Tag: feedback

MWG

Posted on by josuter

MWG   (“There’s a Man With a Gun over there. . .”by josuter October 2025

These lyrics to a 1967 song by Buffalo Springfield were written during the Vietnam era, just before the violent Democratic Convention and Kent State shootings.  Fear was in the air.   The gun was a symbol of power.  The gun is near the top of the list of inventions that changed the course of history.  Guns can exert force at a distance, overtaking factors of strength and speed as survival mechanisms. 

In the halls of leadership guns have a constant effect on the course of history.  The guard with a sidearm prevents unwanted people from entering the office of the leader.  This is not all bad since it keeps order, but in keeping order, it also keeps out people who have different ideas and unwanted information.  Leaders are not stupid people, yet over time they become ignorant about what they should know.  They receive skewed information on the basis of the selection of people in the room.  This is a weak link in democracy and it favors the good salesman or lobbyist with a bag full of money.  

Guns not only protect the integrity of money and contracts but have been an essential tool of empire building.  Guns, money, and information form the top 3 powers of government.  Other types of power involve more time and organization.  In the short run, guns and money will always attempt to control information too, but this is tricky.  Democracy will not work without good sources of information.  Yet it is obvious that if guns control social structure, who’s in and who’s out, then guns can control ideas and the flow of information.  

Metaphors 

Information comes thru all our senses, but spoken and written languages are basic tools for storing, moving, and manipulating ideas and information.  Metaphors especially are a powerful tool of communication and provide tools for thinking and conveying ideas.  Metaphors and mental models can help or hinder solutions.  They must reflect reality accurately.  A “head of state” is not like the “head” of a human or animal and does not function in the same way.  The better, more accurate metaphor is “Guys with Guns”, since this more accurately reflects the source of power.  

Religion and Political Power 

Powerful stories too must touch reality at some points to be effective.  They cannot be totally fiction.  Gaza has gone awry because of a Story that does not apply.  The age-old conflict between Politics and Religion continues today.  All religions have an internal logic, even if one does not agree with the premise.  Their own internal logic might be used to find a way out of this conundrum by searching for inconsistencies.  Is our God only the God of our small group, or the God of all?  Is our God a living God?  If the answer is ‘yes’ to both of these questions, then the Story can change to find solutions to real problems.  

Even the definition of a word can have a powerful effect on our behavior.  Are the people on the other side “the enemy”?  or are they “the younger sibling?”  Taking this latter position puts us in the role of the older, more responsible sibling, and our behavior is allowed to change.  The words “War” and “Peace” are associated with the Nation-State rather than the “skirmish” of smaller groups.  Conflicts may always be with us if we choose that path.  We have a choice.  In any case, peace is a byproduct of better communication.  

The Emperor’s New Clothes (ENC) and the Dynamics of Fear 

The story of the Emperor’s New Clothes is not a story about ignorance but about fear.  It may be the fear of saying something stupid, or fear of being left out.  It might be fear of looking weak, especially at top levels of power.  In the story of ENC everyone at some level knew the emperor had no clothes, but it was fear that paralyzed them and kept them from saying anything.  This story repeats over and over again today.  It keeps us from responding or asking questions.  We can begin to address this fear by creating structures that provide some cover for people who may want to raise appropriate questions and comments.  

Social Structures Change Information

As with the gun, an intentional and temporary structural change of social groups can change the flow of useful information.  A different Structure and Process (SP) can bring different Questions to the table.  This is true for groups of all size.  As an example, a Select Security Council (SCC) in the United Nations might engage a small number of nations with special veto power as part of their specific SCC, whether it be agriculture, water, education, healthcare, etc.  This would make the UN more effective and responsive. 

Systems and Feedback – We Create our own Filters

Systems need feedback as a source of useful information, both from inside and outside.  Good feedback is required to make a system function properly.  If democracy is to be more than simply a way to divide the spoils, it must have a larger purpose and a way to solve practical problems.  Democracy needs better feedback at many levels.  

Sensors in a system can be quite small and dedicated to the measuring one thing such as temperature, or measuring the concentration of some element.  This information is directed back to a control panel designed to control larger machinery that will correct the balance and direction of the system.  Social feedback in groups is more complex since body language and tone of voice must be considered alongside ideas and information. Sensors in society might be small groups that are structured to find and filter information in a way that will give useful information to decision makers and to other people.  

End of the Nation-State?    Western hegemony can rightly be viewed as an Empire.  The idea of a Nation-State in Europe was adopted in 1648 after an exhaustive 30-year war and ending with the Treaty of Westphalia.  This system was relatively stable for hundreds of years.  Now there is some question about whether the Nation-State is up to the task to carry mankind forward.  Is there adequate feedback to people making important decision makers?  Those who would de-construct the nation-state must show new pathways to address social issues.  This will require a division of labor to handle the information on the many problems that will arise.   

Forming a new political party will take too long to address current problems.  New leaders may become corrupt by the time they come into office.  A faster and more effective way to make change is the formation of feedback loops within a system that has gone awry.  Feedback sensors within social groups can start with a handful of people who use a method to balance their own bias but keep the process moving.  The other factor for large scale change is to use a division-of-labor to divide the most pressing issues among people by their month of birth.  Those in January will have their own selected “special vote” on some issue that is different from those with a February birthday, etc.  Statistically, the outcome will be nearly the same for both large and very large groups on one issue.  Division of labor for information gathering can be done for many issues and will create better filters.  Supranational bodies such as the European Union or the United Nations seem unable to solve critical problems alone.  Maybe do not have the right structure – or they simply lack adequate feedback.  

A Way Ahead:  The Small Group Process (SGP) to Push and Pull from the Outside

Often the way out is not just putting the system in reverse.  The way down the mountain may be to go up and over to another path.  

Like learning to ride a bike or going to school, we were all pushed and pulled by someone else.  We can push and pull other groups uphill toward a future that they can make secure and sustainable.  We are not selling or recruiting but rather challenging the next group.   The small group process (SGP) can be started from the outside starting with a small group and using a PRICE mechanism.  (PRICE= Privacy of team meetings, Randomness in picking team players, Incentive, Competition, and Efficiency).  PRICE can counteract the negative social dynamics described by the ENC story.  The goal is to make the target group safe and sustainable, something that requires better communication at all levels. 

BC=Better Communication (BC) requires work and others may try to sabotage our efforts.  BC Games can be played with people we don’t really like or know.  There must be a goal or discussion question (DQ), and a time limit.  We know that guns and games can both change social interactions, but guns tend to be exclusive, whereas games are inclusive. 

Do we want the Empire to “Collapse” with all the ensuing violence? No, but any pathways of change must show how to address perennial social problems.  It will require a division of labor to find, filter, and move useful information on many issues and many levels.  Rather than the historical Mon-archy or Olig-archy the new structure must have agency at all levels – a “Poly-archy”.

The Small Group Process can re-capture the integrity of democracy by creating information filters, starting with a handful of people.  Their feedback does not start by going to a central government but rather pushing and pulling the next region, the next city, or the next neighborhood to build their own SGP and information filters.  This can even be done internationally, Beyond the Border (BtB).   The focus can be on any issue or it can be used to move the SGP to other locations.  If the goal is to make the next region, city, or neighborhood secure and sustainable, then this SGP may need to include forming their own security if police are absent or dysfunctional.  

Applications of Feedback Mechanisms

It is not enough to simply tell the truth.  We must push truth and Useful information (UI), sometimes with evidence, to decision makers, then use similar methods for follow-up.

Nation-States and their leaders seem unable to extricate themselves from a nuclear weapons buildup.  We must set a goal of zero nuclear weapons and start down that path.  Groups of 3 non-nuclear nations can form “trio sensors” that act as feedback to decision makers (DM) within nuclear nations.  The DM is someone who has their finger on the nuclear button or is close to those button-pushers.  The DM’s (along with their Family, Friends, and Colleagues) must be reminded of this on a monthly basis via letter, email, or phone call.  This monthly reminder can be made into a game and played at any level, between levels, and internationally.  

If leaders are unwilling or unable to listen and act, then the feedback becomes more pointed and intense.  The trio monitors one specific nuclear nation, and if there is imminent threat of nuclear war, or if nuclear weapons have already been used, then the non-nuclear trio will support the use highly accurate missiles to destroy the DM within the nuclear nation.  This can be done even after nuclear weapons are detonated.  This new structure may need to help re-direct a military industry that may or may not yet realize the dead-end of nuclear weapons build-up throughout the world.    

A second use of using the SG Process is creating a robust system of support in an unstable economy.  This cannot be started at the top but could be addressed with SG-type communication to improve local social dynamics in one location, then in a network.  The goal here should be to make the target group able to sustain themselves in the event of a recession, depression, or economic collapse.   

Governments cannot make everyone secure all the time.  We must push other groups to become as self-sufficient as possible.  Demonstrations are a politically acceptable way of pushing up against central powers.  But we must push in all directions.  If leaders don’t listen, SGP’s can be used to start a series of local debates.  It will be important to engage young men and women who otherwise may go off to fight someone else’s battle.  If we are to claw back democracy, we must create better information filters at all levels. 

Is Democracy the Problem?

Posted on by josuter

Is Democracy The Problem?                                                                                             jsuter@sbcglobal.net

Citizens blame leaders.  Leaders blame citizens.  Could it be that the problem is democracy itself?  In an interview by Danny Haiphong with Sean Foo and Richard Wolff, they discuss the inability of US business and investors to know the investing landscape.  If the current politics is unfavorable, investors only need to wait a few more years until another band of merry men and women take over.   This does not bode well for future planning.  China has a dictatorship but they still have 5-yr plans.  Russia too is not held back by a three-legged stool of democracy and seems to move faster.  

Are we seeing the end or an evolution of the Nation-State?  A complex system must change several things simultaneously if it is to maintain balance.  If only one thing is changed, the system will snap-back to what it was before, be it Deep State or whatever.  It is important to look at all aspects of our existence within the Nation-State framework.  This includes looking at the structure of government itself and analyzing what feedback mechanisms keep it on track.   

One option is to put more authority in the hands of a single regional leader, but then also make that leader removable at any time by 80% of any minority.  This would encourage communication in both directions and form a more Dynamic Democracy.  Even Israel could use a Dynamic Democracy for the benefit of everyone.  

A government which is set up only to divide the spoils will push leaders and citizens into separate spaces rather than have them work together to solve problems.   Grassroot citizens – as a group – are often ahead of their leaders, especially in the knowledge of what is happening on the ground.   Paraphrasing Friedrich Hayek: “there is often no substitute for information on the ground.”

Economics too must change if we are to address the health of the economy.  An additional currency could be added at the hyper-local level with about 100 people.  Properly used, hyper-local currencies (HLC) can be used to induce people to cooperate at the local level for the purpose of creating useful goods and services to trade on the open market.  In addition, it creates resistance to inflation and a buffer against recession.  Adding another currency at the hyperlocal level is where people can be accountable to each other without a court system. 

Banks create incentives or gradients when they direct money from one sector to another.  A business then uses that gradient power to create organization.  There are other ways however, of creating organization that can be started by people at the local level.  If ten bread winners are able to support two in their group for some period of time as determined by the group, then those two then can do any job that the group decides is important.   They answer only to the group.  This is an opportunity for grassroots engagement.  In fact, many changes may not start without grassroots.

A new type of nation-state can join with other nation-states and maybe even business to form clusters that have defensive military capabilities.  When the most powerful nation, where leaders dress in fine suits, cannot subdue one of the poorest nations where people dress like Star Wars characters, it may be time to think about different types of governing and military structures.  An Association of Non-Nuclear Nations (AN3) does not need large, impressive buildings or fancy accoutrements, yet such an organization can create a purpose and flexibility that is missing from the United Nations.  It is an exclusive club however, since nuclear nations cannot join.  

Military industries too could find other missions, arming small clusters (3) of non-nuclear nations with non-nuclear missiles, maybe even some that are supersonic.  Lots of money to be made here.  It will be defensive buildup, yet able to reach critical targets within nuclear nations.  This would remove the current advantage of nuclear weapons and point us toward a nuclear-free world.  

If war and war games are the purview of the nation-state, then anti-war games may be the purview of citizens who must otherwise make the sacrifice for war mongers.  What anti-war games look like is still unclear, but many things can be created by people at the grassroots with the goal of making the environment for a next-door neighbor or next-door country more predictable and stable.  We cannot escape the fact that much of nature is about competition, so assertiveness and even aggression may be needed if a potentially dangerous or de-stabilizing threat is detected.  The goal is to create a stable and predictable environment.  Petitions to Congress may not be enough. 

American citizens are told to “wake up!” – but sleep is not the correct metaphor.  People have the wrong story in their heads due to mis- or missing information.  Citizens can create additional information filters made up of small groups using any news source.  They then bring ideas and information back to hash it out in a private space, maybe with team competition.  This would benefit other readers and listeners of the news.   

Another tactic is to focus on one target region or town (foreign or domestic) for a short period of time with the goal of giving people the tools to making their region self-sustaining.  Others may benefit and learn from observation.   This too can be done with competitive games.  There are many places and many levels to start if there are people who see another pathway and share their vision.  One person can also set a gradient, just like a bank, only smaller, by creating an incentive for an individual or small group to answer some specific question.  

A transformed United States is more flexible and able to counteract the OBOR initiatives made by China in the developing world.  Rather than regime change, we can contribute to the developing country becoming independent and healthy.   That country will then be able to resist the OBOR initiatives – and we will gain trading partners.  

Treatment for Nervous States

Posted on by josuter

This is a response to William Davies book “Nervous States”

Treatment for Nervous States                                                                                  by josuter

It is important to identify the problems.  The distinction between fact and fiction is a necessary one.  However, facts are only important if there is a decision to be made.  A pilot needs facts to make important decisions.  If no decision is required, then any narrative will work – until it doesn’t.  A further distinction must be made between facts that may be true, but not relevant, and not Useful.   We cannot go forward without Useful Information (UI). 

The 2008 financial meltdown was actually predicted by a small number of economists but there was no mechanism to get their arguments into the top level decision making circles.  So a large part of the problem is Finding, Filtering, and Moving UI.  Another example is that of campaign financing where money buys information channels.  But UI is the real prize here and it may be impossible for the sender (the politician) to prove their point of view.  It is possible, however, for the audience on the receiving end to construct their own filters.  

A major advancement is modern communication technology.  In your opening story about rumors causing near panic in crowd, it was communication technology that brought in the relevant information and ultimately prevented the situation from becoming worse.   Modern communication technology has drawbacks, however.  It can usually facilitate movement of information from side-to-side or broadcasting out-and-down to lower levels, but it may be nearly impossible to move UI up the ladder when one cannot get past the front desk.  

Consider the Questions that are thrown at us, the Metaphors and Stories that make the pieces of our culture.  Do they make sense?  Useful Information will never be 100% but maybe enough to act.  The all-important Question is “How do you know . . . X ?”   How do you know if what the media just reported is true?  What is missing?  This task may require a division of labor with filters to test the integrity of it all. 

One definition of sin is a break in a relationship.  This seems to be what is happening between the leadership and citizens in many countries.  It can be repaired by the actions of a few people at the top, but if that does not happen it will require a more concerted effort.  Vincent Bevins (If We Burn) notes that over the past few decades, social movements have not had the lasting effect that previous ones seemed to have.  Governments may be willing to tolerate demonstrations but not real change.  So change must be more subtle – maybe a change in direction or a change of the tools we use.  

Finding, Filtering, and Moving UI (FFMUI) will be a key to both unlocking the problem and for treatment of the situation.  It will require some creative thinking and use of other types of power besides barrel-of-a-gun or the power of money.  Other powers might include Division of Labor, Competition, and Targeted Feedback to name a few.  A Dynamic Democracy would incorporate many of these other powers, some of them being the power of the groups of people who are chosen in a random fashion with their own panel of judges.

The Nation-State as a mental construct has power because people act together and decide on rules and boundaries.  But Nation-States can evolve, however, by putting mild counter stress on the system in the right places.  We cannot wait for the unfocused energy of the crowd.  Rather, we can structure the growth in the proper direction, like bracing a growing tree to grow upright.  We can also push others to make some decision, even if that decision is a  small one.  Sports-like friendly competition to find and filter UI can also be useful.  

A social hierarchy has many layers, each layer using and sometimes abusing the layer below.  This is how bad feelings between various groups get started.  What are people asked to do by their leaders?  Some religions require 5 prayers each day.  Many find it to be a source of strength.  We cannot wait for extreme emotion to motivate crowds.  We need to go into neighborhood communities and challenge individuals and small groups.  

Standing at the starting line with a thousand runners ready to begin a race, the energy is palpable.  Crowds can certainly feel and act differently than the interaction within small groups and individuals.  We can still use competition in new ways, even with small groups. It may work start from outside the group.  After all, we are social animals.  We can push UI to other individuals and groups to push them uphill.  This is the reverse of Stories in the Old Testament where other tribes were pushed downhill and vanquished.  We can change the story.  Are those guys the enemy or are they our younger siblings?  It makes a difference.

Here in parts of the US we are starting a local process called Discovery Games (DG) with a dozen people who push other people to discover new ideas and information.  We challenge players to take the game and run with it on their own.  

Un-Corrupting the CIA

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Our Secret                                                                                                       by josuter

Corruption in the CIA is closely linked to keeping secrets, those things that only you and a few others know.  It’s real power.  Ask any 6-year old.  Corruption, as defined by an engineer, is about elements on a circuit board that are simply not working as they should, so we say they have become corrupt and need to be replaced.  It’s not about being good or bad.  We all have good and bad in varying ratios.  

Graham Fuller, ex-CIA analyst, says “I don’t know how you ‘un-corrupt’, if you will, an organization like CIA   . . . and I suspect ‘un-corrupting’ really means establishing an organization in which there is an openness and willingness to speak truth to power and not be afraid and twist it.”   This may be wishful thinking.  After all, finding hidden information is the nature of the work of the CIA. 

Take a group of top-level business people meeting in a secluded room.   The first thing they do is fix prices.  The walls that surround these people offer privacy and secrecy.  Common sense would suggest more transparency, but if secrets are exposed a scapegoat will be offered for public humiliation, leaving the system unchanged.  This happens at all levels and areas of society.   It’s a part of how social hierarchies are made and maintained.  We may not need transparency per se, but a way to separate useful information from the person who has that information.  

Finding good questions will help.  Finding good people can help too, but good feedback is really the key and can make up for weak questions and imperfect people.  Good feedback depends greatly on the immediate environment.  Who is in the room with you?  What are their expectations, spoken or unspoken?  What is their position and power over you?  How confident can you be of their advice or of other options?  Is one surrounded by people who celebrate a New Gaza Resort – all the while looking at others around them, carefully watching for the reaction in others too?  Or is one surrounded by Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS), generally a saner group of people.   

Recognizing the impossibility of getting the whole truth, one can get a good approximation with a structured approach.  A “First Person Reviewer”, i.e. the boss who wants better information, can assign a question to 2 or 3 small teams with several people on each team, hand-picked by the boss of course.  The questions should be hand delivered and include the names of others on each team.    “I want a one-page report back tomorrow with all your signatures.”  This may remove some of the boss’s ability to reward or punish but he or she will get better information.  

Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle states that one cannot know both the exact position and the momentum of any particle.  It’s either one or the other.  So a boss can either retain his or her ability to reward and punish individuals – or get better information – but not both.   The goal is to trap the truth, not the person.  Still, it may be important to get rid of compulsive liars, something that can be done using a similar approach.  

Herb Simon was known for his study of decision making and the theory of Bounded Rationality.  Many people say that this means you simply get someone with a lot of experience who will just make their best guess.  But what does the word “bounded” mean?  It is more than simply trimming off the less probable options.  Rather, it may reflect the importance of the group structure and process.  

Feedback to the Future

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Feedback in Nuclear Weapon Control Systems and Society

Precision Kinetic Missiles (PKMs) like the Oreshnik, some say, are a game changer.  Yet missiles are still being fired into Russia from Ukraine with NATO’s help.  The argument in this paper is that PKMs will not be a game changer unless they are part of a larger system with adequate feedback.  

We are now on the edge of a nuclear war, an apocalypse with no winner.  No nations will remain.  There will be no democracy.  If any people survive, they will be in survival mode.  The situation now is more dangerous than the Cuban Missile Crisis with talk of preemptive strikes by Rear Admiral Buchannan who himself does not realize that we cannot “win”.  He is not getting the information, the feedback that he needs to make better decisions.  But he is not alone.  More nations now believe they will be safer if they obtain nuclear weapons.  This may seem true if leaders see no other options or pathway to ensure their safety.  

Because of the ever-shortening time period to make a decision whether to launch a nuclear weapon (now 5-10 minutes), the first use of any nuclear weapon is likely to begin an all-out nuclear war and the end of humanity.  This risk is increased if there is no direct connection between the White House and the Kremlin.  

Complex systems cannot operate without good feedback to keep the system stable.  This feedback is often from sensors that may be quite small but that give important signals under specific conditions.  What we call international politics is a type of system that is quite complex, but it is still a system.  

Examples of feedback:  1.  The thermostat that helps to regulate the temperature of a room.  In most cases this can be adjusted by people in the room, though that may not be true in large conference rooms.  2.  Airplane landing gear must be in an up or down position.  This information on landing gear position is sent from the sensor directly to the decision maker – the pilot.  3. The human body has many systems that work together. Each system has sensors that detect changes and give feedback directly to keep that system stable.  The person’s brain may or may not be aware of any changes.  It is a marvel of engineering and worthy of study.   

Leaders in international politics are imagined to be in control.  We assume they have the necessary information to make good decisions.  Comparisons to a chess game are often used but one thing that Prime Minister Netanyahu has shown us is that leaders who think they are grand masters are actually part of the game and can be taken out.  

The power of PKMs is reflected in the words: “Precision” means it will hit the target exactly.  “Kinetic” refers to the fact that the missile is going so fast at supersonic speeds that it needs no payload to explode.  The kinetic energy is proportional to the square of the velocity and all of this energy will easily destroy the target.  Supersonic speeds also mean – as of this date – that there is no way of stopping or intercepting them.  

If one steps back and looks at the whole system, PKM’s make sense if they are under the control of small groups of nations and pointed to the head and critical infrastructure of the nearby larger nuclear states.   PKMs are thus only a game changer if part of a larger System feedback design.   Three countries, both nuclear and non-nuclear act as one sensor and must agree to fire their PKMs at the Headquarters of Nuclear Nations if anynuclear weapons are detonated.  Misfiring of a PKM by accident will not be nearly so destructive as a nuclear weapon, and the reasons for the misfire of the PKM can be found and corrected.  

PKMs can be given to or developed by groups of 3 non-nuclear, smaller countries to start this system of feedback, even if the larger nuclear countries decline.   Larger nuclear countries will join when they realize that this system is safer.  We can then begin to de-construct all nuclear weapons. 

If nuclear weapons are gone, the feared power shift from West to East will not be so large and imbalances can be addressed in other ways.  If 2025 is to be anything, it must be the year to construct feedback loops, especially for control of nuclear weapons.  This effort can start at any level, from Discussion and Discovery Groups, to the Congressional level. 

John Suter Communication Research

January 1, 2025

Prisoners of The Story – Or Not?

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Prisoners of The Story – Or Not?

Two thousand years ago maybe the Story “worked” but now it needs to be updated because the world has changed.  Opponents now have all the modern warfare technology.   We are not a few hundred people in a tribe fighting over hunting grounds or grazing lands.  

If Donald Trump becomes the next president, Biden may, in his remaining two months, let loose the dogs of war in order to make things more challenging for Trump.  Two of those dogs, B&S, are headed for jail if justice is to be served. They may stop at nothing, pulling us all down.

The Story can be changed if we look at other options.  B&S may never have thought of a Dynamic Democracy model, but it might be the only way forward when neither side wants a two-state solution (and which would allow continued lobbing of missiles to the other side).  

Having a liberal democracy with one-person-one-vote is a key part of the Zionist dream of having a homeland. Yet there are other options, including a Dynamic Democracy that chooses leaders by group methods. It can create dynamic feedback from groups instead of from individuals.  Specific groups may be required on some issues while other times randomly picked groups will work.  If constructed properly, social feedback can even control weapons of mass destruction on the international level.  This Dynamic Democracy model can work if leaders on both sides agree.  It also allows Jews as a minority to still play a prominent role in self-government of a homeland.  

You and I might not know how to move this model of Dynamic Democracy to B&S, but with only 6 degrees of separation between any two people on earth, there must be a pathway.  One can start locally, challenging people around you to consider how to move this model forward.  Results of the first round may give hints. Quickly follow the first round with a remixing of groups or introduction of new players.  This can be done every hour or two until a pathway opens up.  

If Israel only has a minority, then pushing for a liberal Democracy with one-person-one-vote could be the end of Israel.  A Dynamic Democracy as an alternative model could lead the way to finding solutions.

Evolution or End of the Nation-State?, Part C – Principles of Design for Change

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Evolution or End of the Nation-State?                                         J. Suter

PART C – Principles of Design for Change

General Principles:

  1. FB is Key

  2. Structures influence the FUI

  3. SG + Gradient create UI for FB

  4. FComp creates Gradients + Increased Interaction

  5. PUH + BTB

  *DIG Tools (# 2,3,4))

(FB=Feedback, FUI=Flow of Useful Information, SG=Small Groups, UI=Useful Information, PUH=Push Uphill, DM=Decision Maker, BTB=Beyond the Border, DIG=Division for Information Gathering, TL=Target Learner)

General Principles

What are the General principles for moving the Nation-State to the next level?  Providing Useful Information (UI) as feedback to Decision Makers (DM) is key.  We know that structures of any kind can affect the flow of useful information, so using small groups as a division of labor can help find and filter useful information. Competition can create gradients or incentives, resulting in more interaction.  Contrary to historical practices, we must push others uphill to create sustainable communities, both here and in other countries.  It may be the only way out.

Can we see ahead enough to survive?  How will we organize if there is no nation? What forces will provide a gradient if we give up the gun? (Don’t give it up!)  Who will give us a clear vision and a goal? (We do!).  If we want real change, the attitude that we can defeat other countries must be turned upside down.  We do not want our opponents to feel insecure.  We must push them uphill toward a sustainable existence, town by town, village by village. 

Milton Friedman described change: “Only a crisis produces real change . . . and actions depend on the ideas lying around.”   Yes, but that is change from the top when leaders feel the ground shifting.  Long term change is more like the biological change that happens within our cells every day.  That level of change is what creates and adult from two cells that just happen to meet during conception.  That’s change!

How and Who? – Personal Stuff

Creating change can be very personal, so a few personal suggestions are in order: Do not be surprised that average citizen does not want to talk about important issues when they have no tools to talk.  Who would listen to them anyhow? Look for creative applications, from small local issues up to the level of international affairs such as use of Dynamic Democracy for the Israel-Palestine Solution.  (see “Israel-Palestine Solution” at <  JoDa dot substack dot com  >)

In creating public conversations, grassroots people mostly do not have 1. A task or goal,  2. Time to Talk, Listen, Think, Decide (TLTD)  – at least not in public forums.  3. Small Groups (SG) with which to bounce off ideas and information.  They must create these themselves because no one else will. 

Resistance to this process may arise from any level.  There may be more resistance at the grassroots until they understand the process.  Try lighthearted issues to start. If resistance comes from leaders, then incorporate them into the process as players. Should feedback be anonymous?  Think about it yourself or ask your SG.

Some issues may require Privacy and Deniability as part of the information and feedback process.  Drop the cynics.  Confront and challenge detractors.  Postpone meeting with those who are angry and move on if there is no progress.  This is not a social club. 

Many will wonder, “Why should I push others up the hill?  It’s not my town.”  People with no direct skin in the game can be neutral observers yet create their own game with whatever goals they choose, just for fun or a challenge.   With this attitude, they may be able to work around the existing resistance within some local hierarchy or work around resistance from BOG-power alone.  This can benefit everyone.  (see Examples and Possible Applications below)

Connect people to each other

We cannot force a Western-style democracy on every country in the world, but we can still push people in other countries to listen to each other.  Find a specific individual in other country as a touch point and to start the process.  “Is someone stealing from them?”  With modern communication technology, this information can be found and passed on to other people of that country.  Connect people to people.

One example in the developing world is the building sanitary plumbing for a community.  This is an under-appreciated factor in the creation of a stable society since it helps to minimize disease-borne vectors.  This is also something that local people can do themselves if they have tools of organization and communication.

1. Feedback is Key

Why were European leaders stunned from recent election results?  They had different sources of information and were surrounded by advisors, each of whom had their own agenda.  i.e. They obviously did not have good feedback during their time in office and used only information sources that reinforced their position. 

As noted before, Feedback (FB) is good, useful information at the right place and right time.  Those who do not recognize the value of FB mechanisms are under the spell of the BOG-only force behind the social hierarchy.  For public policy or legislation, FB can be given from people on the outside and after a policy in place.  If leaders do not listen, then grow the number of SG’s and repeat.  Remember too that SG to provide FB can be comprised of a mix of people across national boundaries.  

2. Structures influence Flow of Useful Information

Physical structures, social structures, real or metaphorical structures – any structure where tension can be applied for discovery of ideas and information.  Many structures will be temporary.  People do not want change that comes too fast, so the best option is to make people part of the change process and part of the feedback loops.  Teach others to push even farther into their community or other communities to create secondary and tertiary effects.  This process can start at all levels but may also leapfrog levels of the local or larger hierarchy in order to Focus on a Few individuals (FOF), DM’s, or communities. 

Taiwan Perimeter – A Structural Solution

Looking at the situation in Taiwan from the Taiwan perspective, one can understand the mixed feelings since Taiwanese are ethnically and culturally very close to the Chinese.  Yet they have their own country independent of China and do not want to be given promises, then swallowed up like Hong Kong.  A structural solution might be beneficial.  Taiwan could invite a number of friendly countries to create settlements along their coast, each allowed approximately one square kilometer with access to the sea.  A wall or barrier controlled by Taiwan might surround that square kilometer (on 3 sides) so that the invited country remains separate.  From the air it would look like a square-tooth saw.  If China invades Taiwan they will have to get past these many teeth.  This increases the perimeter length of Taiwan just a bit and, on the positive side, may allow for more trade if that is what the various parties agree to.  Rather than become more isolated, the future nation-state may be more intermingled with its neighbors, bringing both enemies and friends closer.

Focus on a Few (FOF)

Creating good feedback is key for any kind of government.  But how does one start the change process with feedback to the decision makers, to neighborhood communities, or other grassroots people?   Use friendly competition to give feedback from many individuals or SG’s to one DM using the upside-down pyramid power.  The metaphor here is that of a magnifying glass focusing the sun’s rays on one spot.  This requires some coordination, but it can push for change.  

FOF can be positive or negative.  It can also be used in a positive way to push individuals uphill into a professional role (though it cannot guarantee a professional degree).  Maybe push someone to learn a foreign language to expand their capacity to communicate.  Focus many on one or two people, one or two DM’s.

We can challenge others, even those outside our own country.  People can be invited or challenged to play a game like baseball, but in which they make decisions for other people in other communities.  Even if there is no acceptance of the SG’s ideas, their world has been enlarged a bit.  Another strategy – After a round or two invite (you pick) and challenge others from those communities to be part of an SG. 

OPOV versus Dynamic Democracy?

What of the one-person-one-vote (OPOV) democracy?  Is this the best we can do?  Is it nimble or flexible enough to survive a changing environment?  A better solution for a faster changing environment is the Dynamic Democracy such as the one suggested as a solution for Israel-Palestine.  No matter what their percent of the voting public, secular Jews can control the military and national security because of outside threats, but other government functions can be headed by various other groups.  Like the Treaty of Westphalia, it can work if there is an agreement by the leaders or the people who sign an agreement.

Dynamic Democracy goes beyond majority rule to incorporate specific feedback loops.   An example might be some specific question about the federal debt given to the voters with a January birthday.  They may not have special voting rights but can provide useful information as FB, both to other voters and politicians. There is a need for specific FB on many issues, but especially in conflict areas SG may have to incorporate people with knowledge of the situation such as the conflict in Haiti.  Bringing in outside militia to Haiti may be a temporary solution but it is also top-down and susceptible to misinformation by the people taking control.  

If money warps useful information, Move the Money (MTM). 

Instead of supporting specific political parties or interest groups, we can pay each other to gather and filter information.  If necessary, currency can be created among small groups where accountability can be done on a frequent basis.  Create a Division of Labor for gathering and filtering information (DIG) on the many issues that need attention.  Divide by the day and month of birth, Age, Gender, Race, Religion.  Almost any division will work since other filters may also be added later. 

Intermediate (time, position) Goals are set locally. Push to make decisions.

Goals can be intermediate in time, place.  Push all directions.  Push-Pull others to make decisions, both small and large.  Share UI if possible.  Push discovery and tools of communication.  This does not require salesmanship.  Instead challenge others to search and discover.  Make the enemy more stable?  Yes.  Who has the most powerful God, the God who takes care of everyone?  Make this your Story. 

3. Use Small Groups (SG) and Gradients to find and filter Useful Information. 

    Then use this UI as FB for Decision Makers and others.

Moving Useful Information (MUI) is Not the same as surveillance.  Do Not get rid of privacy.  In fact, privacy is part of the SG process and essential to finding UI.  We do not need to make everything transparent. 

Increase interaction, not isolation.  Develop and discover good Questions – another role for SG.  Ask both general and specific questions.  Finding a workaround for a specific Decision Maker or Politician who will not or cannot listen. 

SG tasks include the gathering and filtering of information.  SG can meet online or face-to-face.  Participants can use any source of information and share the best sources with others.  To extend the example given above – the Division of IG among SG’s might be a division by birth month: January BD – an economic question; February BD –a defense issue;  March BD – a social issue.  

Work to make the process efficient.  Leaders with little time and strained resources will make people wait in line with petitions or requests, then make them go to the back of the line again.  We need a workaround.  If only BOG-power is used, then it becomes difficult to Move Useful Information (MUI) up the ladder.

Specific issues can start anywhere on any level.  Start with a Question or an Idea.  Then fin a Small Group.  Create gradients.  Do several rounds of Small Group work before approaching a Decision Maker with Feedback.  Some issues may require privacy and deniability.

4. Use of Friendly Competition to create gradients and increase interaction. 

Better input creates better output for DM’s and for us all.  This includes having good mental models and group processes.  To use friendly competition for creating gradients or incentives, each participant could bring few dollars for a prize.  Set up places and processes for people to talk, even about difficult issues and with people they don’t know or like much.  Push others just beyond their reach and to make decisions.  Results can be tested by other SG’s.

Gradients can be created to decrease Negative Tension that leads to conflict.  Crowd funding can create a gradient and a general direction, but more specific information filters are needed to move a community toward stability and sustainability.  When gradients are created to decrease negative tensions we should expect something from both sides of the conflict.  who

5. Push Uphill (PUH) and Beyond the Border (BTB)

Immigration issues have shown that borders are important.  We can go beyond the borders to create safe zones in other countries using these processes and decrease the pressure of immigration.  How do we do that?  Find someone who knows someone else who can contact or travel to the target town.  Being a “Target Town” (like “Target Learner”) is mostly a positive thing since it implies expectations and a willingness for outsiders to invest time and resources to push them onto a sustainable path.  Invest at least several days or weeks (months at the most) before moving on.  The time period should be similar to how much time it takes to show people how to play baseball or any new game they have never seen before. 

Examples and Possible Applications for Small Group feedback: 

Health Care and Education; Catch up on school lost because of Covid.  This could be specific grade-level work.  Teachers might help as consultants but if no teachers are available, then SG’s can do it alone.  Health Care – diabetes, obesity, competition to decrease fentanyl abuse and other addictions.  Use hypothetical cases if real cases are unavailable.  Domestic violence, inner city violence, or violence Beyond The Border (BTB) are possible applications; Sanitation projects; Homelessness is a current political football in major US cities.  Many of the Homeless can be participants and make decisions as part of a SG team and may offer insights to the right Questions or even to help to discover what the right Questions should be.  In all of these, we may find that current governments have no time or resources.  Yet fundamental changes can happen with good information gathering.  

OBOR – Structures and Small Groups for the International Arena

Another example might be the One Belt One Road (OBOR) that China is pursuing. China is not doing this simply for the benefit of other countries but also to expand China’s hegemony to a larger part of the world.   Taking out a few links from the belt is one strategy to counteract the process but this cannot be done at the leadership level alone.  We can push the target link country to become self-sufficient so that they don’t need China.  Traditional foreign aid that starts with leader-to-leader talks may be inadequate.  That type of structure lends itself to corruption that creeps in and money disappears.  Targeting these link countries must include all levels of society: teachers in one country working with teachers in the target country, farmers with farmers, business people with business people.  Make the projects small, quick and efficient.  The goal is not simply getting acquainted with other people but rather pushing and pulling people to make decisions. Start with FOF.

Parallel Information Sources and The Deep State

The NS might need an enemy, but does it need a Deep State also?  Probably not.  The function of Intelligence will still be needed to provide useful information for Legislators and the Executive Branch to make better decisions.  However, a Deep State that is not accountable is a problem.  It may be difficult to de-construct the agencies and then re-build them.  Here a mental model of a parallel bridge structure can help, not unlike the parallel bridge built in San Francisco after the earthquake.  Take the 195 (approx. 200) countries existing around the world and divide them among the 50 states so that each state is responsible for about 4 countries.  Each state can use any process to gather what they believe is useful information on their 4 countries and present it to Congress and the Executive Branch who can then compare that information with what they get from the current Intel Services.  Discrepancies should be explored, but it would provide a bridge to Intel agencies who are truly accountable to Congress and the President.  This is a task-specific project that can be done by the 50 States or by a private-public combination. 

Local or Regional Decisions on AI

One of the best uses of Artificial Intelligence is to increase the Real Intelligence of people learning anything new.  The downside of AI is becoming evident when nation-states use both AI and drones for surveillance.  At the present time, AI is also being used to target civilians in war-like situations.  If the community is the basis for morality, then any use of AI or drones should be cleared by each community who must concomitantly take responsibility for creating a safe place to live. 

Unless there is a visionary leader, one cannot start at the top.  And because they are busy with other things, grassroots people are not usually organized until they have a task, some tools, a structure, and possibly an incentive or gradient. 

Starting a SG & PUH

Are we changing the people at the top or at the grassroots, or are we simply changing the structure within which we act?  There will be resistance to any change from family, friends, and colleagues who say they have your best interests in mind and do not want you to do anything that might look “stupid”.  Is that good advice or are they simply afraid?  The irony is that our source of love (family, friends, and community) can also be the major source of resistance to any change.

The Target person may say they have “no interest” but they can still participate since we are looking at the learning process itself, not necessarily with playing permanent roles. We are also not taking an academic test. The power of the target learner is that, for a short period of time, he or she has a team to help find and filter useful information. 

Are we “challenging” people or “selling” to them.  Maybe some of both, but a straightforward challenge may help to decrease the effects of guilt and it will become easier to pose further challenges.  Think about how the sport of baseball or other team sports spread from town to town, even at the kid level.  The SG information processes will be similar.    It may be easier to pick Target Learner from outside your own group to Push Uphill. 

Must we make the nation-state disappear – or evolve?  Can we balance the system with better FB?  An application of better FB will help a better system emerge.  We can follow Hans Morgenthau and believe in balance over dominance.