by other randomly selected Small Groups that are given the discussion question, some privacy and time limits.  It is not a social club.  They must work quickly and efficiently, so an incentive might be used to get the process started.

Small Group Types

Small Groups of 3 to 10 people can be either random, self-selecting, or assigned.

-Randomly Selected Small Group members are picked by birthdate or other

   randomization process.  The purpose of R-SG is to gather and filter useful information. 

– Self-Selecting SG’s are the second type and are best exemplified with the TenTwo variety, 

   the purpose of which is to gain some privacy and independence of decision making with a

   support group that will support each other financially if needed. 

– The third type, A-SG, Assigns members and is designed for members to make the extra effort to look out for one another.  If one member makes a series of bad decisions and must return to Earth, then all those in his or her small group will return to Earth.  The need for this type of social structure can be seen in the mounting evidence of lone individuals responsible for mass killings.  Isolated physically and socially from those around them, their thinking patterns also become isolated and destructive.  Like the family structure, A-SG’s that encourage people to watch out for each other can help to set the base for a stable society.  Judicial courts could use this idea to explore group accountability. 

This is all about Finding, Filtering, and Moving Useful Information (FFMUI), something that Artificial Intelligence should do well.  Can AI-robots help us humans formulate better questions?  Bad decisions in history by leaders were often based on incomplete information.  The decision of Germany to enter WWI was based on faulty information leading to the underestimation of the strength of the Allies, the US in particular.  A well-functioning AI would not be able to tell the future, but possibly bring more relevant information to the decision.

Will there be media outlets on Mars and what is their role?  Sometimes the media can be trusted, sometimes not.  It may depend on who owns the media outlet but also depends on the filters used by readers.  Is the information I am hearing real or misleading?  Or noise?  Junk mail is getting smarter.  We must do more than “just say no” to misinformation, or drag our feet in an attempt to not think of unpleasant things.  An active search and dynamic filtering can be statistically powerful and meaningful. 

Do we need an enemy for motivation?  Fear is a great motivator, but it often lacks direction, like trying to push on a string.  However searching for useful information gives a goal, task, or a purpose every day and can be of great help.  AI should make Gathering Useful Information (GUI) easier if everyone is on the same side.  If there are two opposing teams, however, each using AI, then any information can easily become misinformation and difficult to analyze.  Even if simply played as a competitive game, Small Groups can help with this.  Those who are able to separate useful information from misinformation and noise will have more power.

Meaning, Purpose, and Morality – Do Robots Care?  

By the time we colonize Mars there will be further advances in Artificial Intelligence.  AI can be distributed over many computers, but here we refer to AI and Robots as the same,  simply to give AI more personality.  When we colonize Mars the ratio of Robots to Humans might be 1:1 or higher, depending on development of robots and what their task might be.  Will robots be programmed to serve or survive?  Can robots commit a crime?  Star Wars robots were owned by humans.  Not a bad idea either.  Maybe the owners should be responsible for bad bot behavior.

The larger question is “can robots be built to be moral, courageous, or altruistic?”  When C3PO was injured he said, “You go on, Master Luke”.  These robots definitely seemed to be on the side of the good guys.  

On a philosophical and psychological dimension, what is the source of the energy or force or impetus that is needed to move forward on any project or endeavor?  Does the leader have a vision and can the leader see further ahead?  Is it fear that drives the forward motion or does the motivation come from somewhere else?  Do we as individuals already see as far as we possibly can?  Will group dynamics extend our abilities?

Survival may depend on changing the cultural story, but there is great momentum in the story.  Movies like Star Wars deal with questions of human nature because that it what is interesting to the audience.  Bad Guys are essential to the script to create tension and to keep the attention of the audience.  So we must learn to use competition and apply it to many specific challenges – but without the bad guys.

Decision Making as Freedom

Too often people think and speak as if they are standing in front of some authority figure such as a parents or a judge (when they are really not) trying to play a leadership role.  This strategy may elicit useful information from the parties in conflict but not reliably.  Yet, one can sometimes find what is in a person’s heart by pushing that person to make a decision. 

A Hindu man came to Gandhi confessing that saying that he had killed a Muslim boy and therefore was destined for hell.  Gandhi told the man to find a homeless Muslim boy and raise him as a Muslim.  Decision.  We don’t know if that man did as Gandhi recommended or not, but freedom from the burden of guilt can be gained in part from making the right decision. 

Lawrence of Arabia was confronted by a group of Arabs with whom he was working.  They brought to him one of his friends who had allegedly committed murder.  Lawrence was expected to execute the friend in order to prevent a larger Arab uprising.  The pressure was immense, but in reality, Lawrence was in a position to ask something of the mob before he carried out the execution.  He could test their hearts and maybe show them other pathways instead of simply an eye-for-an-eye. If one pushes others to make a decision, either they can either hang onto the old story or try a new path.  It may require some courage, good information and ideas they can use to imagine alternate pathways.  One colony can push another colony to do the same.   This decreases the pressure on the second colony to raid the first colony for resources.  

The current situation of Taiwan being a target of takeover by China is an opportunity for the Taiwanese to say to China that they, the Taiwanese, may look favorably on reunification with China some time in the future if the shackles on Hong Kong are loosened and people are free to travel to Hong Kong to see for themselves.  This is a decision that can be made by China.  The right decision might avert war.  The question that prompts such a decision may not come from an official government body but from some element of civil society.  We can push others.  Challenge them to make a decision. Why?  There can be freedom in the making of decisions, even if those decisions are not popular at the moment and even if the question comes from unexpected sources.

Small Groups plus Feedback Loops are Key (SG+FBL)  

TenTwo groups are a buffer for job insecurity but can also be used to give feedback to other groups from the outside on many issues.  Like capitalism, we need competition to move forward, not simply altruism.   A nimble Mars colony should have an object or goal to push on in order to create a gradient.  It engages people who are otherwise not paying attention.  That is the basketball hoop, the baseball diamond, the tennis court and net.  These are all structures without which the game means nothing.  Pushing others up the hill may seem contrived, but it is temporary and not done out of altruism but rather to help entire colony survive.  This is in contradistinction to old stories in which the enemy is always vanquished.  Pushing others uphill may also be the best way to get around the natural resistance of a social hierarchy structure without stressing too many people out.  Rather it is a more gradual, steady climbing of the learning curve. 

Each of our own personal views of the world is pretty small, certainly much smaller than the institutions we build.   We closely watch other people around us and in fact learn a lot from them.  This social hierarchy can be very supportive but also very constraining.  At some point the pressure to conform mounts and then it becomes easier to push people down, blame the victim rather than stand up to those above or beside us in the hierarchy. 

Can democracy handle the changes needed?  We have the technology.   We need to think more about social structures that could be used to find and filter information.  It’s not automatic.  My information filter is different than yours, but we can create group information filters that are better yet.  A good place to start using Small Groups might be looking for waste in government, something that could be tried as a project in private enterprise.  The government could build better Feedback Loops if they want, but will they?  Leaders in power and their advisors may not be interested in change, so much of the change may have to start at lower levels.  Then leaders will follow. 

In one of the Smithsonian buildings in Washington DC crouches a bronze statue of a pre-historic figure.  It is not a large statue but striking in its pose.  Although it did not project power, it appeared with teeth bared as if it was getting ready to fight.  It may have been naked or covered with some rags, yet I don’t recall if it was male or female.  Life was a real and constant struggle.   

Early humans had to survive alone.   Some time later one of them picked up a club and that person became more powerful.  He was the guy to contend with.  Some time later we learned to work together and probably hunted in packs like wolves.  This was real power.  Small groups grew into larger groups and social hierarchies emerged to help create a division of labor.  We never gave up the club as a weapon.  It became a tool that morphed into knives, guns, and more.  

Max Weber, a German sociologist, philosopher and political economist, noted that what we call the nation-state is that entity which has a legitimate monopoly on the use of coercive force within a certain boundary – here referred to as a monopoly on the Coercive Force of Arms (CFA).   The nation-state is not a living being, although we refer to it in the feminine as the “motherland”.   A nation exists because there is agreement among various groups and mostly between leaders of those groups. 

Whether or not a coercive force really exists, there is something that feels like a force field that emanates from this CFA monopoly somewhere near the top of the social hierarchy and it helps to define the social hierarchy.  This force can limit our thinking and actions.  It can prevent many people from saying and doing what they might otherwise.   The force field is a part of the system and does not change when people at the top are overthrown because it seems to provide stability in the life of most people who live there.  

Activists may work against this force field because they want that same power.  They may devote their whole lives to a cause, but they themselves can get caught up in the force field established by a CFA.   Fighting the good fight engages people but opportunities are missed when they cannot hear ideas from the outside.  We still make them heroes.

Regan Penaluna’s recent book “How to Think Like a Woman” started these wheels turning and thinking.  Along her own journey as a philosopher, she weaves the stories of four notable women philosophers who pushed forward in an area that was, and still is mostly a man’s world of ideas.  One must ask, does philosophy try to figure out how the world works – or how it should work?  Or both?  Most early scientists were philosopher-scientists, spending much of their time asking questions about how everything works and what exactly constitutes matter or “stuff”.  

Marcus Aurelius was called “Philosopher-King” by Plato, possibly because he succeeded at a time during which he also sustained many political, military, and personal losses.  Through a series of questions and new stories (“Meditations”)

he began to change the way he thought about his challenges and about life itself.  This begs the question then “How does a Philosopher-Queen think?  What are her sources of strength and power?”

Powers

The power of The Story is great.  The first hearing of a Story has the most influence on the listener, just as the first hearing of music feels “the way it should sound.”    Social hierarchies established by CFA affect the Story in powerful but subtle ways.  There is resistance to change in the Story, especially by those near the top who surround the leader, and all of these people are very good storytellers themselves.   

Political leaders certainly have CFA power.  Do they have other powers as well, and do they know how to use them wisely?   A broader definition of power might include “Getting Things Done” or “Slowing Things that already have Momentum.” 

Does the story we tell us where we need to go?  What will tomorrow look like? 

Social, economic, and natural environments have all shifted, and so have their stories.  Some stories are not allowed, especially those that are difficult to verify.  Some stories reveal a weakness or loss of direction by current leaders who may have difficulty keeping up with the changes.  Julian Assange stories are not allowed. 

Other kinds of power must be considered and may be used by PQ’s.   These include the power of Communication, Organization, and Economic power (COE).  These are the Queen’s powers.  We will not get rid of CFA-type power, but COE powers can be nearly as effective, or even more so for people who knows how to use them. 

Formal education is important but so is self-education, plus the care and tending of the spirit which can make the critical difference for some people.   Math and science have predictive power.  Women must give permission to others to talk about technical stuff like heat and energy.

Beware of piggyback power that gains it’s muscle by riding on other power structures, like Bitcoin riding piggyback on the US Dollar.  Without accountability this can continue indefinitely, but like a paper tiger, its power can vaporize.

Power in the story only works if it touches reality at some point.  Some fiction can do that with its description of human nature.  Metaphors can hold a lot of power if the mental model or picture is close to reality.  Even comedy can have power although a lot of contemporary comedy is simply a jibe at someone else rather than revealing a new and funny way of looking at things.  

Secrets hold power, especially at the highest level.  Social clubs and priesthoods of academia hold secrets and prescribed ways of thinking.  Economists who predicted the 2008 recession were shut out of new positions at the most elite institutions.  This leaves one to wonder if current economic conditions suffer due to lack of input of new ideas.  Even leaders in academia will not give up CFA power and may unknowingly isolate themselves from information needed to make corrections. 

So another role of the philosopher is to find new pathways.  Forced to make a choice, the philosopher presents a third way.  They work to develop alternate methods of moving useful information.  This helps to create accountability and feedback.  When a philosopher comes upon some truth or reasonable explanation they try to paint a picture in the other person’s mind by using the right words and concepts.

The Brits are great at creating stories about knights in shining armor coming to save their queen.  In 1917 King George V had an epiphany (or maybe some good advice), so he created awards for the Order of the British Empire (OBE) that continues to extend to many people for their service or for some contribution to British society. 

The cynic would say that King George just made up some rewards to keep his subjects happy, but this award is a way of giving meaning to other lives.  The necessity for honor runs deep and something we should keep in mind going forward.  For Trump followers who do not have large networks of individual support, Trump gave meaning to their lives.  They could be a force again if someone gives their lives meaning or helps them find meaning in a new way, either in a constructive or destructive way.

Creation of a social hierarchy is essential to help decide the questions about who does what.  Large groups do not function well without a complex, multi-layered division of labor.  Well, bees do.  They have the queen bee, a few soldiers, and then everybody else.  But mostly they make honey for people like me to enjoy. . .

Librarians, teachers, and children of slave owners who taught other children and some adults how to read might be true revolutionaries incognito.  Teaching someone to read is the most powerful tool to bestow upon anyone since it speeds the rate of discovery of many things and enlarges one’s world.   This was the reason that teaching slaves to read was illegal in many places.

Philosophers are often not appreciated in their time.  They ask too many questions. Other visionaries exist among us who also don’t conform or who can see a better way.  Some of them are philosopher-engineers like John Houbolt, a NASA engineer who made the effort to ask the right questions and pushed for acceptance of the Lunar Orbit Module, almost single-handedly saving the space program from catastrophe. But at the beginning his ideas were not popular. 

Then there is the current International Relations expert John Mearsheimer who is not appreciated by others in high places because he asks questions that no one else will ask, leading to unpopular conclusions.   In an atmosphere of high tension when others are calling for “de-escalation”, he points out to the fact that de-escalation means going back to the status quo.  Could it be possible that one side does not want to go back to the status quo?  This forces us to be more creative in finding alternate pathways to present-day conflicts. 

Role of the Philosopher

What is old and what is perennial are determined by changes in the environment.   Some people can think young and respond.  Others seem unable to make decisions.

For discussions at a deeper level, women might point to their feelings.  Men might discuss the structural aspect of building a bridge, another kind of depth and an important one too if the bridge is to hold up under stress.  Both are seeking answers. The role of the philosopher here is to help formulate better questions and push these questions in front of those who need to know.    

In reality, the social hierarchy is a dense mass of layers that limit what we see and hear.   5^th graders know they are superior to 4^th graders who know that 3^rd graders are just dumb.  Each level takes care of, but also takes advantage of the layer below.

If women are not where they should be in the hierarchy, part of the reason may be that they don’t want to leave others behind, and so they step aside.  Working their way up to the C-suite might change their outlook – but maybe not. 

Leaders Push the World

Leaders are lonely. There is no one else in charge and they must hone their arguments for the layers of ambitious advisors that surround them.  Are women leaders prepared to be lonely?  What exactly do leaders do?  Must they simply “lead vigorously” as JFK once said?   A good leader must do at least the following:

1 – Turn.  Turn around to see if anyone is following.

2 – Task.   Give them a task – a specific task. 

3 – Tools.  Give them the tools to do it, then help set up some experiments.

Philosophers should do more experiments, like scientists or engineers, checking to see what is happening at several points along the way.  The true philosopher still wants to know how the world works.  Sometimes that requires a push.  Just a bit of a nudge.  A self-driving car pulls up beside you.   I think guys are more likely than girls to edge over a bit, just to see how the auto-car reacts.  I’ve not seen any research on this, but I would wager a small amount on it. 

. . . Push, Push, Push . . .

Push others to make decisions.  This may reveal hidden weakness but also hidden strength.  Bring people together in groups to work on a specific problem for which they must make a decision.  It may be better to create a mix of people than to use all from the same social group. 

. . . Push, Push, Push . . .

Push people together, not apart.  Push them to work together on some specific problem or to answer some specific question.  Ironically, this may require the use the kind of gentle competition we already use in sports such as baseball or soccer.

. . . Push, Push, Push . . . all levels of society.  Push people up the hill with higher expectations.  It may be our only way out. 

Bend the Story

Recent stories from North Korea ( “Without You There Is No Us” and “In Order To Live” ) indicates people in North Korea still have what we call human values and love for one another.  They need to create a better story, even if done inch-by-inch.  Start with the existing story:  “Kim Jong-un is the Supreme Leader of North Korea. He is an important person and a great leader.”  Then look for ways to bend the story in a positive direction.  Maybe find someone at the grass roots or middle management of North Korea who has ideas about how to improve their agriculture output or improve health care.  Then push useful information toward them, quickly.   

According to psychologist Michael Gurion, we should look at screens as story-making machines.  Many young and middle-aged people have become isolated with their only life being on a screen.  They seem to wait for the screen to give them a cue.  Is this power?   Or is this a problem?  If it is a problem, find a small group to refine the questions that might lead to a better outcome.  It may take a number of iterations to bend the story, but with the right process, this can be done.   

Tools and Tactics

Communication, Organization, and Economics.  These are the powers of the PQ’s, not physical strength or violence.  How does one put them into action? 

Tie two things together.  Bridge the gap.  Problem solve.  Do it with ad hoc groups.  One can always withdraw support or ask a different question.  That’s what philosophers do.  Show us another way.  Maybe go against the story, either with hypothetical or real situations.

Altruism is not for everybody.  Jews and Palestinians will not likely act kindly toward each other but finding the right process can prevent a lot of wasted time and resources on both sides. 

If one defines a hero as someone who thinks outside of the boxes, there are many heroes among us.  One is the piano teacher who says “use your own fingering” rather than those printed in the book.  He or she may be viewed by other teachers as heretical until they realize that the publisher simply hired someone to write the fingerings in the book, someone with a different size and shape of the hand. 

The problem can be a small problem.  A local story can be used, along with other leverage points, to start to bend the larger story.  The news media tend to break stories into separate pieces, each with its own headline, but in real life it all runs together.  Juxtapose two seemingly different problems:  gun violence and Haiti.    

Leader must pay attention to structures and how these structures interact with the flow of useful information.   Give small, mixed groups of people a discussion question, then a place and time to talk.  Plant a seed and water it.   Remember that among the followers there is a spectrum of attention spans, education, resources, and networks.

Maybe not push individuals in public.  Give time and space for them to ponder.  Privacy, alternating with more public discussions can be very helpful.  Give people a specific challenge, a specific question, and limited time.  Then expect some good answers.  The structure of small group discussions is part of the “how” that is needed to go forward.

The outcome cannot be pre-ordained. That would be politics or marketing.  Still, it is important to push people together to work on problems.  Act as if you have power.  Chose action over anger.  Leapfrog to positions of leadership, but don’t leave everyone behind, because you cannot.  They have power too and will leave if they see a better pathway. 

Philosophy for Big Questions

Both women and men philosophers must do some hard thinking on big issues of the day.  The abortion issue is not settled.  Then there is the issue of gun violence, the disappearance of prime age men from the workplace, artificial intelligence, the economy, and climate change.  Big Questions surround us.  Solutions may present themselves if the questions are placed properly to address real sticking points.

The call for justice seems to be everywhere, but does the call for justice lead to empowerment?  They are not the same.  Justice means that someone else makes the decision and then the issue often gets dropped.  Activists and others may be at the front, giving inspirational speeches, but without action or forward motion it feels like inspiration porn, like a sales force dictator to consumers: “Get in line!” 

Abortion is certainly an issue that needs input from a PQ as it is impossible to prove exactly when life begins.  There are some women who believe that life begins at conception.  For you and me, our lives and identity began at conception.   But that’s not the whole story, is it?  There are risks and benefits both ways.  Abortion laws can be rewritten to give primary choice to women, yet push individuals, families and communities together to make difficult decisions. 

Social scientist Nicholas Eberstadt has found that 4 out of 5 prime age males in this country are not included on the employment data.  Where are they?   Mostly at home surfing their screens or playing video games.  They have become non-persons, losing touch with the real world.  The implications are not good.  This becomes a women’s issue too.  As women aspire to positions of leadership they must be leaders of all people, not simply other women. 

Climate change is the key Big Question with implications for all the other big questions.  Rather than focus on what we can do at the national level or on what the individual can do, the philosopher might also focus on the middle, the town-size entity, starting with the question “how do we make this town sustainable on low carbon?”  People who live within a specific town would seem to be the natural players, but outsiders can help to push them up the hill with good ideas.  

A growing number of people are having second thoughts about AI (Artificial Intelligence) wondering whether it will bring with it a surveillance state and surveillance industry.  The fear is that artificial intelligence will be used to enforce more complex laws that deal with all facets of daily life.  Robo-Cat may already be out of the bag on this one however.   

Manifestations of a surveillance state can already be seen with the construction of Cop Cities near Atlanta and another one planned in New Jersey.  Training for mass uprisings is the reason for these large training areas.  Whether or not supporters of Cop Cities are driven by fear or profit, it can be just as easy to fall into the arms of their opponents.  Blame.  Anger.  Fear.  These are the easy tools to reach for in the activism handbag.  Are Cop Cities necessary because we have lost accountability to each other?  Maybe.  Maybe not. 

It does not have to be that way if we can find and formulate better questions.  Problems must be identified and decision loops made at a local level in a timely manner.   Seeds of change may have to start in the inner city by creating decision loops among the social layers.  Otherwise everything must go through the courts or some other branch of government.  

In the modern era the club has become “The Club”, a small group of people who get together to share ideas and help each other.  They assign roles and share stories.  Sometimes they divide the spoils.   Outside the issue of national defense, all governments are primarily about dividing the spoils.  Long term, however, we must be in tune with the environment that supports us.   We start with Questions, big and small, and for this we can use help from philosophers.  

josuter

Money Inflation and Fed Options (MIFO)                                               by josuter

Is the Fed “between rock and a hard place”, as we hear all the time?  Yes, it’s true.  Are they trapped?  Not necessarily.  But an escape plan must be created carefully. 

Is the integrity of the US Dollar at stake?  True again.  Congress will not stimulate the economy endlessly, so the ball is in the Fed’s court to expand or contract the money supply.  Of course, control of inflation is one of the primary goals. 

The Fed may be adding to (QE) or subtracting from (QT) the money supply in the wrong place however.  It may seem easier to give money or sell bonds to the big banks, but it is not very efficient, either in stimulating the real economy or controlling inflation – though the bankers themselves seem to make out well. 

We are back to the age-old question “What is money?”  A quick functional definition is whatever Gets you Out Of Bed to do your Job  (GOOB-J).  Without getting into too much monetary history, let’s imagine how money might have started.  Let’s imagine way back in some pre-historic time when there was a goat herdsman who wanted to trade a goat for a bushel of apples belonging to a farmer.  “Fine” said the farmer, but my apples will not be ready for a month.  “OK” said the herdsman.  “I’ll give you my goat today in exchange for a stick with these notches and I’ll bring back the stick in one month as an IOU.”  Neither of them knew what an IOU was, but they did not want to look ignorant.  It sounded reasonable.  

All went well until a selfish neighbor who witnessed the transaction decided to notch a stick of his own.  In fact he notched several sticks.  What would happen to such a neighbor in pre-historic tough times?  Nothing pretty.  Just as the crowd was getting ready to break the stick man, someone yelled “Wait, look what he has done!  Now we have more farmers growing apples and more herdsmen raising goats!”  So they spared his life and gave him the keys to the city.  

What then, is “Inflation”?  We probably have too many explanations of inflation too.  A better question might be “Who decides to raise the price of any item and add to inflation?”  No one in Washington as far as we know.  It’s the local barber, car salesman, baker, doctor, and insurance broker who make this decision.  It’s us!

Just to define our words carefully maybe we should give an example of inflation.   Someone in the neighborhood has a bicycle for sale.  Word gets around and several people show up to bid on the bike.  The seller is asking $100.  One person who really wants the bike reaches for his wallet.  Just then another person says “I just got my government benefit today and I can offer $120.”  Now the seller now has a choice.  He can go with the first buyer, and not cause inflation, or he can take the second offer.  Unless he has loyalty to the first buyer for some reason, or is himself a hawk on inflation, he is likely to take the higher offer, a decision which adds to inflation. 

The bike’s innate value has not changed but the number of dollars to buy it has gone up.  One might argue that the price of the bike is inflated and the dollar is deflated, but this is nit-picking with words.  Let’s just say that each dollar is now worth less.

If we could bring the farmer and herdsman from the past, they might suggest the neighborhood start a bike shop and make more bikes.  GOOB-J!  If the amount of newly printed money matches the number of bikes, more or less, then there is no inflation!  It is only when there are too many dollars for the number of bikes that inflation occurs. 

This has fundamental implications.  Enter the Computer.  Information Technology today can be used to make the economy work better if it creates feedback loops closer to where decisions are made. 

Instead of giving money to the big banks, the Fed could help set up a system that deposits money into many small individual accounts in some local bank.  The amount deposited depends on monthly inflation within each zip code area.   A real basket of goods and services (a local CPI) can be measured monthly to measure inflation within each zip code.  If the rate of inflation is kept low or zero, then the Fed deposits some amount of money in each account for everyone over 16 or 18 years old who live in that Zip Code area (call them “Zippers”).  If all the Zippers go out and spend money on the existing bikes or existing services, then inflation goes up and they will get no Fed deposit the next month.   If they get their heads together and start more bike shops, more goods or services, then inflation will remain low – and they will get Fed money next month.  (This is not a UBI which is a set amount is given to people with low income and no decisions are expected.) 

The face-to-face feedback loop of the local person with the businessman is what will help keep inflation under control.  If a business starts raising prices, then the local people can take their money elsewhere or spend it on something else.  But Zippers can also support local businesses by helping to find some strategy to keep down costs on the expense side of the business ledger.  This is the short feedback loop because it is face-to-face and not dependent on new laws.  In fact any system that can be simplified with the right feedback loops can run more efficiently without creating new laws.  This becomes more true with larger systems. 

Will the Fed do MIFO research with test cases?  Maybe not.  The Fed is the only level that can print money, but test cases can still be run at the state or local level (towns, think tanks, academic institutions) if they are willing to make the investment.

The Business To Community Challenge (BCC)  

Reflections on Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023  

  by john suter

For readers who take the time to read the extensive HCFOutlook 2023, the results are both surprising and sobering.  According to the authors, two of the biggest obstacles that prevent us from keeping below the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 Celsius are “Consumption Patterns and Corporate Responses.”   Many of these same problems were outlined in the white board video “New Climate Dice and the Media” in 2012.     Youtube dot com/watch?v=iH3Gx_qjPOc 

Outlook 23 brings up the fact that what we call “tipping points” are not really tipping points, but rather measurements that show the rate of change in our environment.  That is what the temperature measurements do.  But even though temperature is simply an indicator it may be misleading to minimize this when saying there will be minimal temperature change until 2050. 

It is not the actual temperature change that is so dangerous.  Many of us live in climates that have a yearly swing in temperature of 50 degrees Celsius or more (90 degrees Fahrenheit).  What’s the big deal about 1.5?   We humans can put on layers of clothing and turn on the heater when the temperature drops, or turn on the AC when it gets warm. Plants can’t do that.  So the big deal is that we will lose our food supply.  This is something that Lester Brown from the Earth Island Institute finally realized and wrote about in “Plan B, 4.0”

Ice melting is a linear process and it will not show us a tipping point until it is all gone.  Ice turning to water at the freezing point takes 334 Joules of energy for each gram of water as the crystals “unwind”.  This means a lot of energy from the sun that would normally go into increasing the air temperature is hidden from us because ice acts as a buffer.  When the ice is gone, then the energy from the sun will raise the air temperature much faster.  A tipping point means that humans have lost control.  Positive feedback loops may take over and not stop until all the forests have burned.  If grass roots people knew what lies ahead they would stop and pay attention, talk about it, and find solutions.  At this point we do not have these social skills.   

Resistance to social change is related to the fact that each of us belong to at least one group and within that group have some well-defined or vaguely-defined position.  These are positions that we could lose if we don’t act according to the spoken and unspoken norms.  Our ability to form social hierarchies and create divisions of labor is both a great strength but also a point of vulnerability.  Difficult jobs are foisted upon other people in the group or onto outsiders.  Group membership may also depend on how we act and what knowledge we bring, since this may help the group advance.  New information, even scientific information, cannot be pushed onto the group until there is some discussion.   

The authors of Outlook 23 undoubtedly believe it would be nice if political leaders read the report and “do something!”   Yet leaders face the same social obstacles that all of us do, the  problem related to finding and moving useful information.  We should be doing experiments in the social realm.  One does not have to be a social scientist to do an experiment.  We are all scientists in some way.  Do something, observe, change, repeat.  That is the scientific method. 

What we call “culture” arises from the interaction of a natural environment and a genetic pool, resulting in stories, songs, and customs that help the group survive.  Things that help the group survive are called “moral”.   Groups can make adjustments if the environment changes slowly, but if changes are too slow or invisible, such as the buildup of carbon in the atmosphere, then people don’t think about it.  We need to create the tools that make time and space for people to talk more, think, and talk again, mostly in private.  This is what will be needed to find and Move Useful Information (MUI).

The Overton Window describes policies that are acceptable to a general population but it may be for a population that is under no tension, no gradient to get their attention.  External threats provide one type of gradient that can get people’s attention, as do tax incentives.  Both of these engage people to create a story for their own future. 

FORCE FIELD

As sociologist Max Weber noted, the power of the state comes from a monopoly on the use of Coercive Force of Arms (CFA).  Just ask Hong Kong.  The United Nations cannot force people to take action in the same way that sovereign nations do.  Along with CFA comes monopoly on the money supply.  This is not all bad since it helps to standardize trade.  

But a monopoly on CFA and the money supply from the top creates a kind of force field that can make it difficult for Useful Information (UI) to work it’s way up the ladder.  So politicians are often ignorant of things they should know.  The irony is that politicians are the ones who maintain this structure that makes them ignorant.  

Maybe we don’t all have to cut back on carbon.  The top tier of society will not have to cut back or change their lifestyle if everyone else cuts back enough.  People at the top are unable to hear the call for a “No Fly Wednesday”, a sacred day each week during which there is a “flying fast” in order to take time to ponder, pray, and think about how else we can cut back on carbon.  

It can be helpful to define power more broadly to include “getting things done” (GTD) or “slowing things that already have momentum” (SloMo).  Both of these require the ability to find and filter information, even at the lowest level.  The ability of humans to form a social hierarchy depends on good communication.  Without good communication the hierarchy collapses.  

Go Right . . . Go Orthogonal to the Force Field

If we cannot push UI up the ladder to leaders, then one way out of this Force Field is to create an orthogonal (right angle) force by pushing UI laterally toward the next town, the next Neighborhood Community (NHC).  Push that NHC to be Sustainable on Low Carbon (SLC).  Why should anyone do this?  It’s not in my best interest.   No, right, but it can be made into a game.   Dropping a ball into a hole or thru a basket are just games, and temporary, but they engage so many people and lots of money.  We need to use competition to find answers to climate issues.  

Games creates gradients that cause people to sit up and pay attention.  Anyone can create a gradient for small groups, maybe a dozen people.  It is not being a salesman but creating a playing field and a challenge.  Judges too must be local and randomly chosen.  Followup Discussion Questions (DQ) come from whoever sponsors the game.  Some games will collapse.  Other games will start seeds for new ideas.  A mini-Overton might be described as that which will be acceptable to the local NHC since each has a different environment and different people. 

The Business To Community Challenge (BCC) – A New Hope

Consumption Patterns and Corporate Responses (CPCR) were identified as major points of resistance to social change.  Yet these two are certainly related and can work together to develop better stories, action, and real change.  Businesses must tell stories that have some connection to reality.  Wall Street is now raising billions to be invested in carbon capture, but this may be a wasted effort.  Anyone who studies thermodynamics knows that capturing a tiny carbon dioxide molecule and pushing it down a hole will consume as much energy as it saves.  This scheme will make money for Wall Street, just like carbon cap and trade, but Wall Street executives will line up for photo ops with their new EV, but mostly it’s a waste of resources.  

Making change from the top may be too fast and provide too many opportunities for graft.  

There are mixed signs that anyone at the top really want change.  They may not know how.   The smaller size of a NHC where people can meet fact-to-face may be optimal for finding and moving information on a number of issues, but BCC must be efficient and gain support.  A key point is the synergy that happens when the same number of individuals work or play games together to decrease carbon.  It’s more effective than the same number of individual efforts.  

Any business could take the lead and challenge a cross section of players and judges from any community.  If there is no interest, pick different players and increase the prize.  At some point there will be engagement.  Community members may not know what questions to ask, so finding a Discussion Question can itself be the goal of a game.  Business has energy. Communities have ideas.  Plug it in.  This is not just an invitation but a challenge.  Even tobacco companies and climate deniers can participate if the DQ is on some specific issue of finding waste or how to build a solar panel.  

One game might attempt to build a “Ten-Two Group” with ten breadwinners who are willing to support two among them with basic needs for some period of time.  These basic needs may be Maslow Plus (Food, Rent, Insurance).  Once started, this will be an entirely self-contained effort with the group of ten making all their own decisions for two in their group to do any kind of work that is acceptable to the other eight.  This gives the group more power and flexibility than ten separate individuals.  

Some climate groups should stay and work within the existing vertical force field to convince leaders on the how and why to make changes.  Other climate groups might do better by working at right angles and push communities to take charge of their own future but still remain engaged with other communities around them.  

This model can even be trans-national with town-to-town transactions and translators.  This route may be more effective than traditional attempts to push ideas up to our leaders, hoping they will talk to other leaders and then down to their citizens.  Traditional methods are useful but also beckon to opportunists who have been known to take big chunks of money.  

Experiment with Discussion Questions (DQ):

Where are we wasting energy and money, both at home and at a government level?  

How do we approach and push the next NHC “up the hill” toward SLC?

How do we create other types of gradients, besides prize money, that will engage people? 

Where do we start to create Ten-Two groups?   Could it be in the Next NHC.  

Citizens need the tools to talk and think, but also need a gradient to engage other people for short periods of time, over and over again – just like a game.  Businesses can get it started. 

Fat Politician Project (FPP)

It may not be nice to call someone fat, but if you listen to any campaign rhetoric, you realize that politicians can take a little teasing. 

What  

We have developed a game to push and pull on some public figure towards better health and nutrition. It requires real but friendly competition, and everybody learns.  

Why 

Many people would like to be healthier, but they don’t know how to get there.  Information Games (IG) can help us find a pathway but only if we are willing to push others a bit.  In many places the number of new diabetes (Type 2 – the one you get from eating too much) has risen by 15 %.  This is serious stuff, and it happens because we don’t talk about it.   

Who

Anyone can be a player or judge, even other politicians.   Target Learners are any public figure who should be in better shape, if only to be around for their children. 

How 

About 10 people are randomly divided into 3 teams with one or two people being the judge.  Each team picks their own target learner.  Don’t wait for volunteers.  Make several attempts to connect with the Target Learner before moving on to someone else.  Prizes only go to Players and Judges, but the Target Learner has a small army of people who can help formulate questions and find answers. 

A starter Discussion Question (DQ) can be general or very specific.  One series of games might start with a DQ  “How to pick a target learner?”  then “How to make a plan?” then “Do meditation or exercise help?”   But all of these questions can be rolled into one by simply challenging the teams to figure it out.  Judging and re-mixing of the teams can be done every few days, weeks, or months.  

Resources might include Eric Adam’s book “Healthy at Last” or find some other book or person who has ideas on how to get to the goal.  Prizes might come from private individuals or from many constituents who pay small amounts via their own designated person directly to the winning team.  This bypasses any middleman and frees the organizer to focus on the game and development of Discussion Questions.     

We can push and pull others uphill toward better health and nutrition.

Finding Useful Information                                          by John Suter

Thomas D. Howes on Hayek’s Discovery, Use, and Transmission of Knowledge

Words and Concepts:  Discovery, Competition, Capitalism, Structures and Processes, Feedback, Changing Environment

Friedrich Hayek understood that the study of economics goes beyond what can easily be seen and measured.  In a recent article of The Austrian Institute of Economics and Social Philosophy, Thomas Howes writes about Hayek and the use of competition to discover economic information and price as a signal for coordination of decision making.   (Austrian Institute Paper No.34 / 2020)   Howes expands this to include knowledge management and educational reform.  

Since the time of Hayek the use of competition has remained important, but other things have changed.  Over the last few decades there have been changes in structures and processes that both increase and decrease resistance to the movement of useful information.  These are both social structures and physical structures.  If a point of resistance can be identified as a bottleneck, then steps can be taken to correct it.  Often, however, the resistance is more subtle or dispersed.   There are a number of reasons for this.  Media ownership can slant stories in ways or omit pertinent facts in ways that elude even a careful reader.  No one would expect the Washington Post to be critical of the parent company Amazon, though an omission may not be directed by any one person.  It is more likely self-censorship.  In a similar manner, surveillance by government or big tech throws cold water on new ideas or probing questions.  Who would want to risk losing a job if the boss is listening to a conversation?

Other things have changed since Hayek’s time not so long ago.  Fiber Optics give traders a split second advantage by simply make the message move faster.  With computer trading this can make the difference between profit and loss.  When we buy items on Amazon, we make decisions about things we cannot immediately see nor can we meet the makers of an item and look them in the eye.  This adds another layer of complexity to decisions.  Buying insurance becomes even more obscure and so there develops a market for specialists in these areas.   

Simple discovery of information in many situations is not enough to figure out what is going on and polls are often of little help.  We must dig deeper to examine not only the sources, but also the structures and processes that we use to filter the good and useful information while avoiding the misinformation, disinformation, and spin.  Friendly competition among randomly picked groups can help, creating information filters that reach through existing social structures and across the social spectrum.  Just as the dimensions and rules of baseball are important to bring out the spirit and skills of the players, the right structure for filtering information will have some optimal design and can be created as a sport.  But first a look at power.

Power Types – 

Coercive Force of Arms (CFA), Economic Power, and the Power of Information

In any institution or large business, trying to move useful ideas and information up the ladder seems impossible unless management creates a process or pathway.  This reflects the flow of power from the top that is primarily based on the use or threat of coercive force of arms (CFA), what Max Weber noted as the defining parameter of the nation-state.  As long as everyone knows their role none of the signals have to be overt.

Capitalism gets much of its power by its ability to organize people to make goods and services.  Organization happens with the downward flow of money as salaries and wages, looking a lot like the Marionette doll snapping into shape when the strings are pulled.  Because both government and businesses use money, their social hierarchy is backed up by CFA.  Without CFA, buying debt would be a very risky thing to do.  This relationship of money to CFA power may also be the reason that crypto currency will never be a major currency since it too must rely on contracts, something that a government with an established currency may not want to uphold.

Expanding the definition of power can be helpful.  Power is “the ability to get things done, or the ability to slow momentum of things already in motion.”  That would include economic power and the power of finding, filtering, and moving useful information.  These other axes of power sometimes work with CFA power and sometimes point in their own direction.  They all interact to form a social hierarchy that can be influenced by the separate elements.  Big business certainly shows what economic power can do.   A kid with knowledge of how to ride a skateboard or who knows a path through the woods has information power that he or she may want to share – or not. 

Resistance to Finding Useful Information.  Is it Structural? 

There are many political examples of decisions made on bad information, the aluminum tubes leading to the War in Iraq being one recent example.  People at leadership levels only listen to others at their level rather than expand the search to lower levels, partly for reasons of time, but also to maintain lines of power.  Yet they do not realize their information and feedback are not optimal.  Robert McNamara, Secretary of Defense during the Vietnam War, wrote his book “In Retrospect” to explored the lessons learned from that misadventure.  He was looking for better ways to find and move useful information.  In a recent broadcast, Robert’s son Craig McNamara admitted that we have not learned those lessons. 

If we take a measure of the increasing income gap and mistrust of information from government officials, it might appear that our system of government is becoming senile.  Senility in humans means being unable to respond to changes in the immediate environment due to an impairment of the nervous system, that system which processes and moves information.  A current example is what the Fed calls “forward guidance” meant to give cues about the next Fed move on inflation so that business and financial institutions can plan ahead.  For those who cannot read these cues it feels like insider trading.  Yet Cambridge economist Mohamed El-Erian states that the Fed should give more forward guidance, not less.  Will this fix the problem?

In the book “Adapt”, Tim Harford quotes Hayek, saying that sometimes there is no substitute for information learned on the ground.  He was describing the Iraq war.  He argued that the power of new communication technology should allow decisions to be made at the appropriate lower levels.  Unfortunately, information technology also allows people in central command to try to control everything.  Again, one way to counter this trend is the ad hoc construction of feedback loops and sensors created by the end users, whether those sensors are technology tools or small groups of people.  Feedback loops can be built by the people who plan a policy or program, but feedback can also be provided after the fact by people on the outside.  Whether or not this hinders or helps depends on the quality and balance of the feedback.  

Capitalism, Courts, and Contracts also create a ratchet mechanism that acts like a one-way power device with leverage.   One can see this ratchet mechanism in both democratic and non-democratic countries in a quest for cheap labor.  We all use it to advantage because it creates organization and provides us with goods and services. 

Is Capitalism in Decline?  Models from Biology

The Club of Rome with its report on “The Limits of Growth” is generally talking about “growth” in an economic sense as measured by GDP or increase in the nominal number of jobs.  We are getting bigger and taller, right?   Yet, if one looks at a biological model, there are many ways for an organism to grow in order to increase its chance of survival, even though it may not appear to grow on the outside.  Cellular biology becomes quite complex and changes as the needs change.  The analogy in human dimensions point toward a growth of security and greater ability to respond to changes for the community as a whole, the “cell” of society.  This requires improvements in filtering information, not division into silos at the whim of leaders and media moguls who have their own agenda. 

Howe writes a story about the gap in communication between management and employees at Xerox, but this was not the only gap at that same company.  Even among employees there was a lack of communication as noted in John Seely Brown’s “The Social Life of Information”.  When Steve Jobs and friends paid a visit to Xerox they saw a Graphic User Interface (GUI) that was to become an industry standard, but because engineers and scientists were not talking to each other, Xerox was not able to develop it.  So Jobs and friends took the idea to use at Apple. 

Does the cigarette smoker have enough information and experience to make a good decision?  The price signal gives an indication of desire for cigarettes, and I can make money selling cigarettes, but it does take away real value from that person’s family, friends, and community who must then care for someone with chronic lung disease.  Tobacco use has dwindled to a minimum in the US, not because of a free market dynamic, but because of court cases which basically pushed smokers out of public places.  Most smokers came to appreciate that move, because most smokers were trying to quit.  But it took more than 30 years.  A better designed information structure could have accelerated that change.

Nature is Competition.  Don’t back off.

Much of nature is about competition.  Evolution picks those who survive in a specific environment.  This is usually genetic luck and not planned, except maybe in humans.

Democratic Capitalism is the most efficient way to divide the spoils of nature and natural resources.  Now we are reaching some limits.  Do we stay with our system or change course?   Cooperation is important but so is competition, though it should be friendly competition.  Politicians and Business leaders apparently love to compete.

But don’t back off from competition.  Move it to another level.  Use different players and goals.  In education move the competition to specific courses and styles of teaching.  Cooperate?  Yes.  Follow the leader?  Probably – except with information gathering and processing where people need to think for themselves. 

E = Experiment

For anyone looking for fruitful areas of research, focusing on Small Groups and Neighborhood Communities is a place to start.  Simply start by creating some teams, giving a challenge and a goal (incentive and general direction).  See if they can organize to get something done.  An incentive may help to start the process.

It is important to have both players and judges from a similar cross section of the group.  This is important because the boss does not have enough time to pick a winner and will have a bias of their own.   Herb Simon described a “Mangement Information System” from the 1980’s that would “gather up all the relevant information and dump it on the bosses desk – and the boss didn’t like it very much”.

Is the phrase “Systemic Discovery” an oxymoron?  One must be cautious that an outcome has not already been decided by someone at a higher level.   The true explorer is the person who is lost.  (Tim Cahill).   That person must really search, look, listen and think.  They must draw on all their senses.  We have plenty of challenges to pick from on issues that do not have a pre-determined answer.  

If the answer is known, then it is an exercise, not a problem.  (Paul Zeitz)

Theoretical v Experimental

Hayek noted that some knowledge will surface only if the situation needs it.  Otherwise it will remain inchoate or hidden.  Discovery of hidden knowledge may have to be done with experiments if we are to break our habits of looking and listening only to others in our circle.  Some habits are deep.  Some habits are rigid.  Finding the difference may require a push.  Doing an experiment to give this push may help find the necessary hidden knowledge that will move us to a better place or provide better feedback to leaders.

Real school choice is more than giving school vouchers.  It is not enough to offer school choice to parents who do not know what a good education should look like or what it should demand.  Feedback loops can be created for specific courses to find out how to teach better and how students can learn better.  Use competition for specific subject matter and include parents, students, and teachers on competitive teams to find faster, more durable ways of learning the material and the concepts covered.   Answers may or may not come from education experts who have their own ideas but have not checked or talked with top students.   (Cal Newport)

F is for Feedback

Feedback is essential for learning almost anything.   Well-designed feedback, both from within and from the outside, can help to make needed changes in the larger society, even without a revolution or regime change.  The feedback sensor can be simple.  It is often measuring one item and sending specific information from one person or place to another. 

Feedback loops should be carefully thought out and do not have to simply be along lines of CFA power.  Feedback can be given to other people at other levels of the social hierarchy above or below.  Bossware is computer software used to spy on employees and is a type of feedback but mostly poorly designed, often leading to counterproductive results and “quiet quitting”.  There are other markers of work and services produced without resorting to oppressive measures.

Decision Making as Freedom

Many decisions are small but some decisions can be meaningful, helping to set the course for a person or their larger group.  Surveillance states such as China may offer choices and even encourage choices as a matter of form, but are those choices significant for citizens in creating their own future?  And if the sources are not trusted, then it really is a dystopia.  The way out is to make more decisions. . . not fewer.   Create more competition for better information.  Push others to make decisions for themselves or for others.   Start anywhere.

Is the US declining?  Or going into Economic Hibernation? 

Until we can find alternate energy sources and better solutions to other difficult problems, economic hibernation may be the only way to avoid a depression.  This hibernation process may have to start at the community and small group level.  If we become totally dependent on the Fed to print more money, we are more likely to go into depression. 

People who work in corporations and small business can be moral beings and make moral decisions, but the business itself cannot be moral or immoral.  It is amoral.  

A business has a different function than a community.   If someone in the community hacked into a computer, that person would be prosecuted by the community. (It’s the law!)  But a business might hire the hacker.  Why?  Information.  The business is able to take a risk that the community is not willing or able to take.   However the community is still the basis of morality, the place where most of our Maslow needs are met and without which we cannot move forward.

EXPERIMENT Ideas (E 1-4) with Small Group Competition

E.1  Can each Neighborhood Community create jobs for some of the people who live there?  It may be a temporary structural change, but opportunity also.  Decision Making as Freedom means talk, search, and talk some more.

E.2  It is not enough to offer school choice to parents who do not know what a good education should look like or what it should demand.  Use competition for specific subject matter and include parents, students, and teachers on competitive teams to find faster, more durable ways of learning the material and the concepts covered.  

E.3  How to Focus on a Few, focusing the efforts of many in order to heighten the incentive for a few players.  How to pick players and judges randomly and mix them frequently?  Optimize a learning structure for the issue.

E.4  Sustainability of another community away from the small group competition.  Target learners could be in the nearby community or, with information technology, they can reach around the world.   Competition can make if more efficient.

SUMMARY

-Physical and social structures can help or hinder in finding useful information.  

-There are at least 3 types of power and they all interrelate.  Coercive Force of Arms as will not go away but we can use these other types of power to get things done. 

-The smoker does not need to be a player, but he or she needs the information that results from a well-structured competition.  The same is true of a parent looking for better education for their child.

-Hayek’s emphasis on the discovery of hidden knowledge is important.  Price signals create information for decision makers.  Price also measures addiction potential and indirectly affects our belief systems and stories that we create to live by.

-Decision Making as Freedom (DMF) is a seed and a mindset that can grow, primarily from one small group to another, one town to another.  Push others to reach a bit further than they have gone before.  Use small groups to experiment with the processes and structural changes to make decisions.

-Anyone can start and do formal or informal research on Small Group Competition at any level.  One can start with as few as 3 people.     

In the question of a Fatwa against building a nuclear weapons and the influence of Muslim leaders in Iran, there is an interesting discussion on a YouTube video with historian and International Relations expert John Mearsheimer.  (along with experts Mahsa Rouhi, Onur Isci, Tytti Erästö, and Eliza Gheorghe).

Search Youtube:   “Will Iran Get the Bomb?  with John Mearsheimer”

Whether or not the Fatwa will remain in effect is discussed at several places on the video –

0:33:43 (33 minutes and 43 seconds from the beginning

1:09:50

1:10:10

The “domino effect” is also mentioned.  (Is that analogy accurate?)

1:13:45

1:15:20

It is mentioned that Fatwas are often circumstantial and often change with the “interests of the community”.  But is that true?  And who decides the interests of the community? 

It is in this light that I share the “Invitation to DINNER” paper.   It may be true that the chance of nuclear war is small, but once the line is crossed, then the chance of nuclear war getting out of control is very great.  That is the logic of nuclear warfare.  God’s creation as we know it will come to an end.  

If our leaders take us to a place of destruction, we may not have to change leaders but we must show them other pathways and give enough good feedback to help us all to make a change.  All functioning systems use feedback, and it often comes from the outside. 

Except for a small group of “experts”, our leaders are afraid to talk about this issue, or they don’t know how.   Leaders need cover so that they can start to dismantle their own weapons.   The Invitation to DINNER is one way of providing cover for them.   

I invite you to share this with other religious leaders for further discussion, both inside and outside your own religion.

JOS

May 2022

A Way to Dismantle Nuclear Weapons Now

Only once before in the history of mankind has there been an opportunity to get rid of all nuclear weapons.  We now have another chance.  This chance appears to us now primarily for two reasons: 

1. Communication Technology and  2. World Travel. 

The first opportunity presented itself in the short period following WWII when the United States was the only country with atomic weapons.  Truman’s generals realized that we had a window of many months to stop the Soviet Union before they too developed nuclear weapon capabilities.  Some generals suggested a preventive war to knock out any potential threats in the Soviet Union but Truman found that idea morally repugnant.  This second and new opportunity will not appear like the first confluence of events, but in the long run it may be a more effective method.    

First we must look at the tools of language, the metaphors and mental models that we use to construct our thoughts and communicate these thoughts to others.  Metaphors help to build stories in the minds of people with shared experiences. 

They help create a believable story, a reason for action or changing direction.  Metaphors such as “head” of state or the “long arm” of the law help us think about some situation more clearly, but it must have some connection to reality. 

Three metaphors have been especially powerful in constructing stories about war and nuclear weapons (NW).  “Scorpions in a Bottle” was an early and vivid metaphor used by Robert Oppenheimer to describe the stance each nation must take when dealing with the extremely high explosive energy of nuclear weapons.   No one saw an easy way out.  The acronym MAD for “Mutually Assured Destruction” became both a description and a justification for their continued existence. 

During the Vietnam War, the “Domino Effect” was commonly used by government officials at all levels to warn against the systematic takeover of southeast Asia by communism.  It created a certain mental image in the mind of everyone who had been mesmerized by a line of falling dominoes, conveying an unstoppable force.

A third metaphor is that of two gun fighters like the ones seen in western movies.  This image is sometimes used to justify and perpetuate the Nuclear Arms race.  Gunfighters, of course, cannot lay down their weapons for fear that the other person will lie and take advantage of the situation.    

Metaphors can mislead or be incomplete however.  In the movies, the camera point of view supports the idea that there are only two fighters.  This implies that neither of them can risk laying down their weapon.  In real life these two gunfighters would be surrounded by a crowd of onlookers, some of whom would have guns themselves and be in a position to demand that the gunfighters put down their weapons – or they will not make it out.     

This enlarged metaphor shows a pathway out of the NW dilemma.  Because there are more people in the crowd and in scattered positions, there is no need for the gunfighters to mirror each other’s behavior as the weapons are laid down.  It does not require the coordination of endless negotiations.  Each can do it alone, now.

We might refer to the people with guns in the crowd as “Escorts” and the gunfighters as “Guests”, those people with their finger on the Nuclear Button.  Escorts may invite Guests to DINNER (DIsmantle Nuclear Now because of Existential Risks].  Along with the Invitation to DINNER is a Promissory Note that states  “IF – and only IF – any Nuclear Weapon is detonated as a weapon of war, anywhere in the world, we will take you out.  We will take out you, your family, and your friends.”  The feedback and invitation only needs to be to the people with their finger on the button and those around them.  It must be believable to those Guests.  So it must be both personal and public.  Names of the Guests and some, but not all, of the Escorts can be published in any mainstream or social media. 

The goal of The DINNER Plan is to push leaders and those around them to engage in discussions and action to dismantle nuclear weapons.  The silence on this issue, one of the most important issues of our time, is not natural, unless they have already pondered it and simply do not see a way out.  We need our leaders and those around them to think, talk, and then dismantle all the Nuclear Weapons.  If they do not, then we must push them to engage.  With the DINNER plan in place there is no need to wait for other countries to dismantle their nuclear weapons. 

Escorts and Escort Groups might send an Invitation to any civilian, military, or industry leader in any country who has agency and influence.  Escorts will work in self-organized Escort Groups, from a few people up to dozens or even larger.  They will be autonomous and may cross national boundaries.  It is not a social club however, and they may spend minimal time communicating with each other.  

Who are these Escorts?  These are the fishermen who rescued Allied soldiers at Dunkirk.  These are the people who participated in the French Resistance and modern day freedom fighters in Hong Kong.  They are nurses, teachers, active duty soldiers or business people.  Escorts can be other politicians too.  Leaders will always be surrounded by potential Escorts.

How bad could it be, these nuclear weapons?  Modern day nuclear weapons are up to 1,000 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.  One modern nuclear weapon could kill everyone in a city of 10 million people, either instantly or over a period of weeks.  Worldwide there are more than 10, 000 nuclear weapons, enough to destroy all life on earth several times over. 

The “nuclear club”, those nations who have acquired or planning on building nuclear weapons, is growing.  This increases the risk of nuclear war by accident, by misjudgment, by miscommunication, or ignorance of the power of these weapons.

Daniel Ellsberg studied risk associated with nuclear weapons for the RAND Corporation before he became famous for release of the Pentagon Papers.  In his recent book “The Doomsday Machine”, he discusses his conversations with commanders in the field and others who had their finger on the button.  What he found was a “chain of command” more loosely defined by these people than the rest of us on the outside could ever imagine. 

Ellsberg also cites studies done that projected a “nuclear winter” should there be an all-out nuclear war.   Exact numbers are an estimate of course, but it is thought that the ash and smoke thrown into the upper atmosphere would block 70% of sunlight for years, causing starvation of most humans and animals.

How does one know whether or not this is true?  How does anyone know?  Politicians themselves may not know, and it is unlikely that anyone from the nuclear arms industry would be honest on this question.  If you really want to know, you must find people who have the same concerns and form a small group to find out.  Only after a series of questions with further searching for answers can a better picture emerge. 

Though expanding metaphors can sometimes be helpful, language that does not reflect the real situation can lead us astray.  The use of the term “tactical” nuclear weapons now circulates among leaders in the military.  But there is no such thing as a “tactical” nuclear weapon.  The first nuclear weapon, whether or not it is called “tactical”, will be responded by 10 more nuclear weapons, and those 10 will be again responded with 10 each to make 100 and it will quickly be out of control.  That is the logic of deterrence.  

Then there will be no morning prayers.  Then there will be no goodnight kisses or children playing.  There will be no national anthem in any language, no starships exploring the galaxy, and there will be no more music.  It will all be over. 

Kissinger has said that everything beyond the first nuclear weapon becomes unpredictable.  One can predict however, that democracy will disappear with the first nuclear weapon, without argument. 

Clergy and leaders of any religion, those humble people who spend a lot of time pondering how to get others to look and think beyond themselves, play an important role here, depending on whether they give a thumbs up or down.  This may test their own belief about whether a God, or spirit of God, exists in humanity.   For unbelievers and atheists, any day is as good as any other for the world to end.  For believers who view themselves as the caretakers of God’s Creation however, the thought of it all ending is unbearable, an unforgiveable sin. 

Nuclear weapons have put us on a steep mountain and we are all tied together.  The only way down may be to go back the way we came.  That might mean an increase in the use of conventional warfare until we can get to a safer place. 

Looking back on the first opportunity after WWII, Truman did have at least one other option.  He could have made a public announcement to invite – to coerce – the Soviet Union to agree to an International Inspection Group, or IIG, that would have the power to go anywhere, to see any building or lab, and take cameras for all to see.  This would be backed up by sanctions and conventional warfare if needed, though that part would be carried out by other independent organizations.  There will be nations and dictators who try to take advantage of this.  They will try to bully others, but they cannot succeed.   Look around.  You will not escape.

This first opportunity to get rid of NW was highly asymmetrical because of a nuclear monopoly on the part of the US.  Even with the much more symmetrical situation today however, it would still be possible to start an IIG and do it completely separate from the United Nations.  Without an IIG and a DINNER Plan, nations will back off at the very suggestion of nuclear weapons as seen recently in the threat of their use by Russia in the invasion of Ukraine.  China too could threaten nuclear weapon use as a cover for invasion of Taiwan.   A DINNER plan gives an advantage to those nations who prepare ahead and are willing to use conventional weapons.  In the end, it may benefit all parties by giving more time.  

Peacemakers, the people who refuse to fight under any circumstances, should not view themselves as being closer to God than people who choose to fight for survival.   Fighters, on the other hand, should not view themselves as more patriotic.  Each has a role. The billions of dollars spent on NW could be much better spent on dealing with climate change, the other existential threat of modern life that, although slower, will be relentless if we continue on our present course.  Both of these existential issues must be addressed.  We can struggle for decades and consume many resources to deal with the climate issue, but if the NW issue is not addressed, it will all be lost, gone in an afternoon. 

To paraphrase Old Testament writers, there is a time to build, and a time to tear down.  This is the time to dismantle nuclear weapons.

JOS

March 2022

Concepts covered:  Power; Useful Information; Feedback; Group Structures; Privacy; Division of Labor; Focus Many on a Few; Pushing Others Uphill;  Building our own information filters with a GIG-type process.   (GIG = Group Information Gathering, a.k.a. Striker’s Game or Information Game)

 “Strikers Game by josuter”  (  https://youtu.be/6EPX8Jp-9Mc    ) is a simple Youtube video that covers some of these concepts.

One must talk about power.  Where does it come from?  Who has it?  How can power be used more creatively to address current situations?  The founding fathers of the US were not trying to empower the average citizen but rather looking for a way to prevent power from concentrating in another monarchy.

People with power don’t just give it up.  It was not surprising that the Icelandic Parliament did not agree to a new constitution drawn up by a body of citizens.  The United Nations seems to lack effectiveness in some areas because they have not considered their source of power.  Unlike the sovereigns they represent, they do not have the force of arms.  The power of the UN is rather in getting people together to talk and move ideas.

Having useful information or the ability to find useful information can be a great source of power.  This includes the concept of feedback, just like the thermostat that regulates the temperature of a room.  Feedback is another kind of information and the thermostat must be carefully constructed to give accurate information.   An important task of citizenship in a democracy is to give balanced feedback to leaders. 

Social structures and physical structures influence the flow of useful information.  The difficulty of moving useful information up a political power hierarchy is, in large part, due to the flow of power down from the top through a political power hierarchy.  Only people with money or those who represent a large organization can get ten minutes with their legislator.  This warps the feedback and tends to make the legislators more ignorant on those issues when they should be leading. 

Useful information does not have to parallel the flow of political power, but it may require some new social structures and maybe competition.  Nature, in many ways, is about competition.  We need to learn how to use it positively.

I agree with your idea that diversity is important, not simply to be fair to those who have traditionally been left out, but to bring new ideas and points of view.  This is especially true with the external environment seems to be changing.  Diversity increases the variety of feedback.  Feedback can also be a two-way street, with politicians challenging specific groups of citizens on specific questions and then follow-up at a later date. 

Privacy at some points of the conversation should be part of the process, even when the process itself is transparent.  It is essential for people to say what they feel without fear of repercussion.  Private meetings are common in government and industry.  They represent real power and citizens must design a process to make use of that power.  The process of being “open” all the time will not work.

The lottery system of the Greeks was a smart use of resources since it created a random sample.   Random samples will, on the average, be close to any other random sample, so the lottery is more about efficiency and division of labor than about fairness. 

How does one organize with no one in charge?  One can do an ad hoc division of labor and organize by birth day and month.  Use a Group Information Gathering (GIG) process or game with a starter Discussion Question and offer a prize – if needed.  Judging is done by people from the same pool so the process can be self-contained.  This can be used to find and filter Useful Information for ourselves or for other groups of people, pushing them up the hill.   Often there is no right answer, yet the right process will lead to similar outcomes.  We must challenge people to do real problem solving, not simply sell pre-packaged stuff. 

GIG allows for the discovery and development of better questions.  Public speakers often use rhetorical questions and even allow time for questions at the end of their presentation, but are these the best questions?  Do they facilitate a learning process, followed by action and then re-evaluation?   GIG can be efficient and self-sustaining.  Results can be reproduced and be useful to those who can create a balanced process.  It’s like baseball, a game once started by a few young people, now be played worldwide by any kid on any playground. 

In a “grand debate” the loudest voices control the agenda and results are more easily controlled by those in power.  On the other hand, a series of small debates that each build on the result of previous debates can be as accurate and useful, especially if participants can talk to others between each round of the game. 

The Global Citizen’s Assembly at COP26 will be ignored unless they can create an ad hoc division of labor, focus on a few issues, and push it toward a few chosen, key delegates. The process to do this can be started by anyone using a GIG game and a starter Discussion Question.  

We must re-establish the local, geographic community as the basis for morality because that is where our Maslow needs of food and shelter must be met.  This is opposed to an online community that can be very useful when searching for ideas and information, but the online community can also be dissolved at the click of a button. 

We citizens can build our own information filters.   We can control the structure of the feedback and GIG groups to tune up the integrity of the feedback process.

Updates from climate scientists always seem to bring worse news than the previous announcements.   They don’t want to be the bearer of bad news.  Scientists are generally reticent people who wait for someone in the media to give them a microphone.  Many of them are not able to think creatively about their own potential power.  They don’t look at the problem of finding and moving useful information as a research project in itself.

Focusing many on a few can be done by starting with a group of 100 or so, and together challenge a much smaller group, maybe a dozen people from one local community.  The small group is divided into several smaller teams, including a panel of judges, and given a starter Discussion Question (DQ).  This uses our love of games and competition to bring ideas to mind and engage in real problem-solving.  If there is no interest in the target community, then the prize money raised by the group of 100 can increase and/or move to another community as a matter of fact and without fanfare. 

Grass roots citizens can exercise this power, first by working apart from the established political power hierarchy.  One project could be creating low carbon communities (LCC).  Any result deemed invalid by officials or by opponents can be run by anyone through another one or more GIG processes.  Again, the process must be transparent even though there is some privacy and deniability for individual players. 

Would decision making on the Titanic have been better with a democratic process?  It depends on their ability to find useful information and have an efficient way of evaluating the risk.  If they find the risk too high and the captain still disagrees, they would have to force the captain to slow down and take a different course.  This scenario may seem far-fetched, but it is close to our situation in the climate crisis on a slightly different time scale.

At the moment, it seems democracy is struggling to find its feet.  People in Syria are grudgingly going back to Assad’s side because it seems more stable and predictable. 

Mass surveillance in a place like China is a power-play by a leader‘s Circle of Advisors and The Bureaucrats.  It may be that the Chinese leader Xi may not trust his own judgment.   Maybe he has lost confidence in himself because he has lost touch with grass roots citizens. 

So GIG offers a structure to Find, Filter, and Move Useful information.  It alternates periods of privacy in team meetings with public presentations and judging is done by people picked from the same pool of participants.  Still, experts and sponsors have input into the process.  GIG can be a tool for whistle blowers or dealing with Tyranny of the Majority.

Do we create processes that cause people to engage in the challenges ahead, or evade, like tax dodgers?  Playing games to push other people uphill can be played by anyone, no matter where they come from politically. 

  by John Suter

Disruption

A young Asian woman onstage at a local high school play stands with long jet black hair that gently moves with the air.  She could be Korean.  She is good at her role, engaged with the music and with the moment.  She is fortunate.  K-Girl seems such a contrast from the lives of Comfort Women, those Korean young women who might have looked and acted just like this student.  But Comfort Women lived during a time of war.  They lost much of their lives under brutal treatment, required to provide sex and comfort for Japanese soldiers on the war front.  

Recent articles by historians argue over whether or not the Comfort Women gave themselves voluntarily or were forced into a kind of slavery.  Whether or not they signed a contract may be a point of argument, but legalism falls short and cannot cover the extent of experiences that comfort women may have had.  It does not describe an imagined last kiss to a young soldier who, on the following morning, fought bravely until his body was riddled with bullets.  He too was conscripted and forced to fight.  

History cannot always find an answer.  The Old Testament provides a story of two women brought to King Solomon, each claiming to be the mother of a newborn.  Solomon came up with a plan that would force the women to make a decision, a quick decision, and thereby he could know what was in their hearts. Their decision would tell him who would make the best mother.  But neither he nor we will ever know the biological mother.  A similar situation in today’s courts would find each woman with a lawyer who does all the talking.  The question at hand would be resolved with a simple DNA test, yet we would still be unskilled at reading the heart.  

Abuse and selling of children into slavery has been around a long time.   We know another story from the Old Testament, the story of Joseph who was sold into slavery by his brothers.   Stories and songs make up a culture with spoken or unspoken expectations. The stories themselves may or may not be true, but they may convey some truth about a hidden personal strength or about the necessity of making connections.  Such a truth is found in a song by Peter, Paul, and Mary who sang about a young woman dressed like a man so she could follow her lover to battle.  

History

One recent article on the Comfort Women controversy brings in many names of other apparently well-known historians who may themselves have doubts about the authority of any writer who disputes previously established facts.  The article does not discuss the history of Japan and Korea leading up to WWII. A brief look at online sources such as Wikipedia reference the control of Korea by Japan for 35 years prior to WWII and previous control by China.  Korea was, fortunately or unfortunately, a passageway for both trade and fighting between Japan and China.  This history may have some bearing on the attitude of Japanese toward the Koreans, treating them as if they were property.   

In cultures that revere parents, it may also be true that fewer questions were asked.  Deals may have been made under the table by parents who needed the money.  So the issue of contracts v. no contracts for indentured servitude does not clear everything up.  It may be expecting too much to say that the cultural story and history of indentured servitude with abuse of women would have no bearing on the situation during the following period of WWII.

The extent of the #MeToo movement should not have been a surprise had we been paying attention.  Women do have power if they act together however.  Women could have ended our involvement in Vietnam if they gave their boyfriends and husbands an ultimatum: “if you leave to fight, I will not be here when you return.” One can imagine this leading to beatings or worse, but it would have ended the war.    

Privilege of the elites has kept them away from the battlefield.   It is privilege and the power of the sword that leads to treatment of those below them as commodities and women as property.  Hubris, pride, lack of information, lack of imagination, fear. These tend towards moral paralysis and war.  When the Pentagon Papers first became known to top advisors they should have resigned, at the very least.  But they all seemed to be waiting in the wings, waiting to be tapped for some higher position. 

Justice

Justice is not enough.  Black Lives Matter should ask for more.  They should ask for more leadership training, even with the leadership skills that already exist.  They should ask for better schools.  They should ask for drug treatment and ways to deal with crime in their neighborhoods. Local people must take the lead in finding ways to get it done and not depend only on the police. 

With social media one can never lose, but never win either.  So it is a tool, but by itself social media will not solve problems.  Many good people join the online virtual battle to get justice for Comfort Women, but they remain unconnected to the real world and limited in power.  They will give up power to people who can organize and create divisions of labor to get things done. 

Sensitivity training is good.  Boys need to learn how to treat women with respect.  Girls, on the other hand, may need toughness training.  Shahid Buttar, the only democrat in many years to seriously challenge Pelosi for her seat in Congress, was accused of sexism.  So Cancel Culture came out of the woodwork on social media to kill his chances of succeeding – ever.  Was his accuser planted by the opposition?  We may never know, but if so, it was a judo maneuver by the Pelosi campaign, using the power available to those on the Left to turn and defeat themselves.   As a practical matter, if women are to be leaders, they must learn how to keep eye contact with anyone long enough to read faces and emotions but yet be tough enough to deflect and discourage unwanted behavior.  This is toughness training. 

Pain

In the case of Comfort Women, their case may be heard by an international tribunal who may find their story to be correct.  But a court decision cannot give meaning and purpose to one’s life.  When it is all over, the lawyers and their supporters will leave, and in the morning the comfort women will still remember the pain.  What gives meaning to this pain? 

One can use pain as a source of energy to work with others on outside issues to give meaning and purpose. One might suggest two outside issues for these comfort women to work on, though they cannot do it alone.  The first of these is human trafficking, a current and ongoing problem.  Human trafficking is something that is happening today, not 75 years ago.  The goal would be to find out where and how trafficking happens, put a foot in the door, and make it stop.

The other issue is the reduction of nuclear weapons to zero.  With more countries developing weapons, the chance of thermonuclear war approaches certainty.  According to Henry Kissinger, everything becomes unpredictable after the first weapon is dropped.   Then no one will care about women or children anymore.  

This seems like David against Goliath, but if citizens don’t take the lead, who will?  Not politicians.  Not people in the military.  Probably not most religious leaders or people in the media, for reasons stated above.   

Joining with others to make progress on some issue can help to lessen the pain. Korean women could work with Japanese women on nuclear disarmament, something with which the Japanese are well acquainted.  It should be some outside issue not too close to one’s own suffering.  It is also how lasting change comes about.   And it can use non-violence.  Non-violent methods bring change that can last longer than military solutions.  Comfort women would know that. 

Even if we believe that we cannot force an opponent to dismantle, it is still possible for our side to get rid of all our nuclear missiles.  This may be the only way to end the nuclear arms race.  And we must go to zero.  If one believes that decreasing from 10K missiles to 5K missiles is progress, one does not understand the power of each missile.  Only a handful of missiles can end modern civilization as we know it.  One can argue that the role of the military is to hold the background stable while we citizens solve problems.  The purpose of the military then should not be to destroy human life on earth like a body’s immune system run amuck.  

Process

Why even consider the efforts of the seemingly powerless and victimized?  Why consider non-violent methods?  Courts don’t understand non-violence as a source of power since the courts themselves depend on force.  This is what maintains the current social hierarchy.  Force pervades any top-down organization that uses courts and contracts as the primary way to hold people accountable.  Our monetary system requires force of arms to maintain the integrity of the money supply and prevent counterfeit money.  So force is not all bad, right?  Yet the same social dynamics is what drives us to create nuclear weapons. By itself, force of arms will not get us to the next level.   

Hierarchies that depend primarily on force have difficulty finding and moving useful information, especially moving up to the next level up or giving feedback to the boss. 

It was no surprise that Donald Trump had nothing good to say about Greta Thunberg.  It was a surprise however, that she had already been in the news for many months before he was ever aware of her.   Obviously there was no discussion of Greta by his circle of advisors in the White House.  This is how dictators fall.  Those who are close and afraid to speak up make their leader ignorant, a cycle maintained by a social hierarchy based on the force of arms.  

Social Hierarchies create layers of power and layers of resistance to the movement of useful information and ideas.   It can be difficult to get information up the ladder.  The current pandemic is just one example.  We got off to a very slow start because of resistance to the movement of useful information.  With Ebola too, we were months behind before the US decided to help fight the spread.  This makes one wonder not only whatleaders talk about, but howthey talk.  What processes do they use to find and move useful information?  

Even media companies follow the bias of the owner.  This bias is easy for outsiders to see but obscure to those within.  A chilling effect can come from the outside due to threats, or from various social dynamics inside the organization.  It will continue if people at or near the top are not aware of what is happening.  They must create neutral pathways or a process to find better information.   Of course we want to find people who will speak truth to power, but real truth can only be seen in retrospect.  We are all playing a guessing game when we look at what tomorrow will bring.  

For Comfort Women we can provide opportunity and have expectations.  They cannot do it alone. But they are not alone.  Finding the right process will give us an opportunity to find new ideas from unexpected people in unexpected places.  We must know how to look.  It is not simply a matter of listening but rather doing, pushing a bit, and anticipation.