David’s Slingshot

Posted on November 23, 2024November 23, 2024 by josuter

David’s Slingshot

by John Suter November 2024

David the shepherd boy must have practiced a lot with his slingshot. Maybe a friend showed him how to use it to fight off wolves. Maybe they had games to shoot targets. In any case, he was really good with the weapon. When he picked up a stone to fight Goliath, he knew he could take down the giant. Accuracy over brute strength here was a key lesson.

A similar situation exists in the proliferation of nuclear weapons today. The weapons themselves have only grown larger, large enough so that one megaton bomb can wipe out an entire city. Despite the fact that there have been at least two episodes since the Cuban Missile Crisis that came very close to triggering an all-out nuclear war, many nations believe they will be safer if they get the bomb. The confluence of these events should make us search for other solutions – starting now.

The change in the story is that the new supersonic missiles (SSM) are highly accurate. The new incoming Secretary of Defense notes that Russian supersonic missiles can take out all the US aircraft carriers in 20 minutes. This is a huge change. This is also an opportunity to re-think the need and usefulness for these Goliath nuclear bombs themselves. It must be an inducement to find and make real change in how we approach national security.

How do we change this situation? Decisions on the use of Nuclear Weapons (NW) are being made not only by Decision Makers (DM) near the top of the government and military, but by advisors who, because of their ignorance or hubris, believe that a nuclear war could be won and we (they) could survive. (The consequences of a nuclear war are spelled out clearly in several books, including “The Doomsday Machine” by Daniel Ellsberg who worked for the RAND corporation and the government). People at or near the top need better information and better feedback that they will not get from their colleagues.

The changeover to a nuclear weapon-free world will take some thought, but it seems obvious that the SSM will have to be put into place first, primarily in countries that are near nuclear powers. These can be both nuclear and non-nuclear, large and small countries. Then they must communicate with Decision Makers and the Family, Friends, and Colleagues (DM-FFC) of existing of Nuclear Powers using hand-delivered letters every few months, letting them know that if any nuclear weapons are detonated in an offensive or defensive manner, that the DM-FFC will be “taken out”. This requires cooperation and planning by small groups of state and/or non-state actors from three or more states near a nuclear state. Target DMs must be specific and must be frequently reminded, both privately and publicly, of the consequences of their decision. Ironically, this may provide cover for those DM’s who can now say “we have no choice”. Alliances between nations can lead to traps, as we learned from WWI, but alliances of small nations to create feedback loops are more likely to stabilize the system.

What will stop us from looking for such new security structures? Fear. This includes personal fear of looking weak or being different. The folk tale “The Emperor’s New Clothes” is a tale about the fear of appearing stupid to others. It reflects how leaders can be fooled by their advisors and continue to move forward, even when the truth is blurted out by a child. But why did the people around the Emperor not give better feedback? Fear and ignorance. We live as social beings in groups, not simply as individuals. We take cues for our behavior from those around us. This is both a strength and a weakness. It can create a fear that makes us want to become stupid – or at least appear so.

The question of allegiance has taken a step down since the advent of dual citizenship for many leaders and advisors at high levels. They can hardly demand that anyone else say a pledge of allegiance when they themselves cannot do it. This may, however, reflect an evolution of the role of the nation-state. It also raises questions of religion, philosophy and other functions of government. Is the purpose of humankind to forever fight one another? Or is this warring behavior a function of the discovery of new weapons in the Christmas stocking of leaders who have no vision but want to remain in the fraternity? Most of this can be rectified with better communication and better feedback to leaders and to each other. Robert McNamara’s “In Retrospect” was a search for the reasons for the misleading and misguided sources of advice and information that led us astray and into the war in Vietnam. He never really found a way to counteract this problem.

At any level there are many decisions that are not really explicit decisions at all. There is no specific logical reason or information that causes the decision. There is a fear of looking weak or different. Members behave according to what they think is expected of them, either from their common Story or from a “thought leader” who may be re-living their own fears. Soldiers act differently toward civilians when they are in pairs versus being alone.

We must create processes and structures to Find, Filter, and Move Useful Information (FFMUI). Leaders alone, even with their advisors, do not have time to do it. Such a processes can be created by decision makers at the top without giving up power, but with the possibility of gaining useful information. Such structures should enhance privacy of discussion, integrity of the information, and efficiency.

Another situation that may benefit from a better process of information gathering and filtering is the Ukraine War with the obvious need for a future European Security Structure. If current political leaders cannot imagine such a structure, there are others waiting in the wings to move forward. People who have been elected but not yet officials cannot presume to negotiate with other governments but there are other people without office who could still meet and exchange ideas now to get the process started. These meetings can start at any level with stories, seeds of ideas, and tools of communication. This cannot be ordered but could be suggested by the new incoming administration.

Breaking Mirrors, Changing Stories

Posted on November 7, 2024 by josuter

Breaking Mirrors, Changing Stories

Israel and Iran mirror each other’s actions. Strike for strike. This is Israel’s game because Israel wants to draw US into the fight. This pattern could go on forever. War is a game like chess, with strategy and tactics. Make another move. Shatter the mirror and break the pattern. Stop Gulf Oil. Without use of force, Iran can simply make an announcement that all oil from gulf will stop until there is a permanent ceasefire. Iran is now in a position to do that. In the same way that Israel draws the US into the conflict, Iran can draw in other countries in a positive way to help put a stop to the conflict, stop the genocide in Gaza, and find a peaceful solution. Diplomats around the world will get their exercise and a chance to make things better.

Stories

Humans can live without games, but it is impossible to live without stories. Stories contain useful information for survival within a certain time and place. The clash of civilizations is a clash of stories. Thousands of years ago, when travel was very limited, it was a challenge to mix with others. In the jet age it’s easy to arrive at a place so different that it causes culture shock. Getting off the plane one notices that people who live in very different climates wear very different clothing, but that’s OK. After living there awhile it makes sense.

Lies and Misinformation

Nearly all of us remember a time during our childhood when we suddenly realized that what our parent or teacher was telling us was not true. It was a defining moment. Do we confront that parent or teacher? Do we try to understand why they would lie? Maybe we simply decided that words have a magic power and whatever the elders say must be true. That attitude would keep me in a comfortable spot, whereas confrontation would make my future less certain, but at least I would be my own person and make my own decisions.

Bad Stories

Recently an IDF soldier, who himself had children, was commanded to drive a bulldozer over houses where the cries of Palestinians women and children rang out. Not long after, that IDF soldier committed suicide. Should this be a surprise? The gap between story and reality was too great. Any story that turns children into cruel killers cannot be a good story. Many soldiers have doubts about their story. Why else would they send photos of their misdeeds? “Am I doing good?” “Is this OK?” Parents and friends who receive these photos are themselves unsure how to react. They certainly do not want to appear weak, and so they too continue to follow the same story.

Deceit in the Social Hierarchy

We all look for other people to push around. It makes us feel better and more important. The person being pushed is the stooge, the odd man out, or the patsy. Warren Buffet, in describing a poker game, said “If you don’t know who the patsy is, it’s YOU!” Public intellectuals commenting on international relations often wonder aloud “Why would they do that?” They may not realize the overwhelming need to have some stooge, some patsy. Who is the patsy in the forever wars? It is the American people, the Brits, citizens of the West who bankroll the Department of Defense. Running low on missiles? Don’t worry, the government will buy more. Cost? Whatever it takes. Sounds patriotic, right?

Good Stories have Power

Anyone can tell a story, but does that story have momentum, or “legs”, as they say? There are two factors in determining the effects of any story: 1. the number of listeners and 2. whether or not the story is connected to reality. Does it contain useful information? Good storytellers can sometimes have great power. The story of genocide in Gaza could be changed, but who will tell that other story? Religious leaders seem to have given up their storytelling power to political leaders of the nation-state, many of whom have dual citizenship. On a moral level this drops the status of the nation-state to the point where the nation-state loses the right to demand a pledge of allegiance. The important question now becomes “How do we get back on track – or evolve to something else?”

Old Stories

Are we really here to fight the battles of our ancestors? During the time of Amalek, there were many wandering small tribes fighting over resources. A careful reading of the Torah reveals that not all of Amalek’s tribe was destroyed but rather, like during football season, they came back to fight again. That was the story of their time. It is not the story for today.

Define words and concepts

Useful feedback is important for friend and foe alike. Clarify terms and question any single interpretation. “Birthright” described by Zionists is the very land of Israel. Deeper reflection on the meaning of the concept of birthright will include responsibility for taking care of the whole group, the whole tribe. Here the language of religion can help define roles. The most powerful God takes care of everyone, including those that I may not like.

Language of Religion

The role of the older sibling is to push the younger one to make positive decisions. Iran has been the patient older sibling for decades but now must push the younger sibling to do better and not destroy everything. People on both ends of a gun are pushing the other to make a decision. Which side of God might be on, in this situation, is not for us to judge, but it is interesting that during the reformation when people were being executed for their religious beliefs, the numbers among the martyrs grew. The recent public prayers by Muslim leaders also drew millions despite the risks. Why do people do that? Is it their belief in God or are they fighting for some righteous cause?

Opponents

The struggle between church and state is a struggle between stories. It may be a healthy struggle and create tensions that move people to think beyond themselves, to ask questions they would not otherwise. We can use tension toward positive outcomes.

Some of the change must be at the local level and depend on simply how we talk and debate. Create a division of labor to gather and filter the information. Divide issues. Make the process efficient or break the issue into smaller bites. Pay attention to the methods of finding and filtering information. The founding fathers were trying to prevent the re-accumulation of power in a few elites. They did not need everyone to vote, only a mix of people who knew how to read and write and were willing to debate.

Power Types

If we define power as “the ability to get things done – or the ability to slow down things that already have momentum”, then power is what we need. This all presumes that we have good information. One cannot do democracy with bad information. So types of power must include informational and economic power.

Focus Energy

A child who is continually ignored by their elders will kick them in the shins. Now they have their elder’s attention. But how does that translate to democracy? To reclaim democracy, we must find the right pressure points. This can be one function of local small group debates (SGD’s). Anyone who has a discussion question or a burning issue can start a debate at any level.

Secret Meetings and Money

There are always people around leaders who lurk in the shadows, feeding each other’s paranoia, yet unaccountable when it comes to writing history. In their own mind they may recall memories of real danger but still cannot see or imagine other pathways because of the limited company they keep. Lobbyists too yield an inordinate amount of leverage on politicians. Lobbyists don’t hide in the dark but they still use semi-private conversations and are difficult to neutralize – until one realizes the power of having useful information. Campaigns are fundamentally about information. Money is simply a tool to “get out the message” and it does work quite well, but voters who have better information will be able to see the direction we should be going.

Tools for Rebuilding Stories

The Genocide in Gaza has now lasted for more than a year. Why so long? Concurrently, western hegemony is undergoing de-construction. The United Nations and International Court of Justice seem to lack power, so they (or we) must find and use other types of power. It may be up to citizens to find a way to re-construct or evolve democracy according to what is needed.

Can democracy deal with the current world-changing events? Activists seem to be pushing the wrong direction or pushing the wrong people. Social media has been an essential tool, but social media alone will not be enough to turn the ship of state. We must find the bottlenecks and pressure points if we are to change from below. Government cannot “re-invent” itself without the help of feedback from the outside. Voting every 2 or 4 years is not enough feedback. We need feedback that is balanced and sometimes focused on a few individuals, not to embarrass but rather to push in a positive direction. This will require a Division of Labor for information gathering. Small group debates can make the difference.

Reclaiming Democracy – In 3 Steps

Posted on October 27, 2024 by josuter

A well-functioning democracy could have stopped the Gaza genocide within 2 months. It is a systematic failure because 1. we don’t know the pressure points, 2. there is inadequate feedback, and 3. there is simply too much information for any one person to know. Correction then requires 3 steps.

Step 1 – Locate the pressure points or bottlenecks here in this country. Engage in temporary slowing of commerce or transportation for one hour on one day. This does not have to be illegal but should be inconvenient. Spread flyers to indicate the reason this is being done. This may take repeated efforts to draw attention. Follow-up measures will depend on the response.

Step 2 – Missing Feedback. This used to be the job of mainstream media which seems to have dropped the ball. Change will not come from the top. Even with a new large media outlet that promises to “tell the truth”, how would anyone know? Other media outlets will attack it. The feedback will have to come from outside the system, even from the grassroots, using small groups to start local open debates. The acronym for this process is PIE: P for Privacy of discussion groups, I for Integrity of the information and ideas flowing through the process, and E for Efficiency. Debates can be done quickly allowing extra time for more complex issues, or it can be broken down into smaller bites.

As with any PIE recipe, the ingredients must be mixed first with players randomly assigned to teams. Politicians and decision makers who do not listen should be PIE-D with D representing the push for them to make some decision to clarify a position.

This process can not only be used for specific issues and specific legislation, but by changing the Discussion Question, it can be used to spread this process to other communities. It’s like a game of baseball.

STEP 3 – Division of Labor for Information Gathering. This may tend to happen automatically if step 2 is done properly. Local, state, and national issues lend themselves to a division of labor that can be useful for voters. Feedback to decision makers and to other citizens will help provide the necessary feedback.

All of these steps can be started at the grass roots without a central authority.