Tag: history

MWG

Posted on by josuter

MWG   (“There’s a Man With a Gun over there. . .”by josuter October 2025

These lyrics to a 1967 song by Buffalo Springfield were written during the Vietnam era, just before the violent Democratic Convention and Kent State shootings.  Fear was in the air.   The gun was a symbol of power.  The gun is near the top of the list of inventions that changed the course of history.  Guns can exert force at a distance, overtaking factors of strength and speed as survival mechanisms. 

In the halls of leadership guns have a constant effect on the course of history.  The guard with a sidearm prevents unwanted people from entering the office of the leader.  This is not all bad since it keeps order, but in keeping order, it also keeps out people who have different ideas and unwanted information.  Leaders are not stupid people, yet over time they become ignorant about what they should know.  They receive skewed information on the basis of the selection of people in the room.  This is a weak link in democracy and it favors the good salesman or lobbyist with a bag full of money.  

Guns not only protect the integrity of money and contracts but have been an essential tool of empire building.  Guns, money, and information form the top 3 powers of government.  Other types of power involve more time and organization.  In the short run, guns and money will always attempt to control information too, but this is tricky.  Democracy will not work without good sources of information.  Yet it is obvious that if guns control social structure, who’s in and who’s out, then guns can control ideas and the flow of information.  

Metaphors 

Information comes thru all our senses, but spoken and written languages are basic tools for storing, moving, and manipulating ideas and information.  Metaphors especially are a powerful tool of communication and provide tools for thinking and conveying ideas.  Metaphors and mental models can help or hinder solutions.  They must reflect reality accurately.  A “head of state” is not like the “head” of a human or animal and does not function in the same way.  The better, more accurate metaphor is “Guys with Guns”, since this more accurately reflects the source of power.  

Religion and Political Power 

Powerful stories too must touch reality at some points to be effective.  They cannot be totally fiction.  Gaza has gone awry because of a Story that does not apply.  The age-old conflict between Politics and Religion continues today.  All religions have an internal logic, even if one does not agree with the premise.  Their own internal logic might be used to find a way out of this conundrum by searching for inconsistencies.  Is our God only the God of our small group, or the God of all?  Is our God a living God?  If the answer is ‘yes’ to both of these questions, then the Story can change to find solutions to real problems.  

Even the definition of a word can have a powerful effect on our behavior.  Are the people on the other side “the enemy”?  or are they “the younger sibling?”  Taking this latter position puts us in the role of the older, more responsible sibling, and our behavior is allowed to change.  The words “War” and “Peace” are associated with the Nation-State rather than the “skirmish” of smaller groups.  Conflicts may always be with us if we choose that path.  We have a choice.  In any case, peace is a byproduct of better communication.  

The Emperor’s New Clothes (ENC) and the Dynamics of Fear 

The story of the Emperor’s New Clothes is not a story about ignorance but about fear.  It may be the fear of saying something stupid, or fear of being left out.  It might be fear of looking weak, especially at top levels of power.  In the story of ENC everyone at some level knew the emperor had no clothes, but it was fear that paralyzed them and kept them from saying anything.  This story repeats over and over again today.  It keeps us from responding or asking questions.  We can begin to address this fear by creating structures that provide some cover for people who may want to raise appropriate questions and comments.  

Social Structures Change Information

As with the gun, an intentional and temporary structural change of social groups can change the flow of useful information.  A different Structure and Process (SP) can bring different Questions to the table.  This is true for groups of all size.  As an example, a Select Security Council (SCC) in the United Nations might engage a small number of nations with special veto power as part of their specific SCC, whether it be agriculture, water, education, healthcare, etc.  This would make the UN more effective and responsive. 

Systems and Feedback – We Create our own Filters

Systems need feedback as a source of useful information, both from inside and outside.  Good feedback is required to make a system function properly.  If democracy is to be more than simply a way to divide the spoils, it must have a larger purpose and a way to solve practical problems.  Democracy needs better feedback at many levels.  

Sensors in a system can be quite small and dedicated to the measuring one thing such as temperature, or measuring the concentration of some element.  This information is directed back to a control panel designed to control larger machinery that will correct the balance and direction of the system.  Social feedback in groups is more complex since body language and tone of voice must be considered alongside ideas and information. Sensors in society might be small groups that are structured to find and filter information in a way that will give useful information to decision makers and to other people.  

End of the Nation-State?    Western hegemony can rightly be viewed as an Empire.  The idea of a Nation-State in Europe was adopted in 1648 after an exhaustive 30-year war and ending with the Treaty of Westphalia.  This system was relatively stable for hundreds of years.  Now there is some question about whether the Nation-State is up to the task to carry mankind forward.  Is there adequate feedback to people making important decision makers?  Those who would de-construct the nation-state must show new pathways to address social issues.  This will require a division of labor to handle the information on the many problems that will arise.   

Forming a new political party will take too long to address current problems.  New leaders may become corrupt by the time they come into office.  A faster and more effective way to make change is the formation of feedback loops within a system that has gone awry.  Feedback sensors within social groups can start with a handful of people who use a method to balance their own bias but keep the process moving.  The other factor for large scale change is to use a division-of-labor to divide the most pressing issues among people by their month of birth.  Those in January will have their own selected “special vote” on some issue that is different from those with a February birthday, etc.  Statistically, the outcome will be nearly the same for both large and very large groups on one issue.  Division of labor for information gathering can be done for many issues and will create better filters.  Supranational bodies such as the European Union or the United Nations seem unable to solve critical problems alone.  Maybe do not have the right structure – or they simply lack adequate feedback.  

A Way Ahead:  The Small Group Process (SGP) to Push and Pull from the Outside

Often the way out is not just putting the system in reverse.  The way down the mountain may be to go up and over to another path.  

Like learning to ride a bike or going to school, we were all pushed and pulled by someone else.  We can push and pull other groups uphill toward a future that they can make secure and sustainable.  We are not selling or recruiting but rather challenging the next group.   The small group process (SGP) can be started from the outside starting with a small group and using a PRICE mechanism.  (PRICE= Privacy of team meetings, Randomness in picking team players, Incentive, Competition, and Efficiency).  PRICE can counteract the negative social dynamics described by the ENC story.  The goal is to make the target group safe and sustainable, something that requires better communication at all levels. 

BC=Better Communication (BC) requires work and others may try to sabotage our efforts.  BC Games can be played with people we don’t really like or know.  There must be a goal or discussion question (DQ), and a time limit.  We know that guns and games can both change social interactions, but guns tend to be exclusive, whereas games are inclusive. 

Do we want the Empire to “Collapse” with all the ensuing violence? No, but any pathways of change must show how to address perennial social problems.  It will require a division of labor to find, filter, and move useful information on many issues and many levels.  Rather than the historical Mon-archy or Olig-archy the new structure must have agency at all levels – a “Poly-archy”.

The Small Group Process can re-capture the integrity of democracy by creating information filters, starting with a handful of people.  Their feedback does not start by going to a central government but rather pushing and pulling the next region, the next city, or the next neighborhood to build their own SGP and information filters.  This can even be done internationally, Beyond the Border (BtB).   The focus can be on any issue or it can be used to move the SGP to other locations.  If the goal is to make the next region, city, or neighborhood secure and sustainable, then this SGP may need to include forming their own security if police are absent or dysfunctional.  

Applications of Feedback Mechanisms

It is not enough to simply tell the truth.  We must push truth and Useful information (UI), sometimes with evidence, to decision makers, then use similar methods for follow-up.

Nation-States and their leaders seem unable to extricate themselves from a nuclear weapons buildup.  We must set a goal of zero nuclear weapons and start down that path.  Groups of 3 non-nuclear nations can form “trio sensors” that act as feedback to decision makers (DM) within nuclear nations.  The DM is someone who has their finger on the nuclear button or is close to those button-pushers.  The DM’s (along with their Family, Friends, and Colleagues) must be reminded of this on a monthly basis via letter, email, or phone call.  This monthly reminder can be made into a game and played at any level, between levels, and internationally.  

If leaders are unwilling or unable to listen and act, then the feedback becomes more pointed and intense.  The trio monitors one specific nuclear nation, and if there is imminent threat of nuclear war, or if nuclear weapons have already been used, then the non-nuclear trio will support the use highly accurate missiles to destroy the DM within the nuclear nation.  This can be done even after nuclear weapons are detonated.  This new structure may need to help re-direct a military industry that may or may not yet realize the dead-end of nuclear weapons build-up throughout the world.    

A second use of using the SG Process is creating a robust system of support in an unstable economy.  This cannot be started at the top but could be addressed with SG-type communication to improve local social dynamics in one location, then in a network.  The goal here should be to make the target group able to sustain themselves in the event of a recession, depression, or economic collapse.   

Governments cannot make everyone secure all the time.  We must push other groups to become as self-sufficient as possible.  Demonstrations are a politically acceptable way of pushing up against central powers.  But we must push in all directions.  If leaders don’t listen, SGP’s can be used to start a series of local debates.  It will be important to engage young men and women who otherwise may go off to fight someone else’s battle.  If we are to claw back democracy, we must create better information filters at all levels. 

Is Democracy the Problem?

Posted on by josuter

Is Democracy The Problem?                                                                                             jsuter@sbcglobal.net

Citizens blame leaders.  Leaders blame citizens.  Could it be that the problem is democracy itself?  In an interview by Danny Haiphong with Sean Foo and Richard Wolff, they discuss the inability of US business and investors to know the investing landscape.  If the current politics is unfavorable, investors only need to wait a few more years until another band of merry men and women take over.   This does not bode well for future planning.  China has a dictatorship but they still have 5-yr plans.  Russia too is not held back by a three-legged stool of democracy and seems to move faster.  

Are we seeing the end or an evolution of the Nation-State?  A complex system must change several things simultaneously if it is to maintain balance.  If only one thing is changed, the system will snap-back to what it was before, be it Deep State or whatever.  It is important to look at all aspects of our existence within the Nation-State framework.  This includes looking at the structure of government itself and analyzing what feedback mechanisms keep it on track.   

One option is to put more authority in the hands of a single regional leader, but then also make that leader removable at any time by 80% of any minority.  This would encourage communication in both directions and form a more Dynamic Democracy.  Even Israel could use a Dynamic Democracy for the benefit of everyone.  

A government which is set up only to divide the spoils will push leaders and citizens into separate spaces rather than have them work together to solve problems.   Grassroot citizens – as a group – are often ahead of their leaders, especially in the knowledge of what is happening on the ground.   Paraphrasing Friedrich Hayek: “there is often no substitute for information on the ground.”

Economics too must change if we are to address the health of the economy.  An additional currency could be added at the hyper-local level with about 100 people.  Properly used, hyper-local currencies (HLC) can be used to induce people to cooperate at the local level for the purpose of creating useful goods and services to trade on the open market.  In addition, it creates resistance to inflation and a buffer against recession.  Adding another currency at the hyperlocal level is where people can be accountable to each other without a court system. 

Banks create incentives or gradients when they direct money from one sector to another.  A business then uses that gradient power to create organization.  There are other ways however, of creating organization that can be started by people at the local level.  If ten bread winners are able to support two in their group for some period of time as determined by the group, then those two then can do any job that the group decides is important.   They answer only to the group.  This is an opportunity for grassroots engagement.  In fact, many changes may not start without grassroots.

A new type of nation-state can join with other nation-states and maybe even business to form clusters that have defensive military capabilities.  When the most powerful nation, where leaders dress in fine suits, cannot subdue one of the poorest nations where people dress like Star Wars characters, it may be time to think about different types of governing and military structures.  An Association of Non-Nuclear Nations (AN3) does not need large, impressive buildings or fancy accoutrements, yet such an organization can create a purpose and flexibility that is missing from the United Nations.  It is an exclusive club however, since nuclear nations cannot join.  

Military industries too could find other missions, arming small clusters (3) of non-nuclear nations with non-nuclear missiles, maybe even some that are supersonic.  Lots of money to be made here.  It will be defensive buildup, yet able to reach critical targets within nuclear nations.  This would remove the current advantage of nuclear weapons and point us toward a nuclear-free world.  

If war and war games are the purview of the nation-state, then anti-war games may be the purview of citizens who must otherwise make the sacrifice for war mongers.  What anti-war games look like is still unclear, but many things can be created by people at the grassroots with the goal of making the environment for a next-door neighbor or next-door country more predictable and stable.  We cannot escape the fact that much of nature is about competition, so assertiveness and even aggression may be needed if a potentially dangerous or de-stabilizing threat is detected.  The goal is to create a stable and predictable environment.  Petitions to Congress may not be enough. 

American citizens are told to “wake up!” – but sleep is not the correct metaphor.  People have the wrong story in their heads due to mis- or missing information.  Citizens can create additional information filters made up of small groups using any news source.  They then bring ideas and information back to hash it out in a private space, maybe with team competition.  This would benefit other readers and listeners of the news.   

Another tactic is to focus on one target region or town (foreign or domestic) for a short period of time with the goal of giving people the tools to making their region self-sustaining.  Others may benefit and learn from observation.   This too can be done with competitive games.  There are many places and many levels to start if there are people who see another pathway and share their vision.  One person can also set a gradient, just like a bank, only smaller, by creating an incentive for an individual or small group to answer some specific question.  

A transformed United States is more flexible and able to counteract the OBOR initiatives made by China in the developing world.  Rather than regime change, we can contribute to the developing country becoming independent and healthy.   That country will then be able to resist the OBOR initiatives – and we will gain trading partners.  

A New Story to Avoid Nuclear War

Posted on by josuter

A New Story to Avoid Nuclear War

I was a young boy when my father told me something that I realized was not true.  I loved and admired my father, but why would he do that?  Maybe he believed it.  Maybe that’s what his father told him.  Both grew up in different times and different environments.  For that I could forgive him. 

When the environment changes, the story must change.  A powerful story must touch reality at some point yet leave room for imagination.  Culture is a collection of stories that work and have value in a particular environment.

Metaphors reflect our vision and understanding of the world.  We think in metaphors and use them to influence other people too.   Memes are metaphors with feet.  Allistair Crook says the fever of misleading memes should be broken.  But how do we do that?   It takes a long time for a bad meme to burn out.  Because of this lag it may be necessary to take counter measures simultaneously at multiple levels.   

The Story of The Emperor’s New Clothes is just as true today as it was when written nearly 200 years ago. The Big Lie in the tale was not that the Emperor had no clothes.  That fact was evident.  The Big Lie was that people who could not see the new clothes were stupid.  This made people shut up.  When political leaders are afraid to look weak, it increases the resistance to finding Useful Information, both for themselves and others. In the same way, censorship destroys language.  People hide what they mean and some others may create a new language.   

Israel needs a New Story.  Their Old Story worked in the past but not today in this new and different environment.  Can they forgive their fathers, or will they continue to be prisoners of an Old Story?  

Environment

By themselves supersonic missiles (SSM) can be viewed as a dangerous and destructive weapon.  But this is a nuclear weapon environment.  If only the Big Players have SSM’s they will simply be another weapon on the shelf and potentially destabilizing.  As a part of a larger system with feedback loops, SSM’s can be distributed to both nuclear and non-nuclear countries where they could be a stabilizing force, allowing us to back away from the Nuclear War precipice. 

Even several SSM’s fired by mistake or by malice will not destroy the whole world.  There will be time to investigate.  On the other hand, detonation of a single nuclear weapon will likely lead to thousands of them being launched.  Henry Kissinger noted that after the first nuclear weapon is launched everything beyond that point becomes unpredictable.  So it is highly likely that all the missiles will be launched.  Consideration of the atomic bombs dropped on Japan during WWII are not helpful in thinking through this problem since the United States was the only one who had them at that time.  This situation is more like the old-fashioned gun fight with two gun-slingers – except we are using nuclear guns and everybody dies, including the crowd.  Is this how we will treat God’s Creation, this great and miraculous Creation? 

Jonathan Schell’s book “The Gift of Time” was a reflection on the luck – or maybe providence – that kept us from using nuclear weapons in the decades since WWII.  But time can be so short and even disappear when leaders have only minutes to make a decision that will affect the fate of the world.  “He who hesitates loses”.  We must not put anyone in that position.  Yet some leaders believe that a nuclear war can be won.  That is the Story they tell each other – but it is misleading.  

Motivation of those who are Gender-Queer might be, in part, a statement that the alpha male model does not work anymore.  The alpha male model has brought us this far but continuing along the same path will lead to destruction of everything.  The risks go up even further when more nations want nuclear weapons.  Yet Queer people want to be protected too, so we and they must find some other type of defense.  

Nuclear weapons are not a “great equalizer” as some have said, but rather a “great destroyer”.  They warp reality and make individuals blind.  SSM’s could be a key stabilizer  and function to keep the larger system stable, but only if distributed among all nations and using interlocking regional groups.   

Types of Power

A Story can definitely have power but it must match the environment.  It should be obvious that we need other types of power.  It may be up to citizens to find and use those powers since current leaders are too busy and may have no motive to do so.  

Education is power.  30 years ago, Jackie Jackson, a public school teacher speaking as a guest on The Newshour, clearly stated that the value of education is survival of the group, not just getting a job.  We argue over school funding while the Russians educate their students in STEM subjects, allowing Russia to build SSM’s while the US  lags behind. 

Government, business, and mainstream media use BOG (Barrel-Of-a-Gun), money, and information as tools of power.  This aligns with the task of government to set boundaries, business to produce goods and services, and media to gather and filter information.  

These types of power might be called Type I or material powers since a person who possesses them has power.  Type II and III powers are process-structure types of power and include Division of Labor (DoL), Competition, PIE Games, Feedback (FB), Bottlenecks (BN), Focusing on a Few (FoF), or changing Target Learners (TL). 

Other types of power include: Discovery of better Questions, Discovery of Points of Resistance, Creation of New Stories, and various Information Games.  These are all types of power if they help to get things done. Organization itself might be considered a power, though it may be more a manifestation of power since many organizations will collapse when the power is shut off.  

What is the purpose of the Nation-State?   

The Treaty of Westphalia that ended the 30 Year’s War in 1648 was the result of exhausted warriors agreeing on some boundaries and promising to keep their hands off others’ property.  Since that time the Nation-State has evolved to become the primary protector of its citizens, plus creating a stable and predictable environment.  So the Nation-State can evolve, but can it change itself?   How?  And in what direction?  Feedback will be key.  

Can democracy handle these increasingly complex issues?  How do we Start?  Thinking about HOW we talk can be power.   

Small seed groups (2 or 3 people) can start something with one of these powers.  A discussion or debate does not have to save the world.  It only has to take one step or discover one idea.  The next step is a “process” discussion like “How do we get this idea into a larger group?”  Alternating Issue Debates with Process Debates will move us forward. 

We cannot simply point out mistakes or accuse someone of “hubris”.  There is hubris at every level, even among children who are unable to hear others from a lower station.  Maybe it’s boredom or not wanting to repeat things already learned.  Maybe it is a fear of looking bad or an effort to maintain the social hierarchy.   So we must help find a new path.  

Evolution or End of The Nation-State, Part A – Problems

Posted on by josuter

Evolution or End of the Nation-State?                          J. Suter

Part A – Problems

  1. History of the Nation-State

  2. Problems

  3. War

  4. Purpose

  5. Morality

  6. Power, Structure, Information

  7. New Factors

  8. Isolated

Are we witnessing the end of the Nation-State?  What does that mean?  What will follow?  Is the Nation-State (NS) the pinnacle of human social development?

Political scientist Nicolai Petro wonders whether the structure of the Nation-State has outlasted its usefulness.  He noted the 400-year existence of this structure that began the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648, ending the 30 Years War.  Other historians point to a similar structure that began after the Battle of Hastings 1066, fought over the crown of England in which William beat Harold and introduced Common Law.   Still others believe that Rome was a starting point.  Much has been written about the fall of Rome, but Roman historian Mary Beard thinks the more interesting question is why Rome grew so large.  She concluded that Rome made all the conquered people into citizens and pushed them up to a higher level.

The 109 participants who signed the Treaty of Westphalia never met all in one room because they hated each other so much.  This collection of princes and warlords were tired of fighting and so agreed finally to keep their hands off the “property” of others and, of course, not assassinate each other.  This agreement provided a framework for the nation-state.  It was a group of elites who determined the laws, rules, and boundaries.  Life became safer and more predictable for common people who just wanted to get on with their lives.

Future of the nation-state?   What will emerge?

In one of the Smithsonian museums of Washington is the bronze statue of a pre-historic man (we might call Smithsonian Man), naked and crouching with fangs bared.  Viewers who are able to grasp the profound message of humankind’s journey and the struggle to survive will realize how far we have come.  The next question almost formulates itself, “How much further can we go?”  Are we going toward a larger, One World Order?  If not larger, then how do we divide?  Do we diversify or do a re-org?  De-colonization, on the surface, seems to have some answers, though the number of civil wars indicates that the lines re-drawn were not chosen carefully, at least from the perspective of the people who lived there.

Hans Morgenthau, a well-respected political scientist from the last century, argued for balance over domination.  The choices may be broader, however.  What makes a system work well is good feedback to help make the needed adjustments for any change in the environment.  Good feedback requires good information to the control points or to the decision maker.  Most democracies have voting every 2-4 years and maybe some special elections.  That amount of feedback will not be enough, especially during transition.  This implies the need for more interaction, not less, and the need for feedback that is more specific and targeted. 

Problems of the nation-state model.

For all their power, nation-states still have lots of problems, some of which seem intractable: forever wars, climate destruction, growing income gaps, and potential for nuclear annihilation to name a few.  An incumbent re-election rate for Congress of 95% should tell us something about the declining state of this society and the sclerosis that prevents adaptation and adjustments.  The unusually high rate of re-election indicates who is knocking on the doors of legislators. 

War as catharsis.  War as business.

War as a catharsis helps to release pent-up tension.  In 1999, American author and military consultant, Edward N. Luttwak wrote “Give War a Chance”.  In it he argues that a peace which comes too soon will simply prolong the fighting.   Luttwak’s point may have been an attempt to go deeper, to find a fundamental change versus simply a superficial moving of the pieces on the board.  But from a country club point of view with cigar and whisky in hand, he may not realize that anything can be learned by these pawns on the chess board.  From the big guy’s vantage point, it’s easy to let the small guys beat themselves up, then move in and take whatever you want. 

Alliances form, alliances dissolve and form again among the elite, many of whom are business people.  In Arthur Miller’s 1940’s stage play “All My Sons”, Miller wrote about the potential consequences of a bottom-line mentality.  The businessman character in the play manufactured airplane parts but he cut corners to make a larger profit.  In the end he sacrificed his son who died in an airplane accident.  Profiteering continues today in the military industry that will charge whatever the market will bear.  To be fair, anti-war can also be used as a business to raise money, or for that matter, any hot-button issue where someone can hire permanent staff.

Can a nation-state respond adequately to a changing environment?  (“environment” here could be any type of environment – natural, social, economic, or political.)

For climate issues and the threat of nuclear catastrophe, the nation-state seems inadequate.  We are not finding and moving Useful Information (UI) in a way that optimizes problem-solving solutions.  Some nations with nuclear weapons do not even talk with their opponents, allowing confusion that tends to create even more confusion.  Why?  Is it lack of a good role model? Maybe social pressure?  

Eisenhower warned about the military-industrial complex, but why did he wait until the day he left office to warn against this problem?  Was he afraid?  Did he not know how to do it, or were there other factors that involved the social hierarchy?

A larger purpose for the nation-state?  What’s the Story?

Do the People serve the Government or does the Government serve the People? 

A theologian might ask the same question in a different way, “Who does God love more – people at the top or the Grassroots?”  With an all-powerful God, the answer should be “both”.  It is the human spirit that has the will to survive, but the question itself brings in all kinds of religious, philosophical, political, and social views.

We have not escaped the question about purpose.  What is the roll, the task of the nation-state?  Is it simply a division of spoils?  Is it keeping peace among its members, or protection from invaders?  Part of the role must be the facilitation of commerce, creating organization, and sharing a civic life. 

Does the nation-state need an enemy?  Enemies give us a reason for being, even as individuals.  The fall of the Berlin wall and dissolution of the USSR was an opportunity for a visionary to lift us up to a higher level, but instead we chose to keep our enemy.  As a writer who has written extensively on nuclear issues, Jonathan Schell points out that arms manufacturing perpetuates systems of sovereign states – and vice versa.  

Did we need an enemy when a loyal opposition would do?  The task of a loyal opposition is to challenge a leader, to temper ill-conceived plans, and to goad a leader into action when that would be the better course.  Looking at the design of democracy itself, it appears that the founding fathers were not trying to empower the grassroots as much as trying to prevent the re-accumulation of power in a few people around a king.  The three branches of the government divide that power with each branch having a different function.  As a whole, the structure provides balance, feedback, and accountability.

Is there a purpose for the NS beyond its own borders?  Democracy requires citizens to be educated on a wide variety of issues and so cannot function well in countries with low literacy rates.  Even in literate countries, individual citizens cannot know everything, so it becomes relatively easy to spread disinformation.   As Ambassador Chas Freeman noted, in a democracy it becomes necessary for politicians to demonize their opponents in order to get elected.  Of course, this leads to a loss of Useful Information.   Yet we must have Useful Information to go forward, especially when any environment is changing. 

Survival and Morality

Can we create a One World Order that is healthy for everyone?  Will it require more or less violence?  Maybe more competition.   It may be a business opportunity for people who have no common goal except to enrich themselves, but even such people have a drive to organize others and that can be good.  

People Political scientist John Mearsheimer noted that the Arab elites don’t really care that much about Palestinians.  Actually they may really care, but like all leaders, they are paralyzed by their position in the social hierarchy.  That leaves it up to the grassroots who care about an issue to push for change. 

The drive to survive is paramount for the group if not for the individual.  Soldiers are sent off to fight, allegedly to protect the rest of the group.  Even among the lower animals, there are many examples of individuals sacrificing themselves for the group.  The loyalty of dogs is legend in this regard.

We must consider the question of what we mean by morality.  A fair definition of morality is: That which leads to the survival of the group is moral and that which leads to the group’s destruction is immoral.  This is how combatants on opposing sides in a conflict can both be moral – because they are fighting for the survival of their group.  With advent of nuclear weapons, the “group” is now the whole world.  In conventional war, one group’s survival corresponds to the other group’s destruction.  Nuclear war changes this equation with both sides going to zero. 

Power Types

As noted by Mao Tse Tung, the Barrel of a Gun (BOG) is the primary political power.

The executive branch loves it.  Congress, courts, and the police are all OK with use of military and police power to keep order, as are most citizens who do not want chaos.  By itself BOG-power, i.e. military and police power, can create a social hierarchy, but it can also suppress what would otherwise be recognized as useful information.  Those with military power will work to entrain economic power and informational power by creating their own laws and creating a narrative.

There is also power in the ability to print money.  Efforts to print more money can sustain the empire for a short periods of time, but this dynamic only increases the resistance to the flow of useful information and creates a bubble for those at the top, eventually leading to collapse of those in power.  

True economic power is related not only to the vibrancy of the economy but to the system of courts and contracts which, of course, are backed up by BOG-power. 

Governments cannot function without a judicial branch to settle disagreements.  With a good attorney who knows the law and how the judge might rule, the court becomes a ratchet mechanism, pulling money and advantages toward those who already have a step up.  So, the spoils belong to those who can hire good lawyers. 

Structures Influence the Flow of Useful Information

In the distant past, challenges to a leader involved real battles and tested the physical power and wits of the leader.  Most current leaders are still alpha males surrounded by others who do the fighting or who know how to use military force for control.  Besides a well-developed brain and opposable thumbs, what makes humans so powerful is the ability to form a social hierarchy, a pyramid created by subtle forces, some of which are natural and some created by the interaction of many other humans. 

Military power alone can create a social hierarchy but the problem becomes that it becomes like having someone else’s credit card, spending other people’s money and sacrifice other people’s children.  It warps the information that comes to and from leaders because everyone standing on that social hierarchy is afraid of falling off.  They will bite their own tongue and self-censor when they should be speaking out.  This hyper-control of the flow of information creates a bubble, making them susceptible to delusions. 

Information power includes the power of story, religion, and beliefs.   Stories have power if they touch reality at some point.   Of course, there is power in knowing what information is accurate and useful.  Reliable sources and filters are quite valuable.  The ability to spread rumors and misinformation has always been with us but it can backfire with a gradual (sometimes sudden) loss of credibility.  

Non-Violence is an underappreciated power that many leaders fear, but also something that must be coordinated and related closely to informational power.  Because non-violence seems easy to derail with paid agitators, it is difficult to effect change.  Yet proponents claim that it is the only way to create long-lasting results. 

Sanctions offer a type of power and are a type of feedback – but are they effective?  If leaders of the country being sanctioned do not care about their citizens, the sanctions will not have the intended effect.  Furthermore, if the target country is now able to manufacture their own material it can have the opposite effect and make that country more resilient.

Information can be elusive.  Robert McNamara was driven to examine the reasons why we got into the Vietnam War and wrote “In Retrospect”.  Despite ideas and hints from others, he never found a useful answer, and so the problem persists.  Except for the few advisors who like to talk to the public, the circle of advisors around a leader are mostly faceless and unaccountable.  Yet they have access to information that makes them all power players, much like J. Edgar Hoover who had secrets on everybody in Washington.

Imagination itself is closely tied to feedback from other people.  At the end of WWII, Truman failed to imagine a way to keep nuclear weapons from spreading.   Russia was not in a position to refuse nuclear weapons inspection by either a US inspection team or an international inspection team.  Truman was notified of this opportunity but apparently did not get the feedback he needed to explore this option. 

Two new factors of modern life will have a profound effect as history unfolds.  The first is that we have run out of New Lands.  Aside from the melting ice at the poles, there is really nowhere else to go unless one is willing to push aside the people who already live there.  Losers cannot simply find another place to pitch their tent.   

The second new factor is the advent of communication technology, allowing instant communication worldwide.  This too is a game changer for those who know how to use it but can easily be abused.  A larger nation-state might require more social control and tools of surveillance.  It is almost certain that AI will be used for surveillance unless we have other structures in place. 

Isolated

As mentioned above, BOG-power creates a force field that severely affects the flow of useful information.  It is easy for those at the top to broadcast their message but nearly impossible for grassroots to move useful information up the ladder.  Ironically some of this difficulty stems from the apparent power of communication technology itself.  With everyone having access to the internet and social media it becomes necessary to create more layers to gain access to a decision maker. 

Some elite have no understanding of what is happening around them.    They are also not trained to think about feedback design as engineers or scientists might be, and so they remain isolated.  It may be impossible for current leaders to help make the necessary changes.  They may have no mental model and no vision of where to go.  They are frozen into position within their own local social hierarchy.  Major players on the world scene now seem unable or unwilling to talk and negotiate with their adversaries.  Diplomat Richard Haas, in an interview with Ezra Klein, said that he felt too may of the leaders currently in power are out of touch with current events and current pressures.  Klein agreed.   

On the other hand, Leaders cannot look weak or they will be taken advantage of by people who want more power.  This is true of any type of government, but in a democracy, politicians will not listen to voters who have no ability to punish them at the ballot box.  Long term survival of a nation also requires an ability to discover or to formulate better Questions, and just how does a democracy formulate better Questions when the mainstream media appear to be compromised?

What lies ahead?  This question should be a principal task of any leader.  It should be our effort not to tear down or create a revolution, but rather make the change from within, steadily and efficiently.   Grassroots people want stability and predictability.  Military actions strive to push the enemy off balance, but between conflicts, we should want people outside our group to feel stable so they do not feel the need to come and steal our resources.  

Empires die because of disintegration of borders or disintegration of the economy – but that is not what this is about.  This is about an evolution of the concept and structure of the nation-state itself, not individual empires.