Tag: democracy

WinDG

Posted on by josuter

WinDG

Problem:  Democracy cannot function without good sources of information.    

Stories can be factually correct and still misleading if framing is incorrect or key parts omitted.  The same can be said for “truth”.   A better concept is “useful information”.   Useful Information (UI) implies a need for ideas and information to complete a specific task or answer a specific question.  It may require a search and more discussion.  

How do we even talk with people who have their own facts, or seem uninterested, or intent on building a counter narrative?   We can challenge them to a game of discovery.  We may discover new things too.  The tools of discovery involve the creation of small group structures to help find and filter useful information. Organizers of such groups can even make a small profit, a Win!   How do we start?

Good Question

We are all asked questions by family, friends, and teachers early in our own development.  Many of us will learn how to ask ourselves good questions.  Leaders and talking heads ask questions too, some of which are rhetorical questions – to which, of course, they have the answer.  Some questions are intended to mislead or incite some action in the audience.  The point here is that these questions initially come from someone else, even an outsider.  These may or may not be the best questions.  With a bit of practice and a few other people, we can learn to frame the problem, develop better questions, and search for solutions in a more efficient and effective manner.   

How Do You Know?  

This question, “How do you know – anything?” is an essential question to make progress toward solutions.  If this question is not asked, people don’t know that they don’t know.  Trusting the source is often equated with trusting the information.  The opposite is equally true, i.e. not trusting (or not liking) the source will lead us to reject information from them. 

Create Information Filters with Discovery Games (DG)

One can create an information filter on the receiving end (not the broadcasting end) by using Small Groups (SG) of people divided randomly into teams with a few players each, plus some judges, also picked randomly, who can decide which team has the best information and wins the prize.  This is real competition for a short period of time – minutes, hours, and sometimes days if the search time must be extended. Players and Judges (PJ’s) are mixed and remixed as needed.  Outsiders who may believe different facts can be invited a few at a time and folded into the mix.  One does not have to argue with them in public.  Simply challenge them to bring their facts to the game.  

Play Ball

Discovery Games follow the model of sports, except that the goal is to find and filter ideas and information rather than to hit a ball into the net.  There will be look-alikes who swear they have found the truth, but their results can be run through another filter at any level.  Which one will you believe?  The process must be efficient and take almost no time of the organizer or sponsor.   PJ’s can even start their own game.  If necessary, they can each put in a small bit for a prize to help focus their minds for a short period of time.  

Push the Process

DG’s can be useful, but the real power lies in pushing the DG process itself to other small groups and other communities.  Starting a new DG in another place can be the goal of a preliminary DG. Getting outsiders to use DG’s may require a larger starting prize, but not too high.  The prize should be just enough to hold attention for the duration of the game.  

And what issues?  What is the Discussion Question (DQ)?   It can be almost anything in which better information could make a difference, but there is really no limit.  It could be a personal question, a local issue within a church or school.  Even national and international issues are fair game. 

Campaign finance is often associated with ‘getting out the message’.  The number of votes received often correlates with the amount of money spent but this is not always the case.  It should be about finding better information.  Better information in political campaigns can be achieved with a DG-type filter.  This requires debates within the private team setting before presentation to each panel of  judges.  Debate is essential.  Andy Grove, CEO of Intel during an especially turbulent transition period, learned the importance of having a vigorous debate before making decisions that would affect the whole company.   Democracy now needs more real debates on many issues and at many levels.  

DG’s are not a social gathering. The goal is the finding and filtering of useful information.  Players can use any source of information.  Keep prize money local and offline if possible.  Challenge other small groups.  They must often make the discovery themselves.  An example might be a tobacco company who want to make cigarettes in a local factory to provide jobs.  Not everyone believes that is a good idea for their long-term health. 

Win Win Win

Readers of this web site (YOU) can start a DG and make a profit.  Your added value lies in organizing people who may not normally talk with each other.  You are giving them the tools to move forward on some issue.  Once people understand the game and want to play, they can contribution a small amount of money.  You keep 10% for organizing the game.  

You do not have to be the moderator, however.  Simply invite a dozen people (5 minimum) and divide them into 2 or 3 teams of Players, plus Judges (PJ’s).  Give a DQ (Discussion Question) and a time limit.  Teams meet in private.  Judges decide on the winning team and a prize is awarded.  Players and Judges can be re-mixed (or not) and the next DQ is announced.  This process is repeated until PJ’s find better information or have something to act on.  Follow-up to an action can be done with the same structure.

Why is privacy important?  Why is competition important?  These can be Discussion Questions for a game.  The DQ process must be transparent to the PJ’s, enough so that they can trust the results.  First games can start with any Discussion Question and then move toward more serious issues.  

Push Uphill

Once players understand the game structure they will expand its applications to other groups and other communities, near and far.  Competition can be with any other group and on any issue. Pushing one community uphill toward sustainability can be a series of games with many parallel DG groups focusing on that one community.  Why push others uphill?  Because a lot can be learned and brought back home to use.  Plus it can be fun. 

MWG

Posted on by josuter

MWG   (“There’s a Man With a Gun over there. . .”by josuter October 2025

These lyrics to a 1967 song by Buffalo Springfield were written during the Vietnam era, just before the violent Democratic Convention and Kent State shootings.  Fear was in the air.   The gun was a symbol of power.  The gun is near the top of the list of inventions that changed the course of history.  Guns can exert force at a distance, overtaking factors of strength and speed as survival mechanisms. 

In the halls of leadership guns have a constant effect on the course of history.  The guard with a sidearm prevents unwanted people from entering the office of the leader.  This is not all bad since it keeps order, but in keeping order, it also keeps out people who have different ideas and unwanted information.  Leaders are not stupid people, yet over time they become ignorant about what they should know.  They receive skewed information on the basis of the selection of people in the room.  This is a weak link in democracy and it favors the good salesman or lobbyist with a bag full of money.  

Guns not only protect the integrity of money and contracts but have been an essential tool of empire building.  Guns, money, and information form the top 3 powers of government.  Other types of power involve more time and organization.  In the short run, guns and money will always attempt to control information too, but this is tricky.  Democracy will not work without good sources of information.  Yet it is obvious that if guns control social structure, who’s in and who’s out, then guns can control ideas and the flow of information.  

Metaphors 

Information comes thru all our senses, but spoken and written languages are basic tools for storing, moving, and manipulating ideas and information.  Metaphors especially are a powerful tool of communication and provide tools for thinking and conveying ideas.  Metaphors and mental models can help or hinder solutions.  They must reflect reality accurately.  A “head of state” is not like the “head” of a human or animal and does not function in the same way.  The better, more accurate metaphor is “Guys with Guns”, since this more accurately reflects the source of power.  

Religion and Political Power 

Powerful stories too must touch reality at some points to be effective.  They cannot be totally fiction.  Gaza has gone awry because of a Story that does not apply.  The age-old conflict between Politics and Religion continues today.  All religions have an internal logic, even if one does not agree with the premise.  Their own internal logic might be used to find a way out of this conundrum by searching for inconsistencies.  Is our God only the God of our small group, or the God of all?  Is our God a living God?  If the answer is ‘yes’ to both of these questions, then the Story can change to find solutions to real problems.  

Even the definition of a word can have a powerful effect on our behavior.  Are the people on the other side “the enemy”?  or are they “the younger sibling?”  Taking this latter position puts us in the role of the older, more responsible sibling, and our behavior is allowed to change.  The words “War” and “Peace” are associated with the Nation-State rather than the “skirmish” of smaller groups.  Conflicts may always be with us if we choose that path.  We have a choice.  In any case, peace is a byproduct of better communication.  

The Emperor’s New Clothes (ENC) and the Dynamics of Fear 

The story of the Emperor’s New Clothes is not a story about ignorance but about fear.  It may be the fear of saying something stupid, or fear of being left out.  It might be fear of looking weak, especially at top levels of power.  In the story of ENC everyone at some level knew the emperor had no clothes, but it was fear that paralyzed them and kept them from saying anything.  This story repeats over and over again today.  It keeps us from responding or asking questions.  We can begin to address this fear by creating structures that provide some cover for people who may want to raise appropriate questions and comments.  

Social Structures Change Information

As with the gun, an intentional and temporary structural change of social groups can change the flow of useful information.  A different Structure and Process (SP) can bring different Questions to the table.  This is true for groups of all size.  As an example, a Select Security Council (SCC) in the United Nations might engage a small number of nations with special veto power as part of their specific SCC, whether it be agriculture, water, education, healthcare, etc.  This would make the UN more effective and responsive. 

Systems and Feedback – We Create our own Filters

Systems need feedback as a source of useful information, both from inside and outside.  Good feedback is required to make a system function properly.  If democracy is to be more than simply a way to divide the spoils, it must have a larger purpose and a way to solve practical problems.  Democracy needs better feedback at many levels.  

Sensors in a system can be quite small and dedicated to the measuring one thing such as temperature, or measuring the concentration of some element.  This information is directed back to a control panel designed to control larger machinery that will correct the balance and direction of the system.  Social feedback in groups is more complex since body language and tone of voice must be considered alongside ideas and information. Sensors in society might be small groups that are structured to find and filter information in a way that will give useful information to decision makers and to other people.  

End of the Nation-State?    Western hegemony can rightly be viewed as an Empire.  The idea of a Nation-State in Europe was adopted in 1648 after an exhaustive 30-year war and ending with the Treaty of Westphalia.  This system was relatively stable for hundreds of years.  Now there is some question about whether the Nation-State is up to the task to carry mankind forward.  Is there adequate feedback to people making important decision makers?  Those who would de-construct the nation-state must show new pathways to address social issues.  This will require a division of labor to handle the information on the many problems that will arise.   

Forming a new political party will take too long to address current problems.  New leaders may become corrupt by the time they come into office.  A faster and more effective way to make change is the formation of feedback loops within a system that has gone awry.  Feedback sensors within social groups can start with a handful of people who use a method to balance their own bias but keep the process moving.  The other factor for large scale change is to use a division-of-labor to divide the most pressing issues among people by their month of birth.  Those in January will have their own selected “special vote” on some issue that is different from those with a February birthday, etc.  Statistically, the outcome will be nearly the same for both large and very large groups on one issue.  Division of labor for information gathering can be done for many issues and will create better filters.  Supranational bodies such as the European Union or the United Nations seem unable to solve critical problems alone.  Maybe do not have the right structure – or they simply lack adequate feedback.  

A Way Ahead:  The Small Group Process (SGP) to Push and Pull from the Outside

Often the way out is not just putting the system in reverse.  The way down the mountain may be to go up and over to another path.  

Like learning to ride a bike or going to school, we were all pushed and pulled by someone else.  We can push and pull other groups uphill toward a future that they can make secure and sustainable.  We are not selling or recruiting but rather challenging the next group.   The small group process (SGP) can be started from the outside starting with a small group and using a PRICE mechanism.  (PRICE= Privacy of team meetings, Randomness in picking team players, Incentive, Competition, and Efficiency).  PRICE can counteract the negative social dynamics described by the ENC story.  The goal is to make the target group safe and sustainable, something that requires better communication at all levels. 

BC=Better Communication (BC) requires work and others may try to sabotage our efforts.  BC Games can be played with people we don’t really like or know.  There must be a goal or discussion question (DQ), and a time limit.  We know that guns and games can both change social interactions, but guns tend to be exclusive, whereas games are inclusive. 

Do we want the Empire to “Collapse” with all the ensuing violence? No, but any pathways of change must show how to address perennial social problems.  It will require a division of labor to find, filter, and move useful information on many issues and many levels.  Rather than the historical Mon-archy or Olig-archy the new structure must have agency at all levels – a “Poly-archy”.

The Small Group Process can re-capture the integrity of democracy by creating information filters, starting with a handful of people.  Their feedback does not start by going to a central government but rather pushing and pulling the next region, the next city, or the next neighborhood to build their own SGP and information filters.  This can even be done internationally, Beyond the Border (BtB).   The focus can be on any issue or it can be used to move the SGP to other locations.  If the goal is to make the next region, city, or neighborhood secure and sustainable, then this SGP may need to include forming their own security if police are absent or dysfunctional.  

Applications of Feedback Mechanisms

It is not enough to simply tell the truth.  We must push truth and Useful information (UI), sometimes with evidence, to decision makers, then use similar methods for follow-up.

Nation-States and their leaders seem unable to extricate themselves from a nuclear weapons buildup.  We must set a goal of zero nuclear weapons and start down that path.  Groups of 3 non-nuclear nations can form “trio sensors” that act as feedback to decision makers (DM) within nuclear nations.  The DM is someone who has their finger on the nuclear button or is close to those button-pushers.  The DM’s (along with their Family, Friends, and Colleagues) must be reminded of this on a monthly basis via letter, email, or phone call.  This monthly reminder can be made into a game and played at any level, between levels, and internationally.  

If leaders are unwilling or unable to listen and act, then the feedback becomes more pointed and intense.  The trio monitors one specific nuclear nation, and if there is imminent threat of nuclear war, or if nuclear weapons have already been used, then the non-nuclear trio will support the use highly accurate missiles to destroy the DM within the nuclear nation.  This can be done even after nuclear weapons are detonated.  This new structure may need to help re-direct a military industry that may or may not yet realize the dead-end of nuclear weapons build-up throughout the world.    

A second use of using the SG Process is creating a robust system of support in an unstable economy.  This cannot be started at the top but could be addressed with SG-type communication to improve local social dynamics in one location, then in a network.  The goal here should be to make the target group able to sustain themselves in the event of a recession, depression, or economic collapse.   

Governments cannot make everyone secure all the time.  We must push other groups to become as self-sufficient as possible.  Demonstrations are a politically acceptable way of pushing up against central powers.  But we must push in all directions.  If leaders don’t listen, SGP’s can be used to start a series of local debates.  It will be important to engage young men and women who otherwise may go off to fight someone else’s battle.  If we are to claw back democracy, we must create better information filters at all levels. 

Is Democracy the Problem?

Posted on by josuter

Is Democracy The Problem?                                                                                             jsuter@sbcglobal.net

Citizens blame leaders.  Leaders blame citizens.  Could it be that the problem is democracy itself?  In an interview by Danny Haiphong with Sean Foo and Richard Wolff, they discuss the inability of US business and investors to know the investing landscape.  If the current politics is unfavorable, investors only need to wait a few more years until another band of merry men and women take over.   This does not bode well for future planning.  China has a dictatorship but they still have 5-yr plans.  Russia too is not held back by a three-legged stool of democracy and seems to move faster.  

Are we seeing the end or an evolution of the Nation-State?  A complex system must change several things simultaneously if it is to maintain balance.  If only one thing is changed, the system will snap-back to what it was before, be it Deep State or whatever.  It is important to look at all aspects of our existence within the Nation-State framework.  This includes looking at the structure of government itself and analyzing what feedback mechanisms keep it on track.   

One option is to put more authority in the hands of a single regional leader, but then also make that leader removable at any time by 80% of any minority.  This would encourage communication in both directions and form a more Dynamic Democracy.  Even Israel could use a Dynamic Democracy for the benefit of everyone.  

A government which is set up only to divide the spoils will push leaders and citizens into separate spaces rather than have them work together to solve problems.   Grassroot citizens – as a group – are often ahead of their leaders, especially in the knowledge of what is happening on the ground.   Paraphrasing Friedrich Hayek: “there is often no substitute for information on the ground.”

Economics too must change if we are to address the health of the economy.  An additional currency could be added at the hyper-local level with about 100 people.  Properly used, hyper-local currencies (HLC) can be used to induce people to cooperate at the local level for the purpose of creating useful goods and services to trade on the open market.  In addition, it creates resistance to inflation and a buffer against recession.  Adding another currency at the hyperlocal level is where people can be accountable to each other without a court system. 

Banks create incentives or gradients when they direct money from one sector to another.  A business then uses that gradient power to create organization.  There are other ways however, of creating organization that can be started by people at the local level.  If ten bread winners are able to support two in their group for some period of time as determined by the group, then those two then can do any job that the group decides is important.   They answer only to the group.  This is an opportunity for grassroots engagement.  In fact, many changes may not start without grassroots.

A new type of nation-state can join with other nation-states and maybe even business to form clusters that have defensive military capabilities.  When the most powerful nation, where leaders dress in fine suits, cannot subdue one of the poorest nations where people dress like Star Wars characters, it may be time to think about different types of governing and military structures.  An Association of Non-Nuclear Nations (AN3) does not need large, impressive buildings or fancy accoutrements, yet such an organization can create a purpose and flexibility that is missing from the United Nations.  It is an exclusive club however, since nuclear nations cannot join.  

Military industries too could find other missions, arming small clusters (3) of non-nuclear nations with non-nuclear missiles, maybe even some that are supersonic.  Lots of money to be made here.  It will be defensive buildup, yet able to reach critical targets within nuclear nations.  This would remove the current advantage of nuclear weapons and point us toward a nuclear-free world.  

If war and war games are the purview of the nation-state, then anti-war games may be the purview of citizens who must otherwise make the sacrifice for war mongers.  What anti-war games look like is still unclear, but many things can be created by people at the grassroots with the goal of making the environment for a next-door neighbor or next-door country more predictable and stable.  We cannot escape the fact that much of nature is about competition, so assertiveness and even aggression may be needed if a potentially dangerous or de-stabilizing threat is detected.  The goal is to create a stable and predictable environment.  Petitions to Congress may not be enough. 

American citizens are told to “wake up!” – but sleep is not the correct metaphor.  People have the wrong story in their heads due to mis- or missing information.  Citizens can create additional information filters made up of small groups using any news source.  They then bring ideas and information back to hash it out in a private space, maybe with team competition.  This would benefit other readers and listeners of the news.   

Another tactic is to focus on one target region or town (foreign or domestic) for a short period of time with the goal of giving people the tools to making their region self-sustaining.  Others may benefit and learn from observation.   This too can be done with competitive games.  There are many places and many levels to start if there are people who see another pathway and share their vision.  One person can also set a gradient, just like a bank, only smaller, by creating an incentive for an individual or small group to answer some specific question.  

A transformed United States is more flexible and able to counteract the OBOR initiatives made by China in the developing world.  Rather than regime change, we can contribute to the developing country becoming independent and healthy.   That country will then be able to resist the OBOR initiatives – and we will gain trading partners.  

Liberty on Trial

Posted on by josuter

Liberty on Trial – Hearings on the USS Liberty                                       by josuter

This is the time for Congress to hold hearings around the attack on the USS Liberty by Israeli war planes in 1967. It may be a small bit of justice for those Americans killed, but more importantly, it will be a realization that Israel is willing to kill Americans in a white flag operation if needed to help pull the US further into the war with Iran. This is not out of the question. Hearings should be done soon. If Congress is cowed by the Zionist Lobby, there are many other places around the country where this issue can be discussed and debated.

Is it any wonder that Trump is an incessant liar? Mainstream media has ignored and covered up so much in the last decades. Mainstream media print whatever they are told. Truth-seeking media will persist in asking questions. The benefits of being an incessant liar allows Trump to lie to those power brokers around him: “I was told these were bunker-busting bombs.”

Diplomats complain that Trump does not do diplomacy in the normal way, and Trump does not read the daily intelligence briefings. Reagan and Gorbachev, meeting in Helsinki, both wanted to get rid of nuclear weapons but when they left the room the dark suits entered and nullified the intentions of their leaders. Why would Trump or Witkoff surround themselves with a group of people that cannot be trusted?

Tim Harford (“Adapt”) makes a case that new communication technology should allow more decisions to be made at the lowest level consistent with their ability to find useful information. This is in contradistinction to the man Netanyahu sitting in front of a big screen with a white cat sitting on his lap giving commands to everyone, including to Donald Strangelove.  

President Trump, either intentionally or unintentionally, is giving us a window of time to reclaim democracy. If Congress is unable or unwilling to decide on what is Anti-Semitic, this question could be decided at the institutional level, including universities and civic institutions, answering the specific question “What is Anti-Semitism?”. We know there is real Anti-Semitism and then there is the stuff that common sense simply rules out. If we cannot do this, then let’s hang up our boots.

Donald Trump, as the captain of the ship, may be willing to go down with it, taking neocons and Zionists with him. It will be a radical, but maybe necessary change to the Story of Democracy that is not just For the People, but Of and By the People.

Treatment for Nervous States

Posted on by josuter

This is a response to William Davies book “Nervous States”

Treatment for Nervous States                                                                                  by josuter

It is important to identify the problems.  The distinction between fact and fiction is a necessary one.  However, facts are only important if there is a decision to be made.  A pilot needs facts to make important decisions.  If no decision is required, then any narrative will work – until it doesn’t.  A further distinction must be made between facts that may be true, but not relevant, and not Useful.   We cannot go forward without Useful Information (UI). 

The 2008 financial meltdown was actually predicted by a small number of economists but there was no mechanism to get their arguments into the top level decision making circles.  So a large part of the problem is Finding, Filtering, and Moving UI.  Another example is that of campaign financing where money buys information channels.  But UI is the real prize here and it may be impossible for the sender (the politician) to prove their point of view.  It is possible, however, for the audience on the receiving end to construct their own filters.  

A major advancement is modern communication technology.  In your opening story about rumors causing near panic in crowd, it was communication technology that brought in the relevant information and ultimately prevented the situation from becoming worse.   Modern communication technology has drawbacks, however.  It can usually facilitate movement of information from side-to-side or broadcasting out-and-down to lower levels, but it may be nearly impossible to move UI up the ladder when one cannot get past the front desk.  

Consider the Questions that are thrown at us, the Metaphors and Stories that make the pieces of our culture.  Do they make sense?  Useful Information will never be 100% but maybe enough to act.  The all-important Question is “How do you know . . . X ?”   How do you know if what the media just reported is true?  What is missing?  This task may require a division of labor with filters to test the integrity of it all. 

One definition of sin is a break in a relationship.  This seems to be what is happening between the leadership and citizens in many countries.  It can be repaired by the actions of a few people at the top, but if that does not happen it will require a more concerted effort.  Vincent Bevins (If We Burn) notes that over the past few decades, social movements have not had the lasting effect that previous ones seemed to have.  Governments may be willing to tolerate demonstrations but not real change.  So change must be more subtle – maybe a change in direction or a change of the tools we use.  

Finding, Filtering, and Moving UI (FFMUI) will be a key to both unlocking the problem and for treatment of the situation.  It will require some creative thinking and use of other types of power besides barrel-of-a-gun or the power of money.  Other powers might include Division of Labor, Competition, and Targeted Feedback to name a few.  A Dynamic Democracy would incorporate many of these other powers, some of them being the power of the groups of people who are chosen in a random fashion with their own panel of judges.

The Nation-State as a mental construct has power because people act together and decide on rules and boundaries.  But Nation-States can evolve, however, by putting mild counter stress on the system in the right places.  We cannot wait for the unfocused energy of the crowd.  Rather, we can structure the growth in the proper direction, like bracing a growing tree to grow upright.  We can also push others to make some decision, even if that decision is a  small one.  Sports-like friendly competition to find and filter UI can also be useful.  

A social hierarchy has many layers, each layer using and sometimes abusing the layer below.  This is how bad feelings between various groups get started.  What are people asked to do by their leaders?  Some religions require 5 prayers each day.  Many find it to be a source of strength.  We cannot wait for extreme emotion to motivate crowds.  We need to go into neighborhood communities and challenge individuals and small groups.  

Standing at the starting line with a thousand runners ready to begin a race, the energy is palpable.  Crowds can certainly feel and act differently than the interaction within small groups and individuals.  We can still use competition in new ways, even with small groups. It may work start from outside the group.  After all, we are social animals.  We can push UI to other individuals and groups to push them uphill.  This is the reverse of Stories in the Old Testament where other tribes were pushed downhill and vanquished.  We can change the story.  Are those guys the enemy or are they our younger siblings?  It makes a difference.

Here in parts of the US we are starting a local process called Discovery Games (DG) with a dozen people who push other people to discover new ideas and information.  We challenge players to take the game and run with it on their own.  

Triple Play

Posted on by josuter

Triple Play 

by josuter

Social media and political podcasts have played an essential role in keeping the integrity of journalism alive.  It is essential for change.  In truth however, these podcasts are becoming a bit boring.  Mearsheimer seems too predictable, and sure, it’s fun to be a part of J-Nap’s club with his half-million followers, but what are he and his followers doing to end the forever wars?  It will take more than just getting angry or projecting ad hominem attacks.   

Leaders don’t care what citizens think.  We must make them care.  We must make them listen and change course.  The courts are too slow, and mainstream media is controlled by vested interests who hide the truth, only reporting what they find convenient.  This creates a glass ceiling for useful information.  We cannot reclaim democracy just at the ballot box.  It is time to move to the next level.   It is time for a Triple Play.

ONE-  Temple University  

The Question is “What is Anti-Semitism and what is Not?”  The goal here is to put decision-making back in the hands of Temple students.  Except for extreme cases, students should be able to judge what is anti-semitic and decide on a reasonable consequence.   We as individuals and Small Groups (SG) from all over the country can focus on Temple for a few weeks, pushing ideas and information to them.  This means up to and including public humiliation of those who abuse language or abuse their official position of power.  Don’t know anyone who attends Temple?  Maybe, but you probably know someone who knows someone else . . . we are all connected.    

TWO – 2,3,4th Tier Diplomats for Ukraine

The fact that our leaders are not talking with the Russians is frankly a sign of immaturity.  Citizens can playact diplomacy as an alternative channel for communications and publish their results.  We can cross borders with translators, using people of almost any age.  Just nominate someone and support them.  Create a Division of Labor for finding and filtering Ideas and Information.  Efficiency and integrity are top priorities.  This is not a social club.

THREE – Deconstruct Nuclear Weapons (NW)  

Nuclear weapons treaties are good but temporary.  In the long run treaties are not enough.   An increasing number of nations want Nuclear Weapons.  Therefore the chance of an accident goes up.  Decisions about whether or not to launch thousands of NW must be made within minutes.  A “launch” order will mean the end of human civilization.  Survivors – if any – will be in survival mode. Deconstruction of NW at this point in time is the better option.  NW can be replaced with Precision Kinetic Missiles (PKM) that are not nuclear, but they are precision and travel at supersonic speeds, from 5-10 times the speed of sound.  At the time of this writing there is no way to stop them.  i.e. There is no defense against PKM’s.  All countries, both Nuclear and Non-Nuclear should be part of an offensive PKM group of 3 or more nations.  PKMs can be triggered to work the same as a NW or set to trigger even faster.  A system of 3 or more PKM’s can be aimed at the capital city of a nearby nuclear nation, arriving sooner than a conventional missile.  This system is safer than any system of Nuclear Weapons.  A nation targeted by several PKM’s may need to find new leadership, but the country will survive.  This will remove reasons for the continued existence of NW.  

It is unlikely that Nuclear nations will institute this system by themselves.  Non-Nuclear nations, like responsible older siblings, must take the initiative to set up such a system.  

The leadership in the West has been wrong about many things during these forever wars, including estimating the strength and resources of both our allies and our opponents.  Inadequate information led to an incomplete mental models and poor understanding of the situation.  We will be unable to respond to changing environments – political, social, or natural environments – without better information filters.   

We must go beyond what our leaders can envision.  Humiliation should only be a last resort for people who cannot listen and learn.  We must look for more than someone to save us.  We need to develop communication channels and processes to find practical solutions.

Each of the items listed in this Triple Play will require some Person-to-Person (P2P) communication.  This can be difficult to get started.   For many reasons, P2P may be the site of greatest resistance to change.  It is the place of greatest fear, especially if one of the persons is holding a gun.  It is also the place of greatest love and greatest sacrifice. Democracy is won or lost at this level.  It is foundational.     

We must push others to make decisions.  Push them uphill.  The Temple students must not only be allowed to take control of the Sem-Anti-Sem issue but pushed to take responsibility for making judgements and considering consequences.  This is part of their education.  

We must find places and ways to increase our ability to ask good questions and search for Useful Information.  Play with the Question.  Try a hypothetical situation.  SGs may be the best place to start and try to figure out how to move useful information and ideas.  SGs can be started with few friends who strategize, then maybe pass flyers with Questions or Ideas around the neighborhood community (even anonymously to start).  i.e.  “How do you (we) know anything about issue X?”  Keep below radar until there is some momentum. 

Big issues will require some planning and Division of labor for Information Gathering (DIG). Yet each smaller part can be started by a small, local group.   We are not selling anything.  We are challenging others to play ball.  

Evolution or End of The Nation-State, Part A – Problems

Posted on by josuter

Evolution or End of the Nation-State?                          J. Suter

Part A – Problems

  1. History of the Nation-State

  2. Problems

  3. War

  4. Purpose

  5. Morality

  6. Power, Structure, Information

  7. New Factors

  8. Isolated

Are we witnessing the end of the Nation-State?  What does that mean?  What will follow?  Is the Nation-State (NS) the pinnacle of human social development?

Political scientist Nicolai Petro wonders whether the structure of the Nation-State has outlasted its usefulness.  He noted the 400-year existence of this structure that began the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648, ending the 30 Years War.  Other historians point to a similar structure that began after the Battle of Hastings 1066, fought over the crown of England in which William beat Harold and introduced Common Law.   Still others believe that Rome was a starting point.  Much has been written about the fall of Rome, but Roman historian Mary Beard thinks the more interesting question is why Rome grew so large.  She concluded that Rome made all the conquered people into citizens and pushed them up to a higher level.

The 109 participants who signed the Treaty of Westphalia never met all in one room because they hated each other so much.  This collection of princes and warlords were tired of fighting and so agreed finally to keep their hands off the “property” of others and, of course, not assassinate each other.  This agreement provided a framework for the nation-state.  It was a group of elites who determined the laws, rules, and boundaries.  Life became safer and more predictable for common people who just wanted to get on with their lives.

Future of the nation-state?   What will emerge?

In one of the Smithsonian museums of Washington is the bronze statue of a pre-historic man (we might call Smithsonian Man), naked and crouching with fangs bared.  Viewers who are able to grasp the profound message of humankind’s journey and the struggle to survive will realize how far we have come.  The next question almost formulates itself, “How much further can we go?”  Are we going toward a larger, One World Order?  If not larger, then how do we divide?  Do we diversify or do a re-org?  De-colonization, on the surface, seems to have some answers, though the number of civil wars indicates that the lines re-drawn were not chosen carefully, at least from the perspective of the people who lived there.

Hans Morgenthau, a well-respected political scientist from the last century, argued for balance over domination.  The choices may be broader, however.  What makes a system work well is good feedback to help make the needed adjustments for any change in the environment.  Good feedback requires good information to the control points or to the decision maker.  Most democracies have voting every 2-4 years and maybe some special elections.  That amount of feedback will not be enough, especially during transition.  This implies the need for more interaction, not less, and the need for feedback that is more specific and targeted. 

Problems of the nation-state model.

For all their power, nation-states still have lots of problems, some of which seem intractable: forever wars, climate destruction, growing income gaps, and potential for nuclear annihilation to name a few.  An incumbent re-election rate for Congress of 95% should tell us something about the declining state of this society and the sclerosis that prevents adaptation and adjustments.  The unusually high rate of re-election indicates who is knocking on the doors of legislators. 

War as catharsis.  War as business.

War as a catharsis helps to release pent-up tension.  In 1999, American author and military consultant, Edward N. Luttwak wrote “Give War a Chance”.  In it he argues that a peace which comes too soon will simply prolong the fighting.   Luttwak’s point may have been an attempt to go deeper, to find a fundamental change versus simply a superficial moving of the pieces on the board.  But from a country club point of view with cigar and whisky in hand, he may not realize that anything can be learned by these pawns on the chess board.  From the big guy’s vantage point, it’s easy to let the small guys beat themselves up, then move in and take whatever you want. 

Alliances form, alliances dissolve and form again among the elite, many of whom are business people.  In Arthur Miller’s 1940’s stage play “All My Sons”, Miller wrote about the potential consequences of a bottom-line mentality.  The businessman character in the play manufactured airplane parts but he cut corners to make a larger profit.  In the end he sacrificed his son who died in an airplane accident.  Profiteering continues today in the military industry that will charge whatever the market will bear.  To be fair, anti-war can also be used as a business to raise money, or for that matter, any hot-button issue where someone can hire permanent staff.

Can a nation-state respond adequately to a changing environment?  (“environment” here could be any type of environment – natural, social, economic, or political.)

For climate issues and the threat of nuclear catastrophe, the nation-state seems inadequate.  We are not finding and moving Useful Information (UI) in a way that optimizes problem-solving solutions.  Some nations with nuclear weapons do not even talk with their opponents, allowing confusion that tends to create even more confusion.  Why?  Is it lack of a good role model? Maybe social pressure?  

Eisenhower warned about the military-industrial complex, but why did he wait until the day he left office to warn against this problem?  Was he afraid?  Did he not know how to do it, or were there other factors that involved the social hierarchy?

A larger purpose for the nation-state?  What’s the Story?

Do the People serve the Government or does the Government serve the People? 

A theologian might ask the same question in a different way, “Who does God love more – people at the top or the Grassroots?”  With an all-powerful God, the answer should be “both”.  It is the human spirit that has the will to survive, but the question itself brings in all kinds of religious, philosophical, political, and social views.

We have not escaped the question about purpose.  What is the roll, the task of the nation-state?  Is it simply a division of spoils?  Is it keeping peace among its members, or protection from invaders?  Part of the role must be the facilitation of commerce, creating organization, and sharing a civic life. 

Does the nation-state need an enemy?  Enemies give us a reason for being, even as individuals.  The fall of the Berlin wall and dissolution of the USSR was an opportunity for a visionary to lift us up to a higher level, but instead we chose to keep our enemy.  As a writer who has written extensively on nuclear issues, Jonathan Schell points out that arms manufacturing perpetuates systems of sovereign states – and vice versa.  

Did we need an enemy when a loyal opposition would do?  The task of a loyal opposition is to challenge a leader, to temper ill-conceived plans, and to goad a leader into action when that would be the better course.  Looking at the design of democracy itself, it appears that the founding fathers were not trying to empower the grassroots as much as trying to prevent the re-accumulation of power in a few people around a king.  The three branches of the government divide that power with each branch having a different function.  As a whole, the structure provides balance, feedback, and accountability.

Is there a purpose for the NS beyond its own borders?  Democracy requires citizens to be educated on a wide variety of issues and so cannot function well in countries with low literacy rates.  Even in literate countries, individual citizens cannot know everything, so it becomes relatively easy to spread disinformation.   As Ambassador Chas Freeman noted, in a democracy it becomes necessary for politicians to demonize their opponents in order to get elected.  Of course, this leads to a loss of Useful Information.   Yet we must have Useful Information to go forward, especially when any environment is changing. 

Survival and Morality

Can we create a One World Order that is healthy for everyone?  Will it require more or less violence?  Maybe more competition.   It may be a business opportunity for people who have no common goal except to enrich themselves, but even such people have a drive to organize others and that can be good.  

People Political scientist John Mearsheimer noted that the Arab elites don’t really care that much about Palestinians.  Actually they may really care, but like all leaders, they are paralyzed by their position in the social hierarchy.  That leaves it up to the grassroots who care about an issue to push for change. 

The drive to survive is paramount for the group if not for the individual.  Soldiers are sent off to fight, allegedly to protect the rest of the group.  Even among the lower animals, there are many examples of individuals sacrificing themselves for the group.  The loyalty of dogs is legend in this regard.

We must consider the question of what we mean by morality.  A fair definition of morality is: That which leads to the survival of the group is moral and that which leads to the group’s destruction is immoral.  This is how combatants on opposing sides in a conflict can both be moral – because they are fighting for the survival of their group.  With advent of nuclear weapons, the “group” is now the whole world.  In conventional war, one group’s survival corresponds to the other group’s destruction.  Nuclear war changes this equation with both sides going to zero. 

Power Types

As noted by Mao Tse Tung, the Barrel of a Gun (BOG) is the primary political power.

The executive branch loves it.  Congress, courts, and the police are all OK with use of military and police power to keep order, as are most citizens who do not want chaos.  By itself BOG-power, i.e. military and police power, can create a social hierarchy, but it can also suppress what would otherwise be recognized as useful information.  Those with military power will work to entrain economic power and informational power by creating their own laws and creating a narrative.

There is also power in the ability to print money.  Efforts to print more money can sustain the empire for a short periods of time, but this dynamic only increases the resistance to the flow of useful information and creates a bubble for those at the top, eventually leading to collapse of those in power.  

True economic power is related not only to the vibrancy of the economy but to the system of courts and contracts which, of course, are backed up by BOG-power. 

Governments cannot function without a judicial branch to settle disagreements.  With a good attorney who knows the law and how the judge might rule, the court becomes a ratchet mechanism, pulling money and advantages toward those who already have a step up.  So, the spoils belong to those who can hire good lawyers. 

Structures Influence the Flow of Useful Information

In the distant past, challenges to a leader involved real battles and tested the physical power and wits of the leader.  Most current leaders are still alpha males surrounded by others who do the fighting or who know how to use military force for control.  Besides a well-developed brain and opposable thumbs, what makes humans so powerful is the ability to form a social hierarchy, a pyramid created by subtle forces, some of which are natural and some created by the interaction of many other humans. 

Military power alone can create a social hierarchy but the problem becomes that it becomes like having someone else’s credit card, spending other people’s money and sacrifice other people’s children.  It warps the information that comes to and from leaders because everyone standing on that social hierarchy is afraid of falling off.  They will bite their own tongue and self-censor when they should be speaking out.  This hyper-control of the flow of information creates a bubble, making them susceptible to delusions. 

Information power includes the power of story, religion, and beliefs.   Stories have power if they touch reality at some point.   Of course, there is power in knowing what information is accurate and useful.  Reliable sources and filters are quite valuable.  The ability to spread rumors and misinformation has always been with us but it can backfire with a gradual (sometimes sudden) loss of credibility.  

Non-Violence is an underappreciated power that many leaders fear, but also something that must be coordinated and related closely to informational power.  Because non-violence seems easy to derail with paid agitators, it is difficult to effect change.  Yet proponents claim that it is the only way to create long-lasting results. 

Sanctions offer a type of power and are a type of feedback – but are they effective?  If leaders of the country being sanctioned do not care about their citizens, the sanctions will not have the intended effect.  Furthermore, if the target country is now able to manufacture their own material it can have the opposite effect and make that country more resilient.

Information can be elusive.  Robert McNamara was driven to examine the reasons why we got into the Vietnam War and wrote “In Retrospect”.  Despite ideas and hints from others, he never found a useful answer, and so the problem persists.  Except for the few advisors who like to talk to the public, the circle of advisors around a leader are mostly faceless and unaccountable.  Yet they have access to information that makes them all power players, much like J. Edgar Hoover who had secrets on everybody in Washington.

Imagination itself is closely tied to feedback from other people.  At the end of WWII, Truman failed to imagine a way to keep nuclear weapons from spreading.   Russia was not in a position to refuse nuclear weapons inspection by either a US inspection team or an international inspection team.  Truman was notified of this opportunity but apparently did not get the feedback he needed to explore this option. 

Two new factors of modern life will have a profound effect as history unfolds.  The first is that we have run out of New Lands.  Aside from the melting ice at the poles, there is really nowhere else to go unless one is willing to push aside the people who already live there.  Losers cannot simply find another place to pitch their tent.   

The second new factor is the advent of communication technology, allowing instant communication worldwide.  This too is a game changer for those who know how to use it but can easily be abused.  A larger nation-state might require more social control and tools of surveillance.  It is almost certain that AI will be used for surveillance unless we have other structures in place. 

Isolated

As mentioned above, BOG-power creates a force field that severely affects the flow of useful information.  It is easy for those at the top to broadcast their message but nearly impossible for grassroots to move useful information up the ladder.  Ironically some of this difficulty stems from the apparent power of communication technology itself.  With everyone having access to the internet and social media it becomes necessary to create more layers to gain access to a decision maker. 

Some elite have no understanding of what is happening around them.    They are also not trained to think about feedback design as engineers or scientists might be, and so they remain isolated.  It may be impossible for current leaders to help make the necessary changes.  They may have no mental model and no vision of where to go.  They are frozen into position within their own local social hierarchy.  Major players on the world scene now seem unable or unwilling to talk and negotiate with their adversaries.  Diplomat Richard Haas, in an interview with Ezra Klein, said that he felt too may of the leaders currently in power are out of touch with current events and current pressures.  Klein agreed.   

On the other hand, Leaders cannot look weak or they will be taken advantage of by people who want more power.  This is true of any type of government, but in a democracy, politicians will not listen to voters who have no ability to punish them at the ballot box.  Long term survival of a nation also requires an ability to discover or to formulate better Questions, and just how does a democracy formulate better Questions when the mainstream media appear to be compromised?

What lies ahead?  This question should be a principal task of any leader.  It should be our effort not to tear down or create a revolution, but rather make the change from within, steadily and efficiently.   Grassroots people want stability and predictability.  Military actions strive to push the enemy off balance, but between conflicts, we should want people outside our group to feel stable so they do not feel the need to come and steal our resources.  

Empires die because of disintegration of borders or disintegration of the economy – but that is not what this is about.  This is about an evolution of the concept and structure of the nation-state itself, not individual empires.