MWG

Posted on October 7, 2025 by josuter

MWG (“There’s a Man With a Gun over there. . .”by josuter October 2025

These lyrics to a 1967 song by Buffalo Springfield were written during the Vietnam era, just before the violent Democratic Convention and Kent State shootings. Fear was in the air. The gun was a symbol of power. The gun is near the top of the list of inventions that changed the course of history. Guns can exert force at a distance, overtaking factors of strength and speed as survival mechanisms.

In the halls of leadership guns have a constant effect on the course of history. The guard with a sidearm prevents unwanted people from entering the office of the leader. This is not all bad since it keeps order, but in keeping order, it also keeps out people who have different ideas and unwanted information. Leaders are not stupid people, yet over time they become ignorant about what they should know. They receive skewed information on the basis of the selection of people in the room. This is a weak link in democracy and it favors the good salesman or lobbyist with a bag full of money.

Guns not only protect the integrity of money and contracts but have been an essential tool of empire building. Guns, money, and information form the top 3 powers of government. Other types of power involve more time and organization. In the short run, guns and money will always attempt to control information too, but this is tricky. Democracy will not work without good sources of information. Yet it is obvious that if guns control social structure, who’s in and who’s out, then guns can control ideas and the flow of information.

Metaphors

Information comes thru all our senses, but spoken and written languages are basic tools for storing, moving, and manipulating ideas and information. Metaphors especially are a powerful tool of communication and provide tools for thinking and conveying ideas. Metaphors and mental models can help or hinder solutions. They must reflect reality accurately. A “head of state” is not like the “head” of a human or animal and does not function in the same way. The better, more accurate metaphor is “Guys with Guns”, since this more accurately reflects the source of power.

Religion and Political Power

Powerful stories too must touch reality at some points to be effective. They cannot be totally fiction. Gaza has gone awry because of a Story that does not apply. The age-old conflict between Politics and Religion continues today. All religions have an internal logic, even if one does not agree with the premise. Their own internal logic might be used to find a way out of this conundrum by searching for inconsistencies. Is our God only the God of our small group, or the God of all? Is our God a living God? If the answer is ‘yes’ to both of these questions, then the Story can change to find solutions to real problems.

Even the definition of a word can have a powerful effect on our behavior. Are the people on the other side “the enemy”? or are they “the younger sibling?” Taking this latter position puts us in the role of the older, more responsible sibling, and our behavior is allowed to change. The words “War” and “Peace” are associated with the Nation-State rather than the “skirmish” of smaller groups. Conflicts may always be with us if we choose that path. We have a choice. In any case, peace is a byproduct of better communication.

The Emperor’s New Clothes (ENC) and the Dynamics of Fear

The story of the Emperor’s New Clothes is not a story about ignorance but about fear. It may be the fear of saying something stupid, or fear of being left out. It might be fear of looking weak, especially at top levels of power. In the story of ENC everyone at some level knew the emperor had no clothes, but it was fear that paralyzed them and kept them from saying anything. This story repeats over and over again today. It keeps us from responding or asking questions. We can begin to address this fear by creating structures that provide some cover for people who may want to raise appropriate questions and comments.

Social Structures Change Information

As with the gun, an intentional and temporary structural change of social groups can change the flow of useful information. A different Structure and Process (SP) can bring different Questions to the table. This is true for groups of all size. As an example, a Select Security Council (SCC) in the United Nations might engage a small number of nations with special veto power as part of their specific SCC, whether it be agriculture, water, education, healthcare, etc. This would make the UN more effective and responsive.

Systems and Feedback – We Create our own Filters

Systems need feedback as a source of useful information, both from inside and outside. Good feedback is required to make a system function properly. If democracy is to be more than simply a way to divide the spoils, it must have a larger purpose and a way to solve practical problems. Democracy needs better feedback at many levels.

Sensors in a system can be quite small and dedicated to the measuring one thing such as temperature, or measuring the concentration of some element. This information is directed back to a control panel designed to control larger machinery that will correct the balance and direction of the system. Social feedback in groups is more complex since body language and tone of voice must be considered alongside ideas and information. Sensors in society might be small groups that are structured to find and filter information in a way that will give useful information to decision makers and to other people.

End of the Nation-State? Western hegemony can rightly be viewed as an Empire. The idea of a Nation-State in Europe was adopted in 1648 after an exhaustive 30-year war and ending with the Treaty of Westphalia. This system was relatively stable for hundreds of years. Now there is some question about whether the Nation-State is up to the task to carry mankind forward. Is there adequate feedback to people making important decision makers? Those who would de-construct the nation-state must show new pathways to address social issues. This will require a division of labor to handle the information on the many problems that will arise.

Forming a new political party will take too long to address current problems. New leaders may become corrupt by the time they come into office. A faster and more effective way to make change is the formation of feedback loops within a system that has gone awry. Feedback sensors within social groups can start with a handful of people who use a method to balance their own bias but keep the process moving. The other factor for large scale change is to use a division-of-labor to divide the most pressing issues among people by their month of birth. Those in January will have their own selected “special vote” on some issue that is different from those with a February birthday, etc. Statistically, the outcome will be nearly the same for both large and very large groups on one issue. Division of labor for information gathering can be done for many issues and will create better filters. Supranational bodies such as the European Union or the United Nations seem unable to solve critical problems alone. Maybe do not have the right structure – or they simply lack adequate feedback.

A Way Ahead: The Small Group Process (SGP) to Push and Pull from the Outside

Often the way out is not just putting the system in reverse. The way down the mountain may be to go up and over to another path.

Like learning to ride a bike or going to school, we were all pushed and pulled by someone else. We can push and pull other groups uphill toward a future that they can make secure and sustainable. We are not selling or recruiting but rather challenging the next group. The small group process (SGP) can be started from the outside starting with a small group and using a PRICE mechanism. (PRICE= Privacy of team meetings, Randomness in picking team players, Incentive, Competition, and Efficiency). PRICE can counteract the negative social dynamics described by the ENC story. The goal is to make the target group safe and sustainable, something that requires better communication at all levels.

BC=Better Communication (BC) requires work and others may try to sabotage our efforts. BC Games can be played with people we don’t really like or know. There must be a goal or discussion question (DQ), and a time limit. We know that guns and games can both change social interactions, but guns tend to be exclusive, whereas games are inclusive.

Do we want the Empire to “Collapse” with all the ensuing violence? No, but any pathways of change must show how to address perennial social problems. It will require a division of labor to find, filter, and move useful information on many issues and many levels. Rather than the historical Mon-archy or Olig-archy the new structure must have agency at all levels – a “Poly-archy”.

The Small Group Process can re-capture the integrity of democracy by creating information filters, starting with a handful of people. Their feedback does not start by going to a central government but rather pushing and pulling the next region, the next city, or the next neighborhood to build their own SGP and information filters. This can even be done internationally, Beyond the Border (BtB). The focus can be on any issue or it can be used to move the SGP to other locations. If the goal is to make the next region, city, or neighborhood secure and sustainable, then this SGP may need to include forming their own security if police are absent or dysfunctional.

Applications of Feedback Mechanisms

It is not enough to simply tell the truth. We must push truth and Useful information (UI), sometimes with evidence, to decision makers, then use similar methods for follow-up.

Nation-States and their leaders seem unable to extricate themselves from a nuclear weapons buildup. We must set a goal of zero nuclear weapons and start down that path. Groups of 3 non-nuclear nations can form “trio sensors” that act as feedback to decision makers (DM) within nuclear nations. The DM is someone who has their finger on the nuclear button or is close to those button-pushers. The DM’s (along with their Family, Friends, and Colleagues) must be reminded of this on a monthly basis via letter, email, or phone call. This monthly reminder can be made into a game and played at any level, between levels, and internationally.

If leaders are unwilling or unable to listen and act, then the feedback becomes more pointed and intense. The trio monitors one specific nuclear nation, and if there is imminent threat of nuclear war, or if nuclear weapons have already been used, then the non-nuclear trio will support the use highly accurate missiles to destroy the DM within the nuclear nation. This can be done even after nuclear weapons are detonated. This new structure may need to help re-direct a military industry that may or may not yet realize the dead-end of nuclear weapons build-up throughout the world.

A second use of using the SG Process is creating a robust system of support in an unstable economy. This cannot be started at the top but could be addressed with SG-type communication to improve local social dynamics in one location, then in a network. The goal here should be to make the target group able to sustain themselves in the event of a recession, depression, or economic collapse.

Governments cannot make everyone secure all the time. We must push other groups to become as self-sufficient as possible. Demonstrations are a politically acceptable way of pushing up against central powers. But we must push in all directions. If leaders don’t listen, SGP’s can be used to start a series of local debates. It will be important to engage young men and women who otherwise may go off to fight someone else’s battle. If we are to claw back democracy, we must create better information filters at all levels.

Treatment for Nervous States

Posted on February 24, 2025 by josuter

This is a response to William Davies book “Nervous States”

Treatment for Nervous States by josuter

It is important to identify the problems. The distinction between fact and fiction is a necessary one. However, facts are only important if there is a decision to be made. A pilot needs facts to make important decisions. If no decision is required, then any narrative will work – until it doesn’t. A further distinction must be made between facts that may be true, but not relevant, and not Useful. We cannot go forward without Useful Information (UI).

The 2008 financial meltdown was actually predicted by a small number of economists but there was no mechanism to get their arguments into the top level decision making circles. So a large part of the problem is Finding, Filtering, and Moving UI. Another example is that of campaign financing where money buys information channels. But UI is the real prize here and it may be impossible for the sender (the politician) to prove their point of view. It is possible, however, for the audience on the receiving end to construct their own filters.

A major advancement is modern communication technology. In your opening story about rumors causing near panic in crowd, it was communication technology that brought in the relevant information and ultimately prevented the situation from becoming worse. Modern communication technology has drawbacks, however. It can usually facilitate movement of information from side-to-side or broadcasting out-and-down to lower levels, but it may be nearly impossible to move UI up the ladder when one cannot get past the front desk.

Consider the Questions that are thrown at us, the Metaphors and Stories that make the pieces of our culture. Do they make sense? Useful Information will never be 100% but maybe enough to act. The all-important Question is “How do you know . . . X ?” How do you know if what the media just reported is true? What is missing? This task may require a division of labor with filters to test the integrity of it all.

One definition of sin is a break in a relationship. This seems to be what is happening between the leadership and citizens in many countries. It can be repaired by the actions of a few people at the top, but if that does not happen it will require a more concerted effort. Vincent Bevins (If We Burn) notes that over the past few decades, social movements have not had the lasting effect that previous ones seemed to have. Governments may be willing to tolerate demonstrations but not real change. So change must be more subtle – maybe a change in direction or a change of the tools we use.

Finding, Filtering, and Moving UI (FFMUI) will be a key to both unlocking the problem and for treatment of the situation. It will require some creative thinking and use of other types of power besides barrel-of-a-gun or the power of money. Other powers might include Division of Labor, Competition, and Targeted Feedback to name a few. A Dynamic Democracy would incorporate many of these other powers, some of them being the power of the groups of people who are chosen in a random fashion with their own panel of judges.

The Nation-State as a mental construct has power because people act together and decide on rules and boundaries. But Nation-States can evolve, however, by putting mild counter stress on the system in the right places. We cannot wait for the unfocused energy of the crowd. Rather, we can structure the growth in the proper direction, like bracing a growing tree to grow upright. We can also push others to make some decision, even if that decision is a small one. Sports-like friendly competition to find and filter UI can also be useful.

A social hierarchy has many layers, each layer using and sometimes abusing the layer below. This is how bad feelings between various groups get started. What are people asked to do by their leaders? Some religions require 5 prayers each day. Many find it to be a source of strength. We cannot wait for extreme emotion to motivate crowds. We need to go into neighborhood communities and challenge individuals and small groups.

Standing at the starting line with a thousand runners ready to begin a race, the energy is palpable. Crowds can certainly feel and act differently than the interaction within small groups and individuals. We can still use competition in new ways, even with small groups. It may work start from outside the group. After all, we are social animals. We can push UI to other individuals and groups to push them uphill. This is the reverse of Stories in the Old Testament where other tribes were pushed downhill and vanquished. We can change the story. Are those guys the enemy or are they our younger siblings? It makes a difference.

Here in parts of the US we are starting a local process called Discovery Games (DG) with a dozen people who push other people to discover new ideas and information. We challenge players to take the game and run with it on their own.

Un-Corrupting the CIA

Posted on February 11, 2025February 11, 2025 by josuter

Our Secret by josuter

Corruption in the CIA is closely linked to keeping secrets, those things that only you and a few others know. It’s real power. Ask any 6-year old. Corruption, as defined by an engineer, is about elements on a circuit board that are simply not working as they should, so we say they have become corrupt and need to be replaced. It’s not about being good or bad. We all have good and bad in varying ratios.

Graham Fuller, ex-CIA analyst, says “I don’t know how you ‘un-corrupt’, if you will, an organization like CIA . . . and I suspect ‘un-corrupting’ really means establishing an organization in which there is an openness and willingness to speak truth to power and not be afraid and twist it.” This may be wishful thinking. After all, finding hidden information is the nature of the work of the CIA.

Take a group of top-level business people meeting in a secluded room. The first thing they do is fix prices. The walls that surround these people offer privacy and secrecy. Common sense would suggest more transparency, but if secrets are exposed a scapegoat will be offered for public humiliation, leaving the system unchanged. This happens at all levels and areas of society. It’s a part of how social hierarchies are made and maintained. We may not need transparency per se, but a way to separate useful information from the person who has that information.

Finding good questions will help. Finding good people can help too, but good feedback is really the key and can make up for weak questions and imperfect people. Good feedback depends greatly on the immediate environment. Who is in the room with you? What are their expectations, spoken or unspoken? What is their position and power over you? How confident can you be of their advice or of other options? Is one surrounded by people who celebrate a New Gaza Resort – all the while looking at others around them, carefully watching for the reaction in others too? Or is one surrounded by Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS), generally a saner group of people.

Recognizing the impossibility of getting the whole truth, one can get a good approximation with a structured approach. A “First Person Reviewer”, i.e. the boss who wants better information, can assign a question to 2 or 3 small teams with several people on each team, hand-picked by the boss of course. The questions should be hand delivered and include the names of others on each team. “I want a one-page report back tomorrow with all your signatures.” This may remove some of the boss’s ability to reward or punish but he or she will get better information.

Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle states that one cannot know both the exact position and the momentum of any particle. It’s either one or the other. So a boss can either retain his or her ability to reward and punish individuals – or get better information – but not both. The goal is to trap the truth, not the person. Still, it may be important to get rid of compulsive liars, something that can be done using a similar approach.

Herb Simon was known for his study of decision making and the theory of Bounded Rationality. Many people say that this means you simply get someone with a lot of experience who will just make their best guess. But what does the word “bounded” mean? It is more than simply trimming off the less probable options. Rather, it may reflect the importance of the group structure and process.

Government and Gradients

Posted on September 17, 2024 by josuter

Moving the Ship of State

Governance and Gradients by JoSuter September, 2024

The Problem – How to Find, Filter, and Move Useful Information?

Organization is what makes humans so powerful. Sometimes the organization of social groups is spontaneous but most organization requires a gradient (tension) to engage people. Then one level of people can direct the task of many others.

A gradient can also drive the search for useful information. If I pay you to look for A’s, you will find A’s but ignore all the B’s around. A gradient in another direction can be used to spread dis-information and create ignorance, even functional deafness, in people who cannot hear anyone outside their own circles.

In science and engineering, energy expended over a short time is called “power”. Political power too can get things done in a short time. Political power to create gradients comes in one of three forms with the acronym BMI: BOG – barrel of a gun, Money, and Information. BOG-power and Money can be very personal, BOG being a negative, coercive form of power and Money a more positive form. Social systems do better when these three are balanced.

The third power, Information, requires the separation of useful information from less useful information. But like the knight on the chessboard, information power can sometimes leapfrog layers of the social hierarchy. Spin must be separated by group discussion and good communication. This was a function of mainstream media in the past but now under corporate ownership, it becomes more difficult, especially when missing information is added to misinformation.

Stories as a form of information also help organize society. Stories can be strategic, long-term and very deep. Narratives on the other hand, can be thought of as short-term tactical measures. Players in a game will try to fake out the opponent, feeding them mis-information to make the opponent go the wrong way. They are using acceptable tactics. Outside these players may get along well and even be friends. Any attempt to hurt an opponent player outside of the game period, however, will be viewed as serious misinterpretation of the Larger Story. Yet, in international relations, it seems that taking out the leadership of another country is now acceptable. Boundaries disappear, replaced by wars of terror.

Spin, Lies, and Confabulation

It is becoming clear that governments are not leveling with the citizens about why we are in forever wars or what the costs will be. A spokesperson who intentionally lies must either believe that the audience is stupid or ignorant of the facts, something difficult to determine if there is no audience reaction.

Manifestations of Communication Breakdown

We all have our fears because of our limited view. We fear chaos. So we line up behind someone who looks and sounds like they know where they are going. Go with the flow. What are the neighbors doing? Signs of censorship indicate we may be falling into fascism with fear is a major factor. People won’t talk to each other if there is reason to fear loss of job or worse. We need a process that can push and pull others to engage but it will require some privacy and deniability while maintaining integrity of results.

Most of our current leaders never wore a uniform. They never carried a fellow soldier on the battlefield. Had they even been in a fist fight, they might realize that there are more layers to survival than verbal eloquence. So they try to act tough. Their fear is a fear of failure in the eyes of their hero, parent, teacher, or religious leader.

The Congressional Group-Think Exercise exhibits itself on a regular basis. Why? Fear. It is fear of each other or fear of some real or imagined person behind the curtain. This is much more than they fear voters who, on the whole, are not very organized.

The deep state (DS) does not have a CEO. There is no corporate structure. DS is a manifestation of breakdown in communication with inadequate feedback and often no accountability. A sufficient number of them are paranoid people who don’t trust those in the next department. Their technical prowess allows for increasing surveillance and gathering of secrets while at the same time blocking accountability. Outsiders rarely get beyond the answering machine. Furthermore, AI will make it difficult in to determine what is real and what is not in some situations. This will be a problem too for decision makers.

The DS might be held at bay by resistance and policy making at the top, but unless the communication and feedback problem is solved, the problem will return.

What to do when GR have the feeling that they are being lied to or simply not told the whole truth? Do we even want to know? Are people at the top stealing? Are they not listening? One cannot stop the media from spreading lies and mis-information. Nor can we reverse the convenient overlooking of necessary information or force them to tell the truth. What we can do is create ad hoc human search engines and filters.

A Solution – Series of Local Open Debates with Small Groups (SLODS)

Friedrich Hayek wrote that there is often no substitute for local information. Grassroots people have their ear to the ground and can be used as Small Group Sensors if the process is structured right. As Small Group sensors, GR citizens may exert more power and be more useful in the democratic process while creating a better way to make lasting change. But people are social beings and generally seek the safety of a group over seeking the truth. They do not want to face the world alone. What to do? Continue pressure at top? Yes, but start to change The Story at all levels with Local Open Debates and use of Small Groups as feedback sensors.

In the Cuban Missile Crisis, Kennedy learned that one should not want to humiliate your enemy. Instead help them to find a way out of the situation. Find another path or another story.

Focus on a few Decision Makers. Use specific questions. Try not to humiliate (initially) but push them to broaden their thinking. If there is no response then start a series of local open debates close to the home base of the Target Learner (TL). Family, Friends, and Colleagues (FFC) of the TL can also be candidates for learning. Mainstream media may not help. Use Small Mixed Groups (SMG). The goal is to find better, more useful information for everyone. Use SG’s to start other SG’s. Think about the process as a challenge or discussion question.

One large gradient = many small gradients. Small Groups can be used to push the process, even preliminary small groups that can start anywhere, by anyone, and ask any question. Recalcitrant people within institutions can be peeled away, one-by-one, to find new jobs.

Increase the tempo of debates. They can be started daily in most any part of the country, on any topic or question. Bogus and look-alikes will not sustain support from the GR. Privacy of group meetings alternating with public debates will allow people to work with those they don’t know or don’t like. Yet it is a tool to find better ideas and useful information.

Marx and Lenin believed that proletariats – or grass roots (GR) – will ultimately rule the nation. But the proletariats I know would rather fish or play ball. It’s not as if they can’t do the job, but they realize they don’t have the resources or network to rule over other people. So we allow ambitious people to take over and make decisions and these people lead and organize by whatever tools they have.

Summary:

We need not only better feedback but also the tension created by a gradient in order to engage the creative parts of our hearts and minds. As a type of organized information power, useful stories may contain knowledge needed to survive. A story must touch reality at some point in order to be effective. Bad stories can lead to bad decisions and some stories lead astray. What do people do when they realize their leader has led them down wrong path? We help that leader change The Story when it needs to be changed. Is it the destiny of humankind to fight battle after battle with other humans? That Story can be changed.

josuterdotcom

Tag: Power

Un-Corrupting the CIA